A new autism study out today by UC Davis finds ten areas in California where autism seems to flourish...
Two of those areas, or clusters as they call them in the study, are located in the counties of San Francisco, Marin and San Mateo.
My vote, and the LA Times agrees is that it's probably more about education the environment, "In one respect, the results were not surprising because it has long been known that high-income, highly educated white parents are more likely to have their children diagnosed with autism and more likely to have them diagnosed at an early age."
Another factor is the father's age... If you've spent any time in Marin, you'll notice the average dad's age is a bit higher...
I'm not a doctor, not do I play one on TV, but if you're looking for more, head on over to Google news
After fighting with B of A for seven months to re-fi my mortgage, I can tell you the words, "Loan Ceiling Extended" are meaningless... But if you're into, or looking to re-fi your's the government has good news for you...
From the NY Times
BUYERS of homes in high-priced markets have some reason to cheer: the federal government recently extended through 2010 the maximum dollar amount for “conforming loans.” This will probably mean better options for borrowers who might otherwise have had to take out “jumbo” mortgages.
Conforming loans meet all the guidelines of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-controlled agencies that resell packages of loans to investors, and are therefore eligible for purchase by these agencies. Jumbo mortgages, issued in amounts above the government’s maximum, are nonconforming. Because lenders assume less risk in making conforming loans, the interest rates are usually lower.
click here for the complete New York Times story http://bit.ly/2f0cgp
Buyers in the Driver's Seat: U.S. Homebuyers Paid $7,039 Less Than Listing Price in July
Florida Markets Make Up 14 of Top 25 Markets Where Buyers Can Negotiate, According to July Zillow® Real Estate Market Reports
I do want to mention right off the top that there isn't a single town in the great state of California on the list, but it just goes to re-enforce what we all know, it's a buyers' market...
Amid continued falling home prices, U.S. homebuyers are negotiating even more discounts at the bargaining table, according to July's Zillow Real Estate Market Reports. Buyers paid 3.3 percent, or a nearly $7,039, less than the last listing price on homes for sale(1) during the month of July. That is down slightly from 3.5 percent, or $7,630, in June, and substantially down from 4.6 percent ($10,260) in January.
Meanwhile, 22.8 percent of all homes listed for sale on Zillow had at least one listing price reduction(2) as of Sept. 1, 2009. The median U.S. price reduction(3) was 6.5 percent off the original listing price. Homes listed for sale on Zillow during August were listed for a median 96 days(4), up from 91 in July.
Florida homebuyers had the most negotiating power in July, with buyers in the Vero Beach metropolitan statistical area (MSA) paying 10.2 percent, or a median $23,500, less than the last listing price. Buyers in the Sarasota MSA paid 8.2 percent less than list price. The Naples, Daytona Beach, Miami-Fort Lauderdale, Panama City, Punta Gorda, Melbourne, Ocala, Tampa, Jacksonville, Port St. Lucie, Gainesville and Lakeland MSAs also ranked, in that order, in the top 25 markets for negotiation.
There was less or no room for negotiation in some California markets that have been hard-hit by foreclosures. In the El Centro MSA, buyers paid 1.8 percent, or a median of $2,150, more than the listing price. In seven California markets -- Sacramento, Merced, Modesto, Riverside, Stockton, Yuba City and Fresno -- asking price and sale price were the same(5).
"The strong summer selling season in 2009 has led to a decreasing difference between the last listing price and final sale price, but most buyers are still getting some additional discount at selling time," said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. "We expected list-to-sale price ratios to fall as the sales volume picked up during the summer, and the California markets are showing strong declines in the discount off the last listing price, relative to levels at the start of the year. This is fueled both by increased sales and high proportion of foreclosures re-sales, which are already priced relatively low.
"The fact that many Florida markets are still showing comparatively higher differences between the last listing price and final sale price suggests that inventory levels are still relatively high, keeping considerable downward pressure on prices and encouraging buyers to seek large discounts off the listing price. Overall, buyers are finding favorable conditions for negotiating prices, and now can be a good time to buy, provided homebuyers are financially prepared with healthy down payments and intend to stay in their home for a minimum of five to seven years."
Before we get to Jack's post, let me say this... Everyday I get Tweets or Facebook posts from agents letting me know "they're tired," the kids were up late" or "the movie really sucked."
For the record I don't care.... I suspect many of you feel the same way.... Now before you tell me to unfriend them or stop following them on Twitter I want to make a point....
Everday agents go out of their way to point out how tech savvy there are... They love to tell clients they have a Facebook page or annouce across a crowd room they Twitter... It's all fine and grand, but have a strategy. Figure out the reason you want to Twitter, or post something to Facebook... Just becuase I have a nice set of knives doesn't make me a chef...
I'll let Jack prove my point...
You Want it When?
by Jack McLaughlin
We have surrounded ourselves with gadgets, all with essentially one purpose – to collapse the amount of time it takes for us to get critical information. The Internet is the perfect delivery medium, and the goal is to get what you need, be it text, video or photos, in the precise moment when events are unfolding. You can track airline flights, stocks, satellite images and traffic, all in real time. Despite government efforts, the Iran revolution was blogged to the world in real time, using the micro blog site Twitter.
But what if you want current information on the Marin County real estate market? That’s where I come in, your RealTime Realtor. Every Wednesday and Thursday in Marin, new listings are open for brokers only, before they are available to the public. I visit the most intriguing of these homes, take a photo or two, rate the home and instantly post it to my Twitter site. My ratings and comments are candid and honest. If a home is a deal, I’ll tell you, and if it’s a dud, you’ll know that, too.
You can call me or text me for more information, and I will wait at the home if you want to see it right away. Looking in a particular town and price range? Tell me in advance and I will send you photos and data from homes that will interest you, all in RealTime. And of course, like all the best Internet services, it is absolutely free.
How do you subscribe? If you don’t already belong, take a minute to join Twitter (free) then search for MarinBroker and click on “follow”. For best results, turn ON “Device Updates”, put in your mobile number, and you will get my posts on your cell phone or other device. Do it now to get your Marin real estate data from your RealTime Realtor!
Bug! Real Estate, San Francisco`s neoteric real estate brokerage, today unveiled
its new Web site, www.bugrealestate.com, which features user-focused tools and
information to help Bay Area buyers and sellers understand and evaluate real
estate properties. Now home buyers and sellers can get information in a variety
of ways, from having their questions answered by an experienced agent in a live
online chat session to, for the first time, being able to search for homes based
on their desired monthly payment. Bug! Real Estate`s Web site also features the
360 Degree Mash-Up, which provides highly specific local data, including FBI
crime statistics, school information and walk scores.
A new study out today by Bankrate Inc. finds closing costs coming down. According to the report the average closing fell by about 12 percent.
San Francisco though had the 4th highest closing costs in the country at $3,117, down 6 percent from the year before.
The strangest thing in the study, which you can find by clicking here, the great state of California accounts for two states, the great state of San Francisco, and the great state of Los Angeles where closing costs came in at $2,861.
Contract activity for pending home sales has risen for six straight months, a pattern not seen in the history of the index since it began in 2001, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
The Pending Home Sales Index,1 a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in July, increased 3.2 percent to 97.6 from a reading of 94.6 in June, and is 12.0 percent higher than July 2008 when it was 87.1. The index is at the highest level since June 2007 when it was 100.7.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the housing market momentum has clearly turned for the better. “The recovery is broad-based across many parts of the country. Housing affordability has been at record highs this year with the added stimulus of a first-time buyer tax credit,” he said.
Online real estate broker Redfin today
announced the availability of the Redfin App on the App Store. The app lets
iPhone and iPod touch users view homes for sale on the Multiple Listing
Services (MLS) and upload photos and notes from a home tour to Redfin's
real-estate search site.
A Fast, Full-Featured Real-Estate Application for iPhone and iPod touch
Built by the team that coded Redfin's search website, the Redfin App delivers
a complete search experience built from the ground up to run fast and work
well on the iPhone and iPod touch. Users can locate nearby listings or open
houses using location-based services or search any neighborhood by name or
postal code, filtering the search by property type, square footage or the
number of bedrooms and bathrooms.
The Redfin App displays listings quickly using Google Maps, and includes every
photo and feature of the listing, all in a native format that loads quickly
and supports easy, gestured-based navigation using Apple's Multi-Touch user
interface.
Another reason as a real estate agent you to do more than offer MLS access...
If you like the idea of reading, and reading something somewhat related to what you do for a living, my choice of the month is “Busted”
It’s told first person by the NY Times financial writer who got himself caught up in the mortgage mess...
The book is surprisingly good consider how bad the reviews are.... It offers good insight into how the mess began and who someone, in this case the writer, got caught up in the whole mess...
Here’s a synopsis from Publishers Weekly
Starred Review. As I write in February 2009, I am four months past due on my mortgage and bracing for foreclosure proceedings to begin. Thus begins this cautionary and critical examination of the housing crisis, a story that turned personal when New York Times economics reporter Andrews got caught up in the housing bubble after falling in love with a woman and a house. Bringing in $120,000 a year in salary—most of which went to child support and alimony to his ex-wife, Andrews says he was able to get a don't ask, don't tell mortgage with the assumption that his new wife, Patty, would be able to get a job to keep them afloat, an expectation that didn't work out as planned. Because of his economics journalism background, Andrews says he should have avoided the mortgage catastrophe, and he castigates himself as well as fellow borrowers, the financial industry that took advantage of them and a government that didn't put the brakes on the crisis that many economists warned about but that Alan Greenspan, the Bush administration and others ignored. This deeply personal exposé is timely and sobering in its candor.
For years I've had to listen to Marin residents tell me Marin County was the most expensive real estate in America... Sort of a nutty story, but one they love to spread...
So today America's magazine of lists, Forbes put out their list of America's most expensive ZIP codes... Yep, nothing from Marin in the top ten... So lets put the story to rest today...
Here are the top ten, but the articles (click here) goes through the top 100
Have we hit bottom in the San Francisco real estate market? We explore the state of the real estate market in the San Francisco Bay Area: where are the hot areas? Are we trending up or down?
This video includes interviews with San Francisco and Marin County real estate agents, as well as footage from San Francisco, Mill Valley, Noe Valley and the East Bay.
Highlights of C.A.R.’s resale housing figures for July 2009:
. C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes in July 2009 was 3.9 months, compared with 6.9 months (revised) for the same period a year ago. The index indicates the number of months needed to deplete the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate.
. Thirty-year fixed-mortgage interest rates averaged 5.22 percent during July 2009, compared with 6.43 percent in July 2008, according to Freddie Mac. Adjustable-mortgage interest rates averaged 4.82 percent in July 2009, compared with 5.24 percent in July 2008.
. The median number of days it took to sell a single-family home was 39.9 days in July 2009, compared with 47.8 days (revised) for the same period a year ago.
Regional MLS sales and price information are contained in the tables that accompany this press release. Regional sales data are not adjusted to account for seasonal factors that can influence home sales. The MLS median price and sales data for detached homes are generated from a survey of more than 90 associations of REALTORS throughout the state. MLS median price and sales data for condominiums are based on a survey of more than 60 associations. The median price for both detached homes and condominiums represents closed escrow sales.
In a separate report covering more localized statistics generated by C.A.R. and DataQuick Information Systems, 23 of the 398 cities and communities reporting showed an increase in their
respective median home prices from a year ago. DataQuick statistics are based on county records data rather than MLS information. DataQuick Information Systems is a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates. (The lists are generated for incorporated cities with a minimum of 30 recorded sales in the month.)
Note: Large changes in local median home prices typically indicate both local home price appreciation, and often, large shifts in the composition of housing market activity. Some of the variations in median home prices for July may be exaggerated due to compositional changes in housing demand. The DataQuick tables listing median home prices in California cities and counties are accessible through
Statewide, the 10 cities with the highest median home prices in California during July 2009 were: Los Altos, $1,425,500; Palo Alto, $1,363,000; Saratoga, $1,350,000; Newport Beach, $1,300,000; Manhattan Beach, $1,257,500; Burlingame, $1,250,000; Palos Verdes Estates, $1,132,000; Los Gatos, $1,085,000; Cupertino, $952,000; and Rancho Palos Verdes $945,000.
Statewide, the cities with the greatest median home price increases in July 2009 compared with the same period a year ago were: Laguna Hills, 40.5 percent; Newport Beach, 13.5 percent; Moorpark, 11.2 percent; Poway, 10.8 percent; San Marcos, 8.6 percent; Emeryville, 7.6 percent; Santa Barbara, 6.3 percent; Arcadia, 5.8 percent; Big Bear Lake, 5.5 percent; and West Hollywood, 5 percent.
I've been saying it for months... We've hit bottom and things will be picking up... I think it was June that I predicted the big turn around... The June numbers are out today, and here are the highlights from the S&P Case-Shiller report...
San Francisco/Bay Area up 3.8% May to June - still down 22% over one year
Of the twenty cities the report tracks, only Detroit and Las Vegas we still looking at declining prices
Dallas and Denver have reported four consecutive months of positive returns
The top twenty cities combined has a price increase from May to June of 1.4%
This has to be one of the great dumb ideas of all time... A new website, National BLS helps connect sellers and buyers because there’s no one already doing it? Last time I checked there were about a 10,000 agents offering access to the MLS on their sites... Not to mention realtor.com redfin.com and the hundreds of MLS direct sites....
Here's what makes BLS such a stand out in the stupid category...
The idea is to make a site where sellers can find buyers to make them an offer... Hate to break the news to the sellers, but IT’S A BUYERS’ MARKET....
Quoting an article the BLS website....
“NationalBLS is the first national listing service of pre-approved residential real estate buyers. It's a marketplace where buyers anonymously post their requirements to the web and receive offers from eager sellers. It's real estate in reverse.”
Seems to me real estate has been working fine in forward, why go in reverse?
Not only are the folks at National BLS under the impression it’s a sellers’ market, they also believe finding a real estate agent is a challenge....
Even better the company charges for its services....
Here’s a link to the article, but if you’re looking for a good agent, give me a shout I know plenty of them...
Better yet, just call Nick Cooper with McGuire Real Estate (415.233.2911), he can hook ya with someone he trusts, or Nick himself... Nick Cooper is the new black, just ask the folks at C.A.R.
It’s the perfect condo for working professionals. Located right along the Embarcadero, it’s in the center of everything – from downtown shopping to the Ferry Building’s farmers market. The pad includes your very own walk-in closet, upgraded steel fixtures and custom bamboo floors (for that healthy green glow). Swing by for a quick peak and then enjoy a yummy weekend brunch downstairs along the waterfront.
According to the Zillow Q2 Homeowner Confidence Survey, homeowners are more optimistic than ever about the future values of their homes, with 81% of homeowners believing their own homes’ values will not decline in the next six months. Still, more than half (60%) of homeowners believe their own home lost value in the past 12 months. In reality, 83% of homes lost value during that time, according to Zillow’s Q2 Real Estate Market Reports.
I can tell you first hand that my house is still dropping in value.
I'm in the SEVENTH my of refinancing my house and between the first and second appraisals the value dropped roughly $30,000... Yes, banks now require two appraisals... Once all the papers are signed, do I have a story to tell
Others from around the Bay area telling the same story I reported last week; Morgan Lane is planing to take it's bride's name and go with Pacific Union... Got a few letters and even a call saying that come December the Morgan Lane name will be a thing of the past...
As always, if you know otherwise, leave me a note in the comments
Sources who I have no reason to doubt have just told me the Morgan Lane name change is coming... The big catch, the adults in charge have decided to ditch the Morgan Lane name and go with Pacific Union... Being the responsible blogger that I am, I made a few calls... Another sources tells me the original agreement was for Pacific Union to become a franchise of Morgan Lane, but as one insider said, agreements in real estate fall like prices....
So if you know anything I don’t, drop me a note...
According to the good folks at ForeclosureRadar, the foreclosure business is the great state of California isn't slowing....
Here's how the Wall Street Journal put it...
Lookout, below. California could get hit by a new wave of foreclosure sales.
Notices of default, which mark the first step in the foreclosure process, fell by 1.5% in July from June but increased by 12% from one year ago, according to ForeclosureRadar, which tracks California foreclosure sales.
Meanwhile, filings for notice of trustee sales, which show the number of properties scheduled for a foreclosure sale, increased by nearly 32% in July from June. New trustee sale notices, excluding those sales that have been canceled or already taken place, rose to a record level of nearly 125,000 in July, up 10% from one month ago and nearly double the levels during the 2008 foreclosure peak.
The increases in pre-foreclosure notices came after foreclosure auction sales fell by 23% in June, ending three straight months of increases. California had 17,000 foreclosure sales in July, a 40% drop from the July 2008 high. Nearly 45% of sales resulted in prices that were at least half of the original loan balance.
It's not my best photographic work, for that you can thank my Blackberry, but point is the good folks at Pacific Union Greenbrae have moved on... found the trucks there this morning... Rumor has it the place was renting for a whooping $38,000 a month, but is back on the market at an even higher price...
I'm always amazed how fast they take down the signage.
Following on the heels of my announcement it's time to buy, Zillow comes out supporting 100 percent...
Here's how they put it...
Key facts:
U.S. Home values fell 12.1 percent year-over-year, marking the 10th consecutive quarter of declines, however Q2 was the first quarter where national declines are not growing.
Total home sales fell 23.7 percent in June versus a year earlier. In the short term, total home sales rose 3.8 percent in June versus May.
Negative equity: More than one-fifth (23 percent) of all owners of single family homes with mortgages owe more on a mortgage than their home is currently worth.
Foreclosure re-sales made up 22 percent of all home sales in June.
Homes sold for loss: 29.2 percent of sellers sold homes in June for less than the previous purchase price.
Home values in the United States posted their 10th consecutive quarterly decline, falling 12.1 percent year-over-year to a Zillow Home Value Index(1) of $186,500, according to the second quarter Zillow Real Estate Market Reports(2). But for the first time since home values started to fall in 2007, the rate of year-over-year decline has shrunk slightly compared to the previous quarter, with home values falling 12.1 percent as opposed to 12.4 percent year-over-year in the first quarter. The Zillow Home Value Index measures the value of all homes in an area, and the Q2 Real Estate Market Reports encompass 161 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs).
Home values have flattened significantly in the short term, with the Zillow Home Value Index falling 2.7 percent from the first quarter to the second quarter, and falling only 0.9 percent from May to June.
Nationally, the total number of home sales in June fell 23.7 percent versus a year earlier. However, total home sales rose 3.8 percent in June versus May. Additionally, in 39 markets, home sales increased year over year. Some of these larger markets include Miami-Fort Lauderdale, Los Angeles and Phoenix.
Despite encouraging signs in some markets, distress signals tracked by Zillow remain high, suggesting that for most U.S. metropolitan areas the bottom of the market has not yet arrived, at least in terms of home values.
Negative equity(3) remains high, with 23 percent of all owners of single family homes with mortgages owing more on their mortgage than their home is currently worth, relatively flat compared to 22 percent in the first quarter. Foreclosure re-sales(4) made up more than one-fifth (22 percent) of all home sales nationally in June, and 29.2 percent of all homes sold in June were sold for less than what the owner originally paid.
Meanwhile, 29 percent of homeowners say they would be at least somewhat likely to put their home on the market if they see signs of a turnaround, according to Zillow's second quarter Homeowner Confidence Survey(5), signaling an abundance of potential shadow inventory waiting in the wings.
"While we are encouraged by the increasing sales in many markets and the overall improvement in the rate of decline of the Zillow Home Value Index, I hesitate to be overly optimistic for the near future," said Dr. Stan Humphries, Zillow chief economist. "There are still many hurdles to true market recovery. Foreclosure re-sales are buoying overall sales numbers, but their low prices are keeping home values down. Reports of increasing mortgage defaults signal that foreclosures are likely to increase again and peak in mid-2010. With increasing unemployment and high rates of negative equity, we have a fertile breeding ground for even more foreclosures, which add to the already-high level of for-sale inventory that needs to be cleared before values begin to rise.
"While the abundance of affordable foreclosure properties is a boon for many first-time homebuyers, I don't believe we'll see significant recovery until demand-side fundamentals improve, and more move-up and move-across buyers re-enter the market."
A real estate market bottom may be closer in some areas than in others. Eighteen of 142 declining MSAs have posted at least three consecutive quarters of smaller year-over-year home value declines, signaling a true trend. Nine of those markets are in California, where housing markets have been hard-hit by foreclosures and declining values. Those markets are:
Los Angeles MSA
Home values there have fallen 34.8 percent from the peak of the market in 2006.
Sales were up substantially in June, rising 11.4 percent compared to the same time last year.
The Zillow Home Value Index fell 14.9 percent, compared to 18.6 percent in the first quarter.
San Diego MSA
Home values have fallen 35.7 percent since the peak of the market in 2005.
Sales were up 9.7 percent year-over-year in June.
The Zillow Home Value Index fell 14.5 percent year-over-year in Q2, compared to 18.1 percent in Q1.
Stockton, Calif. MSA
Home values have fallen 60.9 percent since the market peaked in 2006.
In June, sales were down 12 percent year-over-year.
The Zillow Home Value Index fell 29.9 percent in the second quarter, compared to 32.9 percent in the first quarter.
Foreclosures continue to be an issue, however, with 69.2 percent of all sales in June being foreclosure re-sales.
Other California markets with three consecutive quarters of shrinking year-over-year declines are:
Oxnard MSA
Santa Rosa-Petaluma MSA
Modesto MSA
Vallejo-Fairfield MSA
Yuba City MSA
Napa MSA
So for every one of you who has complained for years at every cocktail party I've attended that they wished they had bought real estate ten years ago, today is that day... Prices are at ten year lows in some cases, money is relatively cheap and as you've been telling your friends every fricken day, "We've been saving for years, we're just need the right moment." Today is that moment....
ZipRealty offered up the proof today I've been talking about for months...
The U.S. housing market continues to show signs of stabilization with the fifteenth consecutive month-over-month decline in the number of home listings, according to a monthly survey of home listings conducted by the national real estate brokerage ZipRealty conducted in 28 metropolitan markets where the brokerage operates.
The combined total number of single family homes and condos listed for sale according to Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data decreased in July by 2.5 percent compared to June, bringing the total number of active listings in 28 major U.S. markets to 679,748.
Additionally, ZipRealty tracked a year-over-year decrease in housing inventory of 28.5 percent. Factors such as declining inventory and strong activity from buyers may be contributing to rising asking prices, with the median list price increasing nationally last month and agents in California reporting an increase in the number of homes receiving multiple offers in several markets.
I have no idea who owns the website StyleCrave, but they’ve gone and created their own list of the ten most overpriced (oops!), I mean priciest homes in San Francisco... The list is getting pretty familiar, but if you haven’t seen it in while, it’s a good refresher....
According to folks who claim to be in a position to know, I've been told if you're an agent at Pacific Union get ready to order new business cards and open house signs... I was told that the folks at Morgan Lane have decided to change to name, the news is forthcoming...
If your a fan of lists, and who isn’t... I’m sure you’ll like this one...
The Natural Resource Defense Council put out its list of top ten cities of the future... What that means is this...
“Cities that are well-positioned for the future are making investments that will create healthier places to live and smarter environments for businesses. That's the basic premise of the Natural Resources Defense Council's Smarter Cities project, which ranks small, medium, and large cities every year based on a number of criteria from air quality to green space to standard of living.”
Making the list in order are:
1. Seattle
2. San Francisco
3. Portland
4. Oakland
5. San Jose
6. Austin
7. Sacramento
8. Boston
9. Denver
10. Chicago
Feel free to throw this one in while you’re driving clients around the City....
Pending home sales are up for the fifth consecutive month, the first time in six years for such a streak, according to the National Association of Realtors.
The Pending Home Sales Index,1 a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in June, rose 3.6 percent to 94.6 from an upwardly revised reading of 91.3 in May, and is 6.7 percent above June 2008 when it was 88.7. The last time there were five consecutive monthly gains was in July 2003.
I came across this on the Business Week real estate blog.... It is without question as niche as you can go... Daniel Berman is selling himself as the vegetarian Realtor...
He says on his site that a vegetarian Realtor's beliefs make a difference in the way he conducts his business...
“Why would it matter that you, as a vegetarian, have a real estate agent who is also a vegetarian? Simply stated, it’s a matter of shared values, an approach to life and a way of relating to others. If you’ve been a vegetarian (or vegan) for any length of time, you know what I mean.”
I should probably point out this blog is vegetarian as well...
You can read more about Daniel at his site, click here.
And if nothing else, being the veggie Realtor did get him some free press
The soon to be former head of Pacific Union has sent out to agents his impressions of the current market... Keep in mind this is the first time I've ever seen an Avram note, but I like it... If your a seller, read up, he's talking to you...
Across The Great Divide by Avram Goldman:
"Although average sales price has been increasing since the beginning of summer, it is once again showing a decreasing trend with the vast majority of sales under the million dollar mark.
The deep divide is reflected in Marin, which is one of the highest priced counties in the Bay Area. In July there were 1210 single family listings—621 under a million of which 38% of them were in escrow, 359 in the one to two million dollar range of which 19% were in escrow, and 230 over two million of which only 7% were in escrow. If you looked at all of the listings over one million, only 14.6% are in escrow or about one in seven listings.
There are many reasons why this could be occurring. Loans over the conforming limits are still more difficult to obtain, as lenders continue to require larger down payments, interest rates continue to be higher than conforming loans, and lender appraisals make for more challenging negotiations. Many sellers on the market are still testing the waters because either lower asking prices would put them under water or they think that their homes are unique and unusual, believing that buyers would be willing to overlook comparable homes that have sold for less. Today’s WSJ article confirms these observations.
As I tour new listings around the Bay Area, I find that only about 10% of these new listings over a million dollars have a real chance of selling at or near their asking prices. The others will wallow on the market, many having to reduce their prices until they finally have a willing buyer. Some sellers receive offers which they consider too low and they reject them. Ironically, over time the list price falls below the offer price. Had the seller taken the initial offer, they could have saved time, money, and stress.
Once such listing that I toured was on the market over a year ago at $2.5 mil. They were presented an offer of $2.2 mil. The seller felt it was too low, so they declined the offer. Subsequently they took their home off the market and rented it. Now the sellers have decided to put it back on the market once again, listing it for $1.9 mil. Unfortunately we see this pattern far too often.
The bulk of sales in most market places fall below the $700K mark. The vast majority of multiple offers are in the lower price ranges where there is strong activity for well priced homes such as the Berkeley 2 bedr./1ba. home listed at $495K receiving 15 offers or the Oakland 4bedr./4ba. home priced at $600K garnering 7 offers. First time buyers are excited by the price declines that have occurred over the last 2 years. As I have reported previously, many homes in the over million price range require more air to be let out of their prices. The upper end is not immune to price declines, it has just been slower in coming.
I want to make it clear that there are exceptions to all rules. There are still properties in the over million dollar range that are attracting multiple offers. These are usually homes in areas of great demand that are priced well and are staged impeccably.
Not every home in the lower price ranges is selling like hotcakes. There are many listings that sit as sellers and/or lenders have unrealistic price points or refuse to make the necessary repairs and/or stage in order to make these homes more appealing.
Although there are some positive trends in the economy, the housing market will continue to slog along. Homes will continue to sell, but only those that accommodate market realities. We will be selling more homes in the second half of this year over last year for the same period, with the bulk in the lower price ranges. The upper end will struggle until listing prices become more realistic, lenders are assured that values have stabilized and therefore willing to lend more freely, and more consumers begin to feel that the worst is behind us. It will happen; it is only a matter of time."
Back when I worked for one of the fancy 24 hour news networks we use to joke that it didn't matter what we said if the Associated Press (AP) said otherwise. I could be standing in front of a burning building relying the details back to my bosses in New York, but if the AP reported the building wasn't on fire, then it wasn't on fire. Didn't matter I was staring straight into the flames.
With that said, I'm only to happy to report the AP is declaring the California's real estate market has hit bottom and the signs of a recovery are already underway.
Also in an effort not to upset the AP, who rightly or wrongly believes everyone is stealing their stories, I'll direct you to their story...
AP analysis: Foreclosures stabilize in key states
By MIKE SCHNEIDER and CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER (AP) – 6 hours ago
Even as Americans suffer rising unemployment, foreclosure rates in three states hit hardest by the housing bust — California, Arizona and Florida — stabilized in June, offering hope that the worst of the real estate crisis is over, according to The Associated Press' monthly analysis of economic stress in more than 3,100 U.S. counties.
If you’re into high end home magazines offering listings from around the world, inside Friday’s Wall Street Journal you’ll find, “Century 21’s Fine Homes & Estates”. It’s 57 pages of over the top homes from around the world. If nothing else, it’s a great resource for new marketing terms for tired fliers.
Until then the good folks over at the WAV Group have put out a free white paper on the topic , and below you’ll find a brief summary from their blog.
The Advertising Age has Ended, the Edutizing Era has Begun Consumers simply do not want to be “sold” anymore.
They have become cynical about advertising claims and “its all about me” advertising. They dont want to hear an agents claims of greatness. They want to understand what you can do for them. They want to know that your claims are backed up by legitimate experience and insights you can bring to them. They want you to prove why you are the best agent or broker for them. Simply making promises of greatness is not enough to attract consumers anymore. Customers trust brands in the same way they trust other people. When a company performs consistently against its stated values and follows through on commitments consumers generally trust them. Those that say one thing and do another are those who are abandoned after their one chance.
If you’re interested in downloading a copy of the report, and I highly suggest you do, click here and once on the site, simply click on the report.
I've mentioned in the past that condo developers here in the City have been doing everything they can to avoid reducing prices. I know friends who have managed to get as much as $50,000 in upgrades or mortgage buy downs to avoid a price reduction... All in an effort to avoid refunding money to buyers with deposits when the prices start to fall...
With the condo market still in decline, prices are now catching up with reality...
S.F. condo builders whacking prices to sell units
San Francisco Business Times - by J.K. Dineen
From the sexy curved glass penthouses at the Infinity to stucco tenancy in commons in the Mission District, condo buyers with cash to invest in new housing are seeing some of the best deals in decades.
Prices have been slashed 30 percent at new construction projects like Tishman Speyer’s Infinity, Lennar’s 103-unit Blu on Folsom St. and Bosa Development’s 99-unit Radiance. Condos originally priced at $850,000 at the South Financial District’s Blu are now selling for $650,000. Average sales prices for tenancy-in-common units in the Mission District have fallen 35 percent in the past two years, according to Randall Kosick of Zephyr Real Estate. Across the city, median sales prices have dropped from $835,000 to $635,000 since the spring of 2007, according to Socketsite, an online publication that tracks residential real estate in San Francisco.
May marks the second consecutive month of positive returns. I know the numbers are small, but in the right direction none the less.
I know everyone would love to say we’ve hit bottom and it’s all sunshine and roses from here, but probably not the case.
Money is still tight, plenty of high end homes sitting around lots of buyers still waiting for prices to drop further.
Here's the Wall Strret Journals take on events...
By KERRY GRACE BENN
U.S. home prices continued their multiyear slide in May, according to the S&P Case-Shiller home-price indexes, although the indexes showed their fourth-straight month of slightly smaller declines and increased month-to-month for the first time in nearly three years.
Sixteen of 20 major metropolitan areas posted price declines of more than 10% from a year earlier, with the Sun Belt continuing to be hit the hardest. Nationally, home prices are at levels similar to the middle of 2003.
Separately, U.S. consumer confidence retreated once again in July, a report released Tuesday said.
David M. Blitzer, chairman of S&P's index committee, said the pace of descent appears to be slowing. "While many indicators are showing signs of life in the U.S. housing market, we should remember that on a year-over-year basis home prices are still down about 17% on average across all metro areas, so we likely do have a way to go before we see sustained home-price appreciation," he said.
As of May, the 10-city index is down one-third from its mid-2006 peak and the 20-city is down 32%. The two indexes posted their first monthly increases in 34 months.
New-home sales soared in June from the previous month, the third increase in a row and supplying fresh evidence the housing market is beginning to recover from its long crisis.
Sales of single-family homes increased by 11.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 384,000 compared to the prior month, the Commerce Department said Monday. Though, year-over-year, new-home sales were 21.3% lower than the level in June 2008.
The median price for a new home was $206,200 in June, down 12.0% from $234,300 in June 2008. On a monthly basis, the price fell from May 2009's $219,000.
According to the Wall Street Journal three of the best selling neighborhoods in America are right here in the Bay Area... These aren't the neighborhoods we typically talk about... Two of them are in Oakland and the other is Richmond... The info comes from Zip Reality...
Hot Zips
From the WSJ blog...
Where are sellers receiving offers that are beating their asking prices?
Try looking at neighborhoods where lots of bargain-priced foreclosures are driving bidding wars between buyers. Unsurprisingly, neighborhoods that have been glutted with foreclosures are leading the ranking of the “hottest” zip codes in a survey of the highest sales-to-list price ratios by ZipRealty, an online brokerage.
Youngtown, Ariz., tops the hottest zip code list, with homes selling in the Phoenix fringe suburb for 11% above their asking price during the second quarter, followed by the 90731 zip in San Pedro, Calif., a blue-collar Los Angeles suburb, where offers topped asking prices by nearly 10%. The list of hot zip codes includes a mix of similar middle-class suburbs close to city centers, such as Richmond, a San Francisco Bay Area community.
In an effort to win your business, Zillow is now offering a new toy called True Cost... Zillow claims it helps cut through all the confusion of trying to find the real price of a mortgage... And seeing how Zillow is for the most part in the Mortgage business, why not...
Here's how Zillow put it...
Real estate web site Zillow.com® today introduces True Cost, a new comparison feature within Zillow Mortgage Marketplace that allows borrowers to shop anonymously across multiple loan programs, compare custom quotes and find the most affordable home loan for them. The True Cost feature calculates up front how much a borrower will pay in interest and fees over the time period they plan to live in the home. Borrowers can then compare the True Cost across all custom loan quotes they receive from lenders to determine the best loan for them.
Zillow Mortgage Marketplace is the only mortgage shopping service that enables consumers to submit loan requests anonymously and receive unlimited custom quotes from a network of thousands of confirmed lenders. On average, consumers receive 15 custom, accurate quotes to compare. Since lenders are required to disclose all upfront fees, borrowers are able to compare loan quotes on a true apples-to-apples basis. The Quotes Received shopping tool enables borrowers to sort and filter out quotes with payments and fees they can't afford. Lender reviews and ratings help borrowers decide what lender to contact.
If you live in San Francisco and haven’t sorted through your mail yet, be careful not to throw out the glossy brochure for “The future of Doyle Drive.”
The big meeting is July 23 from 6 -8 p.m. at Fort Mason Center... It’s billed as an open house...
I’m really not making this up... The full color 4 page brochure talks about talking the road’s future, which I might add seems brighter than mine.
In the brochure it mentions world class design, native plant and seed collection and utility relocation. all I suspect to gather support for the project.
I understand Doyle Drive doesn’t meet earthquake standards, but can anyone remember such hoopla for a road before?
So unless there’s some sort of government requirement that before installing a road you need a long series of meetings, a website and an expensive mail campaign could someone explain why all the money is being spent on a road.
And by the way, the project won’t be completed till early 2013
Existing-home sales rose for the third consecutive month with inventory easing and home prices declining less sharply in June, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – increased 3.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 4.89 million units in June from a downwardly revised pace of 4.72 million in May, but are 0.2 percent lower than the 4.90 million-unit level in June 2008.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, is hopeful about the gain. “The increase in existing-home sales occurred in all major regions of the country,” he said. “We expect a gradual uptrend in sales to continue due to tax credit incentives and historically high affordability conditions. Despite the rise in closed transactions, many Realtors® are reporting lost sales as a result of new appraisal standards that went into effect May 1 of this year.”
A June survey of NAR members shows 37 percent experienced at least one lost sale as a result of the new Home Valuation Code of Conduct, with seven out of 10 reporting an increased use of out-of-area appraisers. Seventy percent of NAR appraiser members said consumers were paying higher fees, while 85 percent report a perceived reduction in appraisal quality.
In the past 48 hours I’ve received more emails and phone calls about one person than I can count. That person is Mark McLaughlin, CEO of Morgan Lane and mastermind behind its deal to buy Pacific Union.
Everyone, and I mean everyone, has something nice to say about Mark. Whether it’s a man crush, a current employee singing his praises or an ex-employee doing the same, it’s all good.
Real estate people say:
“He’s pure genius,”
“No one working for Mark should ever be complaining.”
“You can’t find a better manager in town.”
“Mark makes you feel like you can do anything.”
“Mark has the respect of every agent in his office.”
But my very favorite is: “He’s gorgeous, kind, ethical and have you seen that hair?”
One of Marin's Real Estate Royalty will announce Thursday she's changing brokers...
Barbara Major will make it official in the morning that she's going from McGuire Real Estate to First Marin Realty in Mill Valley...
More details to follow...
It's not just me it seems who wonders about title insurance... According to the Wall Street Journal, several states are taking a closer look...
Title-Insurer Fees Draw Scrutiny
The U.S. title-insurance industry faces increasing pressure from regulators to justify the fees charged to consumers for ensuring they have clear ownership of their homes.
For most people, title insurance is just another mysterious fee they must pay when they buy a home or refinance a mortgage. Unlike some of those fees, though, title charges aren’t negligible. They range from several hundred to several thousand dollars—and last year totaled more than $10 billion for the title industry. Lenders insist on the insurance to protect them against the possibility that a taxing authority, another creditor or a disgruntled heir may have a claim to the property, among other risks.
As falling home prices tempt more people back into the housing market in some parts of the country, politicians and regulators are raising questions about whether they may be paying too much for this protection. “There’s no transparency,” Delores Kelley , a state senator in Maryland, said in an interview. She introduced legislation that created a commission to study the title-insurance industry in Maryland. That panel is due to make recommendations about possible regulatory changes by December.
Just off the phone with some folks at Pacific Union and here’s a summary of what I’ve been told...
Just about everyone I spoke with was indifferent to being sold... Most at PacUnion saw it as a good thing....
Overall those I spoke with where happy to finally have some direction(everyone was expecting the company would be sold)... PacUnion agents like the idea of working for one owner rather than two... Agents I spoke thought having local ownership would now mean faster decision making and better decisions... Agents from PacUnion were also hoping Morgan Lane would put the PacUnion Greenbrae office to use...
The two negative comments I heard back were that PacUnion agents heard that Morgan Lane agents had they “noses out of joint” over the decision and that Morgan Lane offices were, “holes in the wall.”
I’m expecting calls this afternoon from inside Morgan Lane... Details to follow...
Late Monday afternoon I was fortunate to run into one of the big real estate CEOs making the rounds. The CEO, not surprisingly, was only to happy to talk about the Morgan Lane purchase of Pacific Union, a story first reported on this blog.
Here’s what I was told....
I wanted to know what was behind Morgan Lane's decision to buy Pacific Union because they are two very different firms with two very different philosophies.
My source told me it was a case of a CEO exceeding his ambition and losing track of the business model started years ago.
Apparently, Mark McLaughlin, CEO of Morgan Lane, had for years told anyone who asked that to work at Morgan Lane “agents needed a proven track record of success at the high end, or you wouldn’t get into my firm (Morgan Lane).” He was also quoted as saying “Thoroughbreds only.”
But he stood by his words, my source said. McLaughlin held Morgan Lane to his mission of hiring top producers -- the elite, the best. But now my source was questioning why McLaughlin was picking up a firm that is merely “volume driven.” The source said buying Pacific Union, “went against the business model.”
When asked if the soon to be former CEO of Pacific Union was pushed or jumped, I was told Avram Goldman was letting friends know “he was looking forward to crushing grapes in Sonoma and spending more time with family.” That’s the battle cry of the pushed. I would say.
Finally in response to the question why the Death Watch title for the Pacific Union posts? As one broker told me today, everyone expects McLaughlin is going to clean house over at Pacific Union... Dead agent walking may be the new phase.
Nothing better than beating the local dying newspaper to the punch.... The Chronicle did a nice job of getting the details out of the press release, cheers to them.. but then again I have a full time job...
I've got calls out to a few of the power elite... should have something by morning....
from the Chronicle...
Boutique real estate firm Morgan Lane Marin is
swallowing up its larger competitor, Pacific Union GMAC Real Estate,
through an acquisition that promises to create a local brokerage
powerhouse.
The deal, for an undisclosed sum, will bring together 17 offices and more
than 430 real estate professionals, with combined sales volume projected
to reach $2.2 billion this year. But it also presents real challenges for
the owners of the luxury-focused Marin firm, who will suddenly oversee a
far larger and more generalized operation at a point when nearly all
brokerages are struggling amid a severe housing downturn.
"With Pacific Union's strong reputation and platform, coupled with Morgan
Lane's agile and entrepreneurial local management and marketing methods,
we have every reason to believe that we are well positioned to become
Northern California's dominant luxury real estate brand," Mark McLaughlin,
chief executive officer of Morgan Lane, said in a statement.
The two companies will continue to operate under their existing names.
Pacific Union of San Francisco, one of the region's largest brokerage
firms, is owned by a division of Brookfield Asset Management Inc., a
publicly-traded Toronto company with property, power and infrastructure
holdings.
In my efforts to always remain positive about the real estate market here in the Bay Area I wanted to point out the latest home sales data does confirm what everyone has been saying; things are picking up... Prices as a whole are down 27.40 percent year over year, but sales are up 20.4 percent year over year...
Home sales in the Bay Area jumped to their highest level in almost three years, the result of improved mortgage availability and a perception among potential buyers that prices have bottomed out. The median price paid for a home increased month-to-month for the third month in a row, a real estate information service reported.
A total of 8,644 new and resale houses and condos sold across the nine-county Bay Area in June. That was up 16.1 percent from 7,447 in May and up 20.4 percent from 7,178 in June 2008, according to San Diego-based MDA DataQuick.
Home sales have increased on a year-over-year basis the last ten months. June sales have varied from a low of 7,118 in 1993 to 15,735 in 2004 in DataQuick’s statistics, which go back to 1988. Last month was 16.1 percent below the 10,306 for an average June.
“Getting mortgage financing this last year has really been an egregious process, especially for borrowers in the upper half of the market. We’re just now seeing the beginnings of more normal mortgage lending patterns. There’s still a long way to go, but it looks like the worst of the grind is over,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.
The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos sold in the nine-county Bay Area was $352,000 last month, up 3.1 percent from $341,500 in May and down 27.4 percent from $485,000 in June 2008. It was the highest since $375,000 last October.
Bay Area real estate prices have increased an average of 28% between the first and second quarters of 2009, according to a Bay Area brokerage.
McGuire Real Estate, also reports that the quantity of single family homes that sold increased significantly, up 66% in the same time period.
"This uptick in activity is somewhat expected," said Aman Daro, Vice President of Integrated Marketing at McGuire. "We typically see an increase between the first and second quarters of the year as buyers participate in the spring buying season, but 2009's increases are larger than in past years."
In some regions, like Marin County and the Peninsula, sales more than doubled and in the Western East Bay, which includes Oakland, Emeryville, Berkeley, Piedmont and Alameda, prices increased 32% to average $391,916.
"Buyers waited longer than usual to come out of their winter hibernation," said Aldo Congi, sales manager for McGuire's Bluxome office. "We hope the buying season is just running later than usual."
When comparing second quarter performance to the same time period the year before, quantity of sales is also showing strength, up 2%. Average sale price, however, is down 29%.
But this year-over-year decline in price is slowing. "The previous two quarters' declines were nearly double that in Q2 2009," continued Mr. Daro. "We are starting to see the market as a whole even out."
The upper end of the market in each region is showing the greatest increases in activity. In three of the four Bay Area regions, more units were sold in the highest price ranges than during the previous quarter.
"The upper end of the market has traditionally kept the Bay Area market aloft, and that was the segment that was most affected by the financial crisis," said Mr. Congi. "All buyers are value-conscious right now, so it's good to see that these influential buyers are recognizing that it's a good time to get great value."
Have we hit bottom? "It's too early to tell," said Mr. Daro. "One data point does not a trend make. The market continues to fluctuate according to seasonal trends, so you can expect summer activity to decline versus the spring, but we should see another increase in the fall."
Data is sourced from San Francisco, Marin, East Bay and Peninsula Multiple Listing Services.
If you follow real estate here in the City you know what’s selling these days -- homes with signs that read, “bank owned,” “foreclosed” or “short sale.”
Several of the City’s biggest real estate firms aren’t happy seeing those words under their “for sale” signs. It’s not the look they were going for and they’re not too keen on their agents selling such properties.
Brokers are afraid of being labeled, “The preferred broker of the foreclosed or bank owned.” True, many brokers are happy to have money coming in, plenty are worried that when business starts picking up again their reputations will be shot. They’ve spent years finely crafting an image as the high end brokerage or boutique firm and may only be seen by buyers and sellers as a place to turn when you’re in trouble, when the bank is breathing down your neck or when you’ve missed the third mortgage payment.
So what’s the plan?
One of the biggest firms in the City told me it’s considering asking agents to think twice before taking a foreclosure or trouble listed. While a firm legally can’t tell an agent to turn down a listing, some firms want their agents to start thinking long term and evaluate the impact down the road.
If you’ve lived in San Francisco long enough someone from out of state has asked you if you’re worried about California falling in the ocean. And if you’ve worked in real estate for more than a year, someone has warned you at least once that FSBOs are all the rage. Point being that neither of these two stories ever come true, but you hear them everyday.
So I wasn’t surprised when The New York Times dragged the same tired story out of the closet to again warn us that FBSO are back and better than ever. Next weekend it will be the return of flying cars and moving sidewalks.
The Sell-It-Yourselfers
AFTER interviewing an array of real estate brokers, Cindy Smith decided to list her parents’ ranch house here herself. She created a Web site for the house, 37newmillrd.com; listed it on Craigslist; stuck a for-sale sign on the front lawn; and took out a cover advertisement in the local Pennysaver. She set the price at $595,000.
She had a list of 300 people who had attended tag sales when she sold her mother’s antiques. When she held an open house three weeks ago, she sent e-mail messages to the people on the list. Forty couples showed up.
“There is movement afoot,” she said. “There has been a lot of interest.”
So far, however, there have not been any buyers.
Ms. Smith chose to sell the custom ranch without a broker so that she would have more wiggle room on the price, which reflects the $30,000 she will not have to pay as a commission.
“People are still expecting deals,” she said.
“There are so many tools homeowners can utilize that agents use themselves,” said Ms. Smith, an owner of a special events and public relations firm in Stony Brook. “We can market it the same way they do.”
Despite Hotel Sector Slump, W San Fran Commands $90M
-By Barbra Murray
The current economy, plagued by job losses galore and belt-tightening on the business and leisure travel fronts, has been more than unkind to the hospitality industry, to say the least. Despite the inhospitable climate, Starwood Hotels & Resorts has nabbed a buyer for its W San Francisco hotel. Keck Seng Investments (Hong Kong) Limited has agreed to fork over $90 million for the 404-room property.
Located at 181 Third St. in San Francisco's South of Market (SoMa) District, W San Francisco is a 31-story structure designed by the architectural firm of Hornberger & Worstell. The property was developed by Starwood in 1999 for a reported $79.4 million according to real estate services firm Jones Lang LaSalle's 2003 San Francisco Lodging Investment Review.
If you live in the City and bought in one of the many new high end, high rise condo buildings, the only thing certain is the value of those units is falling as fast, if not faster than anything else in the City.
Some of the buildings have offered refunds to the earlier buyers, still others are doing anything they can do avoid dropping prices.
A friend of mine this past month bought in one of the more heavily marketed buildings in the City... The agent was only to happy to explain within seconds of meeting that the prices for the most part firm, but other options where available.... In the end that included buying the loan down TWO POINTS, tens of thousands of dollars in upgrades and two years of HOA dues paid in advance thanks to the builder...
In Las Vegas things are not friendly, condo owners fed up with their situations have done what others before them have done, turned to the internet to be heard...
One of the costliest and highest-profile condominium developments in the country -- the $8.4 billion City Center project in Las Vegas -- is facing a revolt from some early buyers.
Some buyers who signed contracts are demanding significant price reductions, and have hired a law firm to take their grievances to the project's principal developer, gambling company MGM Mirage. Others want their deposits back. Some are using a Web site, citycentercondodepositgroup.blogspot.com, to air their grievances.
So far, buyers have put down $313 million in deposits on 1,500 units in the 2,440-unit complex. Those who agreed to buy early on now fear they will take possession of condos whose market values are far below what they agreed to pay. Many of the contracts were signed in 2006 and 2007, when Vegas was booming. Click here for the complete story...
The current owners of Michael Jackson's Neverland Ranch are said to be hoping to cash in on the Michael buzz, listing the long forgotten property for a reported $90,000,000... I have no doubt someone out there is expect to turn it into the next Graceland.
Sales of new U.S. homes in May were down sharply from levels of a year earlier and also dropped below April's total, the Census Bureau reported Wednesday.
The seasonally adjusted annual rate of new-home sales was down 0.6% from April and fell 32.8% from May 2008, amid a glut in housing. New-home sales in the West, however, were up 1.3% over April's adjusted annual rate.
From April to May, new-home sales increased in all regions of the U.S. except the South, where they fell 8.5%, the Census Bureau reported. But because the volume of sales was much greater there than in other parts of the country, that region's sales decline dragged the national total into negative territory.
Compared with a year earlier, however, May new-home sales were down by double-digit percentages in every region of the U.S.
The median sale price for a new home in May was $221,600, down 3.4% from a year earlier.
The slowing pace of decline suggests that the US housing market is moving toward stabilization.
For the first time in two years, a closely watched index of US home prices shows San Francisco posting a month-over-month gain.
The 0.6 percent gain in Bay Area prices is modest, but along with other indicators, it’s a sign that US real estate markets are beginning to move from crisis toward normalcy.
California, after all, has been one of the hardest-hit housing markets in America.
Now the state is showing some signs of improvement, and across the United States, home prices are no longer falling in such a uniform or steep fashion.
Overall, the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller index of 20 large US cities showed home prices down 0.6 percent in April – less than the 2.2 percent one-month drop it posted in March. In other words, the market may be starting to bottom out.
Some metro areas are still in much tougher shape than others, with declines in Miami and Las Vegas offsetting the positive news in San Francisco. But the slowing pace of decline suggests that the housing market is taking important steps toward stabilization.
">click here for the complete story from Mark Trumbull
Home sales increased 35.2 percent in May in California compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home declined 30.4 percent, the California Association Realtors (C.A.R.) reported today.
“With affordability for first-time buyers at a record high, sales of existing, single-family homes continued to remain above the 500,000 level for the ninth consecutive month,” said C.A.R. President James Liptak . “Buyers are beginning to realize that the combination of favorable home prices, historically low mortgage rates, and first-time home buyer tax credits, may not align again for many years.
“The sales gains over last year have diminished in recent months,” he added. “This trend is expected to continue through the end of the year, as limited inventory at the moderate and low end of the market constrains sales activity,” he said.
Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled 556,590 in May at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local Realtor associations statewide. Statewide home resale activity increased 35.2 percent from the revised 411,770 sales pace recorded in May 2008. Sales in May 2009 increased 2.9 percent compared with the previous month.
The statewide sales figure represents what the total number of homes sold during 2009 would be if sales maintained the May pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.
The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during May 2009 was $267,570, a 30.4 percent decrease from the revised $384,540 median for May 2008, C.A.R. reported. The May 2009 median price rose 4.2 percent compared with April’s $256,700 median price.
I would be hard pressed to find a home owner in San Francisco right now who couldn’t tell me the current value of their home... I would be equally hard pressed to find a home owner who could tell you the value of their home ten years from now. (If I'm wrong you can find me at the Coffee Bean on Market)
But now there’s a website that estimates what your home will be worth ten years from now...
The site currently only give estimates California and Florida... The site rates homes on a scale of one to 100. The higher the number, the greater the home’s potential to go up in value.... The formula is mildly complicated, and if you’re interested in the details, the site spells it out for you.
Sales of existing homes showed another gain in May, benefiting from favorable affordability conditions and a first-time buyer tax credit, according to the National Association of Realtors. May’s increase was the first back-to-back monthly gain since September 2005.
Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – rose 2.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate1 of 4.77 million units in May from a downwardly revised level of 4.66 million units in April, but remained 3.6 percent below the 4.95 million-unit pace in May 2008.
No question it’s been a slow few weeks in the Bay Area real estate world. But that doesn’t mean there hasn’t been some outstanding writing these past few days that any good agent wouldn't find helpful.
Here are three worth reading.
From the Wall Street Journal
Tips for Selling Your Home to a First-Time Buyer
A federal tax credit of up to $8,000 is nudging many Americans into buying a home for the first time -- good news for those trying to sell one.
Still, selling a home isn't easy in most markets today. To get the typical first-time buyer to bite and submit an offer, a house has to stand apart from the competition -- and there's a lot of it, including foreclosure homes that are selling at hefty discounts.
One big thing working in favor of the traditional seller: A lived-in, maintained home is easier for buyers to imagine themselves living in than a vacant foreclosure. That has great appeal for someone buying a home for the first time, for practical and financial reasons.
Homeowners should be careful about how they hold title to properties
Reporting from Washington -- The manner in which homeowners hold title to their properties has significant legal ramifications. Consequently, it's not wise to leave this important decision to chance.
Escrow agents will ask how you would prefer the title to read. But often the question isn't posed until you near the close of the sale, and by then it may be too late to give any real thought to your options.
With that in mind, here's an overview of some of the more common forms of ownership.
A WEEK after he moved into the circa-1800 farmhouse he had always dreamed of owning, David Evans spotted something glinting in his backyard. Within two hours, he had unearthed 19 spark plugs.
The discovery was no surprise. He knew his home had been a junkyard for the preceding 40 years — that’s one reason he bought it.
Without the spark plugs, windshield wipers and rotting transoms that dot his garden — as well as the not-so-appealing fact of having a trailer park and an abandoned gas station as neighbors — Mr. Evans and his partner, Jorge Ruiz, antiques dealers in the small Lowcountry town of Walterboro, S.C., say they could never have afforded the area’s oldest farmhouse.
When the challenging location and troubled economy drove down the seller’s asking price from $296,000 to $170,000, the home was finally within reach, and a few months ago, the couple bought it. A similar house would cost 35 percent more in a different location, according to Charles H. Bridges of United Country Joe Williams & Associates, the broker who sold them the house, which is about 45 minutes west of Charleston.
Houses like theirs are “the petunia in the onion patch,” says Gary Gestson, a broker with Long & Foster Real Estate in Gaithersburg, Md. They are charming and often historic, but bargains because their neighborhoods have long since vanished or become blighted.
Real estate agents warn against buying a good house in an undesirable area, saying location trumps all. But because the price is often so appealing, it is a way for buyers to get some of what they want without spending a fortune.
It’s been said if you read three New York Times best sellers on any one subject you’ll know more about that subject than 90 percent of the people. Nothing better as they say then impressing the very people you work with and sell to... And lets be honest, you need something to discuss when you’re driving clients around all day...
While I can’t recommend three books, I can recommend two very different books on the same subject, the mortgage mess.
‘Busted’, by NY Times writer Edmund L. Andrews, and ‘Our Lot’ by Alyssa Katz.
Both stories cover the housing mess, but come up with different villains and causes. Busted is slightly more interesting in that it’s the author tells his own story as part of the narrative explaining how he got caught up in the mess...
If you have other good reads, put them in the comments section, and if you have a review of either book, put that in the comments section as well....
Bay Area home prices rose from April to May, the second straight monthly gain and a surefire sign that the cold-cocked real estate market is finally coming around.
Unless, of course, it's not. The data could just as easily reflect growing distress in the high-end market that is forcing more well-to-do owners to unload their homes, distorting the statistics with discounted but still relatively expensive properties and foreshadowing greater pain to come.
"If you ignore the greater reality and look only at statistics, then you could conclude that we're at least nearing market stability," said Andrew LePage, an analyst with San Diego research firm MDA DataQuick, which compiles the figures. "But given all the forces out there, the mixed signals from the data and the unknowns, it will be at least fall before there's any clarity."
Across the nine-county region, the median price for existing single-family homes stood at $337,000 in May, up 9.6 percent from April but down 37.1 percent from a year ago, according to DataQuick. The market reached its low point for the cycle, $295,000, in March. Before April, prices hadn't climbed from the previous month since October 2007. The March-to-April increase was 14.2 percent.
The median price means that half of the homes sold for more and half for less. A total of 5,655 resale properties traded hands in May, up 27.6 percent from a year ago.
Many real estate professionals attribute the price improvement and increasing sales to growing eagerness among buyers and investors to take advantage of bargain home prices, still relatively low interest rates and government and industry incentives.
"They're confident again and think, 'Boy, when is this opportunity going to come again and also, when is it going to be taken away?' " said Pat Huffman, president of the Bay East Association of Realtors.
LePage and others, however, warn that the rise in prices largely reflects an increase in the portion of homes financed with loans for more than $417,000. Homes that traded at that traditional jumbo mortgage threshold accounted for 25.5 percent of all sales in May, up from 22 percent in April.
Hill & Co. Real Estate announced today that one of San Francisco’s most preeminent Realtors, Joseph Gartland Moore, has joined the company. Mr. Moore will continue to represent buyers and sellers of fine homes and investment properties.
Mr. Moore brings with him over 20 years of experience representing buyers and sellers in the finest neighborhoods of San Francisco. His production consistently ranks him among the top 2 percent of agents in the City. Even as his business has grown, he has always been able to provide the personal service, client care, and in-depth market knowledge his clients expect.
Top Five Reasons Your House Didn’t Appraise
By Jack McLaughlin
By JMcLaughlin@FHAllen.com
You found just the right house at last. Or you are trying to lock in a low refi rate. You know what the house is worth, but the appraisal comes in well below value: what’s up with that? You are not alone. In today’s tight lending climate, if your house doesn’t appraise, here are the most common reasons.
1. Under the new rules, your lender can no longer select, or even communicate with, the appraiser. They must use an independent – but often bank-owned – appraisal management company (AMC).
2. The appraiser couldn’t find your house. The AMC maximizes profits by selecting the cheapest appraiser, regardless of their location. The appraiser may come from Pleasanton to value your Mill Valley house. And local knowledge, especially in eclectic communities like Marin County, is critical to determining market value.
3. Your lender no longer can perform “value checks,” where appraisers informally pull comps to see if the numbers are likely to work for a client, before the actual appraisal is ordered and paid for.
4. The appraiser was incompetent. AMC requires professional appraisers to cut their fees as much as 50%. Since the best won’t work for less, they hire the new and less skilled appraisers, who may perform less thorough valuations.
5. There aren’t any good comps. With fewer sales, appraisers may need to look in dissimilar areas or go back in time to find similar properties that sold.
Call me if you have a problem. I can likely help you get the numbers up. Jack 415.302.7787
Housing starts have never really meant much to those of us here in the City, but there are a great indicator of where the real estate industry is headed months from now... So today's announcement is probably another sign we've reached the bottom...
From the Wall Street Journal
Home construction climbed in May far above expectations, with single-family starts rising a third month in a row and giving more evidence of stability in the housing sector.
Separately, U.S. producer prices posted their largest annual decline in 60 years last month, suggesting that the prolonged recession continues to take pressure off inflation.
Housing starts increased 17.2% to a seasonally adjusted 532,000 annual rate compared to the prior month, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. Building permits rose; apartment construction surged.
The 17.2% increase was much bigger than expected. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires forecast a 7.0% increase to an annual rate of 490,000.
If you’re like many of us here in San Francisco you’re either refinancing your home, or considering it. I can tell you first hand the process is beyond nutty... My refi is entering its fifth month and I just completed second appraisal...
For those of you still considering the idea of a refi the weekly average rate borrowers were quoted on
Zillow Mortgage Marketplace for 30-year fixed mortgages increased last week to 5.72 percent, up from 5.48 percent the week prior, according to the Zillow Mortgage Rate Monitor, compiled by leading real estate Web site Zillow.com. Meanwhile, rates for 15-year fixed mortgages rose to 5.18 percent from 4.95 percent, and 5-1 adjustable rate mortgages rose to 4.73 percent from 4.62 percent the week prior.
Average Rate Average Rate
Mortgage Type Week ending 6/14/09 Week ending 6/7/09 % Change
Today is the kick off for bad idea day... The The California Foreclosure Prevention Act, signed back in February, has officially gone into effect, meaning that servicers with "in-comprehensive" loan modification programs will face a 90-day foreclosure moratorium.
In short, home foreclosures are on hold for the next 90 days forcing banks to work through all options to prevent the homeowner from getting the boot...
Why is it a bad idea? As I see it, anytime you mess with the free markets, which have been doing a nice job of cleaning up the inventory problems, you’re just asking for trouble...
I’m happy to listen to anyone’s opinion... Feel free to list it below
After a severe economic storm of more than 365,000 California foreclosures since early 2007, the state's long-awaited 90-day foreclosure moratorium law goes into effect Monday.
But it doesn't mean foreclosures will stop.
Supporters acknowledge the state is likely to see thousands more foreclosures before the crisis subsides. The law, indeed, goes into effect as lenders are ramping up repossessions following expiration of earlier moratoriums, according to housing trackers.
But the California Foreclosure Prevention Act, passed as Assembly Bill X2 7 by lawmakers in February and signed by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, raises a new hurdle in the foreclosure process.
Backers say it will make lenders try harder to keep borrowers in homes. Starting Monday, loan servicers must prove to the state they have comprehensive loan modification programs in place – or be denied rights to foreclose on their own schedules.
If you're like thousands of agents in the Bay Area, Craigslist is without question your best friend... Free listings, hot links to your website and a place to post properties in dozens of different ways at no cost to you... Which has always left many wondering how Craigslist pays the bills every month... In NY you pay for your listings, and like the rest of the country you pay for job postings... That aside everything on the site is for the most part free...
The NY Times is reporting today that Craig's is on his way to a $100,000,000 in revenue... For the San Francisco based company working out of a basement apartment with just a handful of employees, not to bad...
SAN FRANCISCO — As the newspaper industry and its classified advertising business wither, one company appears to be doing extraordinarily well: Craigslist.
The Internet classified ads company, which promotes its “relatively noncommercial nature” and “service mission” on its site, is projected to bring in more than $100 million in revenue this year, according to a new study from Classified Intelligence Report, a publication of AIM Group, a media and Web consultant firm in Orlando, Fla.
That is a 23 percent jump over the revenue the firm estimated for 2008 and a huge increase since 2004, when the site was projected to bring in just $9 million. “This is a down-market for just about everyone else but Craigslist,” said Jim Townsend, editorial director of AIM Group. The firm counted the number of paid ads on the site for a month and extrapolated an annual figure. It said its projections were conservative.
By contrast, classified advertising in newspapers in the United States declined by 29 percent last year, its worst drop in history, according to the Newspaper Association of America.
Craigslist, based in San Francisco, would not comment on the study. “We are a privately held company and never comment on guesses of our revenue. Nor have we ever commented on any number bandied around in the past,” said Susan MacTavish Best, a Craigslist spokeswoman.
Trulia, a San Francisco based company today announced that 23.6 percent of current homes on the market in the United States have experienced at least one price cut, totaling $27.4 billion in reductions. The average price-reduced home has seen a listing price reduction of 10.6 percent.
In the Bay Area, 28 percent of the homes on the market have reduced their price by an average of 11percent.
Major metropolitan areas continue to be hit hard by price reductions. Of the top 50 cities in the U.S. based on population, 33 have seen 25 percent or more of home listings reduced in price, higher than the national average of 23.6 percent. U.S. cities that have seen at least 30 percent of homes reduced in price include:
“Summer time is the peak season for buying and selling, and with some of the lowest prices in the last decade, we expect to it be a busy season,” said Pete Flint, Trulia co-founder and CEO. “Everyone wants to think they are getting the best deal available and price reductions are helping to spark a renewed interest in the U.S. real estate market.”
The Foreclosure Effect
The national average for price reductions on current home listings is 10.6 percent, but sellers in the areas hardest hit by foreclosures are slashing prices the most. Detroit home owners on average reduce their homes by 23 percent, while Las Vegas sellers reduce their homes by 16 percent and Miami sellers reduce their homes by 15 percent. Phoenix and Mesa are also experiencing deep price reductions with 13 percent slashed off the original listing price.
Luxury Market Getting Hit Hard
24 percent of homes with a selling price greater than $2 million are seeing price reductions compared to 23.6 percent of homes on the market for the less than $2 million. While the percentage of homes seeing discounts are almost identical, discounts on luxury homes are significantly more with 14.3 percent being slashed off the original listing price compared to only 9.7 percent of homes under the $2 million dollar price tag.
Sometimes it takes a fresh perspective to see just how nutty home prices STILL are here in the City... In its weekly feature, "What do you get for..." the NY Times puts out a price and shows what you can get around the country... Today's price.... $465,000
Showing up were:
San Francisco
Richmond, Ky
Shelburne Falls, MA
You don't have to remind me living in Kentucky, or rural Massachusetts isn't high on your lists of places to live... but have a look, and wonder if the rest of America doesn't think we're all crazy...
Granted there is no where else I want to live, but damn, $465,000 goes a long way in the right places still...
It makes no difference if you are a man or a woman, married or unmarried or in which part of the country you live - a recent poll reveals there is now a new top requirement for Americans when searching for a new home: affordability. A wave of practicality driven by harsh economic times has forced location - the number one home-buying factor in research conducted in the past - to take a back seat in the process, and has created nationwide consensus when it comes to this emotionally-charged activity. These and other new consumer findings regarding home buying were announced today by the real estate search engine Roost.com in conjunction with the roll out of a major update to the company's website.
In an Opinion Research poll that surveyed 1,002 U.S. adults by telephone May 8-11, 2009, 43 percent of respondents across the board - male/female, married/not married, and from every corner of the country - said that finding a home they can afford and maintain was the most important consideration when researching a new home, and was cited significantly more often than the number two consideration, finding a home in the right location or community. This can be compared to a survey conducted by Kelton Research in 2005, prior to the recent economic downturn, in which a full three out of four Americans (72 percent) stated that when looking at available property, the neighborhood was more important than the house itself.
If you haven't taken the time to look at what you're standing in lately, let me be the first to tell you... the stuff on the soles of shoes, that's the bottom... if would appear the San Francisco real estate market has hit bottom... it might not be reflected in next month's numbers, but figures just out from NAR would certainly led me to believe we have in fact gone as low as we can... so if you're fence sitting, or waiting for the pebble to stop falling, today is that day... get out there and buy...
here's are the official numbers
Record low mortgage interest rates boosted pending home sales for the third consecutive month, with some benefit now from the first-time buyer tax credit, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
The Pending Home Sales Index,1 a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in April, rose 6.7 percent to 90.3 from a reading of 84.6 in March, and is 3.2 percent above April 2008 when it was 87.5.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said buyers are responding to very favorable market conditions. “Housing affordability conditions have been at historic highs, but now the $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit is beginning to impact the market,” he said. “Since first-time buyers must finalize their purchase by November 30 to get the credit, we expect greater activity in the months ahead, and that should spark more sales by repeat buyers.”
The Pending Home Sales Index in the Northeast shot up 32.6 percent to 78.9 in April and is 0.8 percent above a year ago. In the Midwest the index rose 9.8 percent to 90.4 and is 11.1 percent above April 2008. The index in the South slipped 0.2 percent to 93.0 in April but is 3.5 percent higher than a year ago. In the West the index rose 1.8 percent to 94.8 but is 2.9 percent below April 2008.
I’ve never understood till today why anyone would want to own a celebrity's home... You pay a premium for it, and chances are you’ll never meet the owner if that’s part of the fantasy...
So after years of mocking celebrity home buyers, I was sad to learn that Cameron Fry’s house has sold, and it was well out of my price range...
It was the first house I can ever remember thinking as a kid was a pretty cool house... Cameron is, or was of Ferris Bueller’s best friend.
Probably a half dozen scenes were shot in the house with the most memorial being the red Ferrari through the glass wall.
The house sold for $2.3 million...
4 bedrooms, 4 baths 5300 sq. ft just outside of Chicago
SAN FRANCISCO -- California's median price for existing homes rose 1.4% in April from March, marking the second consecutive monthly increase in housing prices and prompting some industry officials to declare that the state's long swoon in housing values could be at or near the bottom.
California's housing market is being closely watched as a barometer of the economy -- it is the nation's largest. Prices soared during the boom, but the collapse of housing prices has pummeled homeowners and helped send foreclosures skyrocketing. Any sign of recovery would be taken as a sign that the market is bottoming.
[Cali Homes]
It was the first back-to-back increase in the state's housing prices in two years, following an increase in the median price of homes in March from February. The median price of $256,700 for single-family homes in April is up from a median price of $253,040 in March, according to estimates by the California Association of Realtors.
For as long as i can remember California was going to fall in the ocean and San Quentin prison would be turned into a neighborhood of multimillion dollar homes... It was earlier this month that Arnold said he was willing to sell of state's assets to close the growing deficit, causing real estate agents all over the Bay Area to dream of subdividing San Quentin to make room for new homes... Let me say for the record, this will NEVER happen. If for some strange reason did, it would take 25 years to find new homes for the current residents, conduct enviormental impact studies, host hearing over the best use of the land and clear the property... it might even turn out the best use for the land would be to turn it into a park.. so for now enjoy the dream...
It's not the Western Addition - it's NoPa. It's not the Financial District - it's the Barbary Coast. The gritty Hells Angels enclave known as Dogpatch? Now one of America's hottest ZIP codes, according to the current edition of Men's Journal magazine.
San Franciscans love to microbrand their neighborhoods, and at last count Wikipedia listed 109 places to live in the city by the bay.
The continual turnover in names, boundaries and reputations is enough to make an old timer's head spin.
"A confusing and inconsistent mess," according to a 1977 attempt to list 144 distinct neighborhoods in California Living, the magazine of the San Francisco Sunday Examiner and Chronicle.
Stepping into the fray, the San Francisco Association of Realtors is coming out with a new neighborhood map this summer - replacing stale names with hip ones, adding enclaves and changing boundaries to try to answer one of San Francisco's most complicated questions:
So, where do you live?
The real estate map, last updated in 2005, is serious business - homes for sale through the Multiple Listing Service are automatically assigned to districts on the map, a factor buyers and real estate appraisers use to help size up a home.
"We worked for four years on this, and we didn't allow changes like 'TenderNob' for the Tenderloin just to change home values - the changes had to reflect a true change and feel of the fabric of a neighborhood," said Matthew Borland, a Zephyr real estate agent who is leading the map redesign.
On the map
Some of the new monikers have bubbled up from popular culture, others have the whiff of real estate marketing euphemism, and some are a return to names that stuck despite trendsetters' efforts to change them.
A section of the South of Market (SoMa) area becomes a new neighborhood called Yerba Buena - a nod to the flourishing arts district of modern high-rises sprouting among the Museum of Modern Art and Yerba Buena Center for the Arts.
Cole Valley will finally make the map, taking a bite out of Parnassus Heights territory. Dolores Heights and South Beach get bigger.
The area around Bayview Park and Candlestick Park becomes Candlestick Point.
"San Franciscans have a culture of individuality. It attracts people who don't want to fit into a mold, so constantly reinventing their neighborhoods is part of that," said Joy Liu, a San Francisco real estate agent for Coldwell Banker.
The Financial District has been renamed Barbary Coast to harken the Gold Rush-era hangout for prostitutes, whiskey and poker.
"We thought it was a fun name that brings the area back to its roots. 'Financial District' says office buildings and doesn't convey much of a residential identity," Borland said.
For Donald Drummond, who opened the Drummond & Associates law firm in the Financial District in 1971, "Barbary Coast" doesn't roll off the tongue.
Nothing I love more than finding random marketing material from the local Realtor in my mailbox...
Last night I found an invitation to a “Special Sneak Peak (sic) Open House For Your (town here) Neighbors!”
The note was full of errors... Everything from punctuation to grammar.
I’m going to say it now, I’m not the best speller either, but I like to think the good folks at Frank Howard Allen would have some double check for these sorts of things...
My favorite error is in the opening paragraph where the agent mentions the house will be “coming on the market very soon.”
Yet on the bottom of the flier it says it will be on the market May 31st.. A lot must have transpired between the first paragraph and the last...
I could personally find 8 errors... Let me know what you find...
So what’s the point of this post? I direct you to Sunday’s New York Times....
The Poet of Property, a story that goes into great detail about hiring professional to do your real estate writing... Enjoy
The Poet of Property
By ERIC KONIGSBERG
THE language of real estate advertising copy in New York is beyond parody: how can you make fun of something that already reads like a satire of itself? Are there really thousands of buildings that can fairly call themselves “one of the most desired co-ops on the Upper East Side”?
Has almost every broker in town really produced “nearly $1 billion in sales throughout his illustrious career working at one of Manhattan’s premier residential brokerage firms and specializing in the sales of some of Manhattan’s most prestigious and highly coveted addresses”?
Still, who among us can resist a good real-estate ad? And who hasn’t had a laugh reading a clumsy attempt to make the uninhabitable sound irresistible? The very plasticity of the form may be why the writers of so many listings fail.
It’s as if the less adroit in the business had reasoned that all hyperbole sounds the same, so why not just take a nap and let your computer write the thing?
There exists, however, a significant portion of New York real estate professionals who hold that while it is easy to write in shelter-speak, it is difficult to do it well. They can’t say exactly what makes a successful ad — but they know it when they see it. And for a lot of those people, Valerie Haboush is the hired gun they depend on to write theirs.
Ms. Haboush, 46, calls herself a “freelance marketing communications writer” — O.K., so the poetry gods were out of magic dust the day she had to think up her job description — and for somebody who works in a competitive field built on exclusives, she is a believer in the “love all, serve all” school of business.
Things are getting better... Today's S&P Case-Shiller report has Bay Area home prices down 30.1 percent for a the past twelve months, and down 2.2 percent for March... Which is an improvement over the previous month where home prices were down 3.3 percent... things are coming around... agents tell me everyday that the good neighborhoods are still selling and I'm personally convinced it's these sorts of numbers that are going to be folks waiting for the market to hit bottom to finally get out and buy... I think it's safe to say the bottom is a month away... When the June numbers come in, I'm betting it's going to show the first signs of raising home prices...
Home Prices Continue Downward March
U.S. home prices continued their multiyear tumble in March, according to the S&P Case-Shiller home-price indexes, as the downdraft shows no near-term signs of abating.
Meanwhile, U.S. consumer confidence improved sharply in May, especially in expectations for the economy six months from now, a report released Tuesday said.
For the first quarter, the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index posted a 19.1% drop from a year earlier, the biggest quarterly decline for the reading's 21-year history. S&P Case-Shiller releases 10-city and 20-city indexes every month, but also releases a broader national index every quarter.
Separately, the monthly numbers showed 15 of 20 major metropolitan areas posted price declines of more than 10% from a year earlier, with the Sun Belt continuing to be hit hardest. Nationally, home prices are at levels similar to the fourth quarter of 2002.
Practically located in the heart of downtown SF – right along Folsom street. If you don’t have anything big planned this weekend or if you’re shopping in the Downtown area, you have to check out this gorgeous top-floor corner end unit loft. It’s a definite must-see. Located between two parks, it’s a true bachelor pad with two beds, three baths and 1,578 sqft for entertaining! The huge windows offer great views and the gourmet kitchen will bring out the chef-side of you. There’s also a patio, perfect for sunny weekend brunches. Come have a look this weekend and imagine what it would be like to live in such a modern luxury.
I Spent a good part of this week talking with agents trying to get a sense of where they feel the City’s real estate market it headed... Here’s what I heard...
1.The best neighborhoods are still selling well.. Noe Valley, Pac Heights and Lower Haight
2.Plenty of pent up demand by folks who have been waiting years to buy... Agents tell me the waiters are finally getting the sense the market has hit bottom...
3.Described to me as, “the never buys.” Couples who always say they’re waiting for the perfect moment to buy remain on the fence... It appears there are just people who like to talk about buying a home, but will never buy, ever...
4.Mortgages are still an issue... Agents tell me clients with no money problems and perfectly good credit are getting turned down for no reason
5.Plenty of sellers are refusing to drop prices on clearly overpriced homes leaving others to believe the market is still slow... One agent thought if you could get all the over priced homes off the market, you would be surprised to see how fast the well priced homes are selling
And finally my personal predication...
I’m conceived couples with kids about to enter school are going to spring into action in the coming months... Most of these potential buyers realize they can no longer afford 25k for private school, have been saving for for a house for years and see a huge opportunity in Marin with falling prices... It was just 18 months ago the standard Marin home was $1.2, now it’s 900k... Come Fall there won’t be a kid in the City...
I’ve been told by folks in the know the Pacific Union office in Greenbrae, source of so much gossip these past months, is shutting down...
Yes, the 60 day notice has been give to the office, time to look elsewhere for a place to call home... Plenty of other PacUnion offices in town with open desks I’m sure...
But like death and taxes, when your real estate office closes, Melissa Bradley will call with an offer of work... Plenty of agents in town thank you for the opportunity...
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The other day I sat in on one of the meetings where one office tries to convince another office their futures would be brighter if they switched offices... It was the usual pitch, with the exception of one detail... The folks doing the pitch were talking about their position as the luxury real estate firm...
I thought that was an odd position to take since as Ron Parks pointed out in the Vision Report on this site that was the only end of the market not doing well... Not to mention several agents who have made a lifetime of calling themselves luxury agents were now regrading the decision seeing how they were holding a boatload of multi million dollar listing that weren’t selling, or as one agent said, “will never sell.”
And in case you didn’t see it this weekend, the Chronicle reported the same issue...
More high-end properties sitting on the market
So the question is, are you changing why way you position yourself and your listings?
After 14 months on the market and about a $1.2 million price cut, a large, newly built home in the Oakland hills is on the verge of selling, assuming the bank allows it to trade for less than what's due on the loan.
The approximately $950,000 "short sale" is a prominent example of something brokers don't like to talk about, at least not brokers who represent owners: High-end properties are increasingly coming under the sort of pressure once reserved for moderate homes. In fact, as slowing price declines fuel hope that the real estate bottom is near, other signs suggest the worst is on its way for the region's upscale market.
"The high end, they're hurting more, actually, and you can bargain more," said Pinky Sohal, a Realtor with Legacy Real Estate & Associates, who is representing the purchaser of 1055 Amito Drive in Oakland, a hedge fund manager whom she declined to name. "They're begging for buyers to come in."
The seller's agent didn't respond to inquires.
So far, prices for top-end properties aren't declining more or faster than the market as a whole, based on ZIP code information provided by San Diego research firm MDA DataQuick. But strains are becoming evident on that end of the price spectrum.
In the Bay Area, the months of unsold inventory of existing single-family homes priced above $1 million reached 14 months in March, more than double where it stood a year ago, according to the California Association of Realtors. The statistic estimates the time it would take to sell all the homes on the market based on the current rate of transactions.
In contrast, inventory of homes priced below $500,000 fell to just 2.6 months, a nearly 80 percent decline. The same general trends were seen on the state level as well.
Located close by Trulia headquarters, this amazing condo is claimed to be on the ‘crookedest’ street in San Francisco. Boasting 1,434 sqft of space, the condo includes two beds, two baths, deeded walk-out garden, large pantry, dining room and overlooks lush greenery. It’s been recently reduced $10,000 AND they’re having an open house this Sunday!
Two years after the start of the real estate market implosion, new data indicates the bottom of the market is clearing and more expensive properties are coming available. Report shows increases in asking prices in 22 of 26 major metro markets around the country.
The Altos 10-City Composite Price Index increase by 2.2% during April and 3.3% during the most recent three month period. Prices of properties listed for sale rose in 22 of 26 major markets and were down in four markets according to the Real-Time Housing Market Report, jointly published by Altos Research, the premier source for real-time real estate statistics.
Listing prices rose at the fastest rate in the California markets with San Jose up 3.7%, Los Angeles up 3.2% and San Diego up 2.8% in April. Prices in 18 markets are now showing three months of sequential listing price increases. Asking prices fell at the fastest rate during April in Las Vegas followed by Salt Lake City - down 3.8% and 2.6% respectively.
"Broadly rising asking prices in this difficult economic environment demonstrate the powerful effect of seasonality in the housing industry," said Stephen Bedikian, partner and research director for Real IQ. "We expect to see continued strength during the next few months of the spring selling season fueled by historically low mortgage rates. We won't be able to call a bottoming of the market until we see stability continue into the seasonally weak fall and winter months."
Inventory levels decreased in a majority of major markets with inventory falling in 15 of 26 markets. Across the 10-City Composite Index markets, inventory fell by 1.5% in April and was effectively unchanged during the most recent three-month period. Inventory grew by the largest amount in Boston up 6.3% followed by Austin up 4.9%. Inventory fell by the largest amount in Phoenix and San Francisco where it contracted by 11.0% and 7.1% respectively.
"A decline in inventory levels is atypical for this time of the year," said Michael Simonsen co-founder and chief executive officer of Altos Research. "The important question is whether inventory growth will remain restrained or whether pent-up supply will come on to the market in succeeding months. There is no surer way to snuff out a recovery in housing prices than a flood of inventory that overwhelms demand."
During April all markets except Portland, San Francisco and Salt Lake City had a median days-on-market of 100 or more. By far, the market with the slowest rate of inventory turnover was again Miami, now at a median of 246 days-on-market or more than eight months. Miami has experienced the slowest market turnover in every month since September 2007. Portland experienced the fastest rate of inventory turnover at a median of 82 days-on-market, followed by San Francisco at 96 days.
American homeowners have a solid understanding of what has happened to the values of their own homes over the past year. A majority (60 percent) believe their own home lost value during the past 12 months, according to the Zillow Q1 Homeowner Confidence Survey(1). In reality, 80 percent of homes across the country lost value during the past 12 months, according to Zillow's first quarter Real Estate Market Reports.
Additionally, 18 percent believe their own home gained value in the past 12 months, and 22 percent believe its value remained the same. That resulted in a Zillow Home Value Misperception Index(2) of five - the lowest it has been since Zillow introduced the index in the second quarter of 2008 - and down from 10 in the fourth quarter of 2008. A Misperception Index of zero would mean homeowners perceptions' were in line with actual values.
More accurate perceptions of the past gave way to hope for the future. Most homeowners - 74 percent - believe their home will not decline in value in the coming six months, effectively calling a bottom to their own home's housing slide. Specifically, one in four homeowners (27 percent) think their home's value will increase in the next six months, while nearly half (47 percent) believe their home's value will remain the same. Homeowners were similarly optimistic when it came to predicting home values in their local markets. About two-thirds of homeowners believe home values in their local markets will increase (26 percent) or stay the same (37 percent) over the next six months. Thirty-seven percent believe home values will decrease.
As for selling activity, it's clear a significant number of potential sellers are holding back due to the current market. When asked about future plans to sell, 31 percent of homeowners said they would be at least "somewhat likely" to put their homes on the market in the next 12 months if they saw signs of a real estate market turnaround(3).
"The perception of American homeowners is finally catching up to reality, which is that 80 percent of all homes in the country lost value during this past year," said Dr. Stan Humphries, Zillow's vice president of data and analytics. "While homeowners are now more realistic when looking backward, they are still pretty starry-eyed when looking forward with three out of four homeowners believing that their own homes' prices will increase or be flat over the next six months. Unfortunately, there are few markets we expect to perform this well."
Humphries continued, "Also interesting is the information we have for the first time this quarter on the levels of 'shadow inventory' - homes that people would like to sell but that aren't currently on the market, and thus aren't captured in the official number of homes on the market. With almost a third of homeowners poised to jump into the market at the first sign of stabilization, this could create a steady stream of new inventory adding to already record-high inventory levels, thus keeping downward pressure on home prices."
(NOTE: Column percentages may not total 100 percent due to rounding)
Western Homeowners' Perceptions Catch Up With Reality
With a Misperception Index of two - down from 13 in the fourth quarter - the perception of homeowners in the West was closest to reality, along with that of homeowners in the Midwest. Northeastern homeowners' perception of their own homes' values were the farthest from reality, with a Misperception Index of 11, up from 3 in the fourth quarter.
This is part 2 of 2... Several posts below is part 1...
I spent the last three days out of town on a search for a new home... what i learned and what i went through taught me a lot about buying a home... these are tips i can assure you will make anyone a better agent...
6. Cute phone numbers like 415-555-SOLD , 415- 27-AGENT or 415-1TP-AGENT are utterly useless to me... if you’ve ever taken the time to look at a Blackberry, you'll notice there are no letters on the keys
7. The most worthless numbers in real estate are average and median home price... explain to a client what you’ll get for the average price...My Realtor did this and it helped immensely because the average price didn’t matter... average is Latin for disappointing
8. When you give your clients the mls listings, give them all the details... i want more than a photo, price and beds/baths... Our agent did this and I was glad...i want to know days on market, the schools and taxes at the very least.... print for me all the information about the listing
9. Check your own websites on a blackberry/iphone... I can’t tell you how many times i tried Googling a listing I was standing next to only to be brought to an agent’s site that didn’t work on my phone... but don’t feel bad, even Zillow, a company that built its reputation on being the online real estate go-to site failed on mobile. When i tried searching on Zillow on my phone I received the following message... “home search may not wok on mobile devices.”
10. Post as many honest photos as you can... countless times i came across great looking homes on the mls that were so far from reality... i wondered how the photo was taken... one house, a total dump, was photographed from such an angle that the scrub brush, phone lines and surrounding apartment buildings we completely removed from the photo... nice work by the photographer, but i would have rather known upfront what i was getting into...
I'm not sure what changed since yesterday, but it appears suddenly the world agrees the real estate skid is about over....
The CEO of online broker ZipRealty, Pat Lashinksy told ABC News "We're hitting some trends that show that we may be approaching a bottom, or we may be at a bottom right now." Another nameless expert on CBS Radio said it appears homes prices are stabilizing with smaller and smaller month over month declines....
But the best headline of the day belongs to ABC News...
There is a growing belief among financial experts that the recession is over.
Barry Knapp, a strategist at Barclays Capital, wrote recently that the economy appears "to be in the sweet spot of a recovery" and that the recession may have ended last month, according to Bloomberg News.
Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said on "Good Morning America" today that she agrees with that conclusion.
"It isn't any brilliant prescience on mine or anybody else's part," Sonders said. "There's certain indicators we can look at to set the turn, and I think we have seen that turn."
Sonders warned that unemployment is a lagging indicator and, historically, employment figures don't begin to recover until six months after the end of a recession. That means that this time around, unemployment likely won't peak until the end of this year.
But, she added, there are already positive signs on the employment front. Layoffs are slowing, and unemployment claims are starting to edge lower.
Meanwhile, there is also good news in housing: At least one real estate insider is actually using the words like "normalizing" and "housing market" in the same sentence.
"We're hitting some trends that show that we may be approaching a bottom, or we may be at a bottom right now," said Pat Lashinksy, the CEO of online broker ZipRealty.
A leading indicator of how the housing market is faring is inventory, the number of homes on the market. When the number of homes for sale goes down, prices rise and the market improves.
Lashinksy said that that's what's happening now. New data from ZipRealty shows that buyers are moving into the housing market at levels not seen in two years.
"Inventory levels are actually declining, and median home prices of homes available for sale have actually gone up," Lashinksy said.
Expect an announcement this week that McGuire Real Estate will purchase Vision Real Estate in Marin...
Employees of McGuire should get the news later today and a formal announcement is expected on Wednesday... stay tuned for details
I spent the last three days out of town on a search for a new home... what i learned and what i went through taught me a lot about buying a home... these are tips i can assure you will make anyone a better agent...
(I would like to mention the following suggests do NOT reflect on the agent I'm currently working with who in my mind went above and beyond on countless occasions this Mother’s Day weekend to meet my nutty requests)
1. flyers - the plastic box that hangs on the for sale sign needs to be kept full... i can’t tell you how many times i drove around neighborhoods i liked and found empty boxes... don’t tell me to call the number on the sign... if you aren’t interested enough to keep the flyer box full for your client, what sort of service are you going to be offering me as a potential buyer...?
2. Put the price of the house on the sign... it saves everyone time and effort... if you’re thinking leaving the price off forces potential clients to call, it doesn’t... i never called a single agent... but if i knew the price was at least close to my price, i would have considered calling
3. You’re not tech savvy just because you have a website and a smart phone... you need to be able to text, sms, send short video clips and provide for me links that actually works on a blackberry... not links that require i go back to my laptop (email yourself before you email your clients)
4. Google the address of your listing... if the address that comes up on google maps or mapquest doesn’t match your listings actual location, make an effort to get it correct... google now allows for corrections
5. Know the schools in the neighborhoods where you sell... don’t refer me to a websites, or give me directions to the nearest school... know the school’s test scores, its reputation and at the very least put the names of the schools on a home’s flier.
Zillow Real Estate Market Reports
First Quarter: January-March 2009
U.S. home values continued to slide for the ninth consecutive quarter, declining 14.2 percent from a year ago, and falling 21.8 percent since the market peak in 2006. Additionally, one-fifth (21.9%) of all homeowners in the United States is in negative equity, and one in five homes sold in the past 12 months was a foreclosure.
Zillow Q1 Real Estate Market Reports track 161 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) throughout the U.S., identifying market trends including, but not limited to: five and 10-year annualized change, negative equity, short sales and foreclosure transactions.
If you’re an agent with any of the following features, chances are your web site sucks...
As I’ve mentioned before, I’ve designed and consulted on plenty of real estate sites in my day, but my search for a new home has again pointed out the problems with real estate web sites...
If you ask me to register before I can search on your site, there’s no chance... millions of sites including Trulia ask nothing of you... People don’t want to, or need to give up their email address so you can hassle them or build out your mailing list... need proof, check your site's analytics... What's your bounce rate?
No address on your listing... if it’s at the clients request you need to explain to them your wasting not only your time but theirs... If i can’t decide if the house is the neighbor I’m searching for, I'm not going to spend ten minutes tracking the info down...
If you put your cell phone number on your site, expect calls after five... Over the past week I’ve tried reaching agents with listings I was interested in, but on numerous occasions I got voice mail messages that said they didn't return calls after 5pm, or that if they did answer they wanted to know why I was calling after work hours... It’s great to have boundaries, but i image it’s better to have clients...
In these less than stellar times I have watched agents carry over-priced listings for months... It’s either one of two stories... the seller is upside down or the can’t convince the seller it’s 2009...
So today I would like to offer some fresh ammo to persuade sellers it’s time to lower the price...
Over the years I’ve learned if it’s in print, people are more likely to consider it... The NY Times and Wall Street Journal tend to have the greatest power of persuasion, the Chronicle not so much... Now the folks at Business Week have come out with a story titled... “Want to Sell Your Home? Lower the price.”
Below is a link to the story, but in the story you’ll also find a list of cities with the most discounted homes...
1. Scottsdale, AZ
2. Tampa, FL
3. St. Paul, MN
4. LA
5. Honolulu
6. Columbus,OH
7. San Francisco
8. New York
For those of you who haven’t done a vanity Google of late, go ahead a take a minute to do so.... type your name into the Google and see what comes back...
whether you did or didn’t like the results, for the first time every there is something you can do about it...
I know for a lot of agents the idea of coming up number one in the organic Google result is huge, so here’s your chance...
Google now allows you to create your own profile with the information you want people to know about you... there are plenty of blanks to fill in, lots of options to promote yourself as well as get yourself found in a positive light..
As so many of you know, the search for a new home can be all consuming... something i’m learning more and more everyday... but i’m also learning that while there might be a decline in housing prices, the best neighborhoods seem to be saying otherwise... no matter where i look , if there’s a decent school district to be had, the price of homes is holding steady...
backing my new found belief is a new piece in the LA Times...
House hunting? It's not a buyer's market everywhere
House hunting? It's not a buyer's market everywhere
The median price in Southern California may have plummeted, but in more desirable neighborhoods, home buyers are still engaging in bidding wars.
By Chip Jacobs
6:15 PM PDT, May 2, 2009
The confident smile Sam Rivero wore as he hunted for his first house had a lot to do with the buzz thumping in his ears. Ever since home values began sinking, pundits have touted the juicy opportunities for aspiring buyers priced out of the market before, and the young business-development executive heard that cue like a sonic boom.
Out he ventured into Mount Washington, Glassell Park, Eagle Rock, Montecito Heights and other desirable middle-class communities northeast of downtown Los Angeles, searching for a bargain in the $400,000 range. Candidates came and went, and Rivero, who is getting married, was upbeat. Considering the pulverized housing values, with the median price of a Southland home today -- $250,000 -- at half of its 2007 level, the properties should come gift-wrapped, right?
As the Glendale resident and his fiancee, a makeup artist for the television show "Entourage," discovered, the supposedly wondrous buyers' market seems more consumer myth than easy pickings.
They bid $50,000 over asking price for a "great" four-bedroom contemporary in Valley Village, only to lose out to one of the 16 other offers tendered, Rivero, 33, said. A North Hollywood house he had been eager to see attracted so many people walking around with sales fliers that he couldn't find parking and drove off from the "vultures" who got there first.
"Every open house I've been to has been a zoo," said Rivero, who has examined 35 properties during the last three months. "If you follow what the [general] media say, you'd think sellers are desperate to sell a house, but when you get there it's totally the opposite."
So what's going on?
Real estate brokers and investors say would-be buyers misunderstand how the drop in housing prices has affected desirable neighborhoods. Just because an abandoned house in a troubled part of San Bernardino County might be going for $200,000, it doesn't mean you can get a nice place in Sherman Oaks for that amount -- or even twice that amount.
House hunters are trying to pounce on deals from sellers they expected to be frantic -- if not curled in the fetal position. What they're finding instead are bidding wars as low interest rates and pent-up demand in traditionally stable or chic areas have kept prices up -- not as high as the market's peak, but not nearly as low as they had hoped.
"The biggest problem," said agent Phyllis Harb, "is that people are overreacting to housing statistics, thinking they can come in and make an offer 20% below price."
As sales figures and home buyers' anecdotes are underscoring, when the residential real estate bubble burst, it set off several distinct sprays that created false hopes and confusion.
Though nearly 20,000 homes in Southern California sold in March, a 52% jump from a year earlier, a sizable number of those transactions occurred in Riverside and San Bernardino counties, where foreclosures exploded. In the region overall, foreclosure sales accounted for 55% of March's deals.
Bank-owned or not, the cheaper properties are dominating the sellers' block in the notoriously expensive L.A. County real estate market. In March, 2,871 homes under $300,000 were sold compared with only 734 a year earlier, according to real estate information firm MDA DataQuick.
At the higher end, just 202 homes priced above $1.2 million changed hands last month, compared with 354 in March 2008.
Houses priced from $400,000 to $800,000 represented less than a quarter of the market in March, down from about 45%, meaning fewer offerings for would-be buyers in that mid-market or pickier sellers, according to DataQuick.
click here for the complete story...
Located close by Trulia headquarters, this amazing condo is claimed to be on the ‘crookedest’ street in San Francisco. Boasting 1,434 sqft of space, the condo includes two beds, two baths, deeded walk-out garden, large pantry, dining room and overlooks lush greenery. It’s been recently reduced $10,000 AND they’re having an open house this Sunday!
In case you haven’t already done so, it’s time co call the local tax assessor and ask for the for, ‘the form.”
the form is of course a very simple document you send in to the county asking they re-evaluate your property’ for tax purposes...
you’ll need the comps for three similar houses in your neighborhood that sold between the first of the year and March 31st...
there’s a line towards the bottom that asks you to estimate what you think your property is worth, put your pride aside and go low...
Property tax revenue likely to stay weak
The steep drop in California home values will lower property tax revenue for years, undermining education and other critical public services, according to speakers at a roundtable discussion on Thursday.
The chief culprit is Proposition 13, the 1978 voter initiative that caps property tax increases at 2 percent a year unless homes trade hands, said the real estate, education and political experts speaking at the City Hall event organized by San Francisco Assessor-Recorder Phil Ting.
As hundreds of thousands of California properties fall into foreclosure and sell at values well off recent peaks, the amount of money funneled into government is declining dramatically, by nearly $400 million last year, according to an estimate by ForeclosureRadar.com. Those losses are likely to persist into the foreseeable future, with repossessions rising and owners forced to hold onto properties longer amid a real estate climate expected to remain chilly for years, the panelists said.
"Our tax roll will be significantly lower than last year," Contra Costa County Assessor Gus Kramer said. "Next year will be even worse, and 2011 will be even worse than that."
Communities are taking an additional hit from owners of depreciating homes who are appealing for temporary reductions in their taxes, as allowed under an amendment to the proposition.
Kris Vosburgh, executive director of the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association, countered that the proposition his organization championed provides predictability in property taxes, noting this is the first year they've declined since the passage of Prop. 13. He added that the measure protects owners, whose incomes often don't rise as quickly as property values, sometimes threatening their ability to meet the tax obligation and keep their homes.
"It gives security to both the homeowner and government," he said.
For years now, I’ve been in the business of designing and consulting on websites for real estate agents... I’m proud of most of my work but sometimes the client didn’t agree with what I was doing, but I did what was asked of me...
I officially got out of the design business a few weeks ago because the last agent I worked with pushed me over the edge... so here’s everything you need to know that no one is ever going to tell you (keep in mind this is based on years and years of experience and my past month of looking for a new house).
1. if you bought one of those fill in the blank websites where you pick the color and select from a series a templates, you’re wasting your time and money... send me the link to one you like, and i'll show you what's wrong with it...
2. your website is not about you... random people cruising the internet looking for homes are only looking for two things... a place they can easily search for homes and information about schools... no one cares you’re involved in the PTA, donate one percent of your commissions to homeless purebred poodles or that you have a BA from Smith College...
3. school information is the Holy Grail of search... I can tell you first hand this past month has been hell.... I’ve preached it for years and i’ll say it here... every single person moving to your town with kids needs reliable school information... they don’t want to be redirected to the school district’s website, or the state’s website on school scores... provide solid information and test scores in an easy to read format and you’ll be the go to destination of million of buyers
4. no one cares what awards you’ve won... I mean no one... half the times no one even knows what they’re about... the endless streams of initials after your name, the President’s Award for 2006 or that you were a Top Producer... What is a Top Producer? There is no definition, so if you can explain it to me, feel free to put it in the comments below.
5. you don’t need five phone numbers on your website... JUST PUT DOWN THE NUMBER WHERE PEOPLE CAN FIND YOU... here’s what I typically find on sites under contact number: office, direct, home, cell and fax... who the hell faxes any more...
the only number people want and need is your cell... I don’t have the time or desire to call four numbers trying to hunt you down, nor does anyone else... if you’re trying to give the appearance you’re always reachable, it’s not working...
I’ll be back Friday with more advice that’s going to save you time and make you money
Home prices in the Bay Area (yes, I do read the comments) continue their record slide towards the basement. Only Vegas and Phoenix had worse months... for the past 12 months the Bay Area is down 31 percent, Phoenix 35.2 and Las Vegas 31.7 percent...
The good news is the level of decline as slowed, and nationally it wasn't a record month of declines for the first time in 16 months...
Another problem seems to be some sellers, those I’m guessing underwater with the mortgages are still not coming down in price.... leaving lots of unsold inventory...
This past weekend I was at an open house clearly $300,000 over value... when I asked the agent, who turned out to be the seller who she expected to pay the nutty price, I was told it was an, “emotional buy.” I wished her luck and hoped she found a banker who was as emotional about making the loan...
Here’s what the Wall Street Journal has to say about the latest on home prices...
The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index, a closely watched gauge of U.S. home prices, continued to post declines in February but the pace stopped setting records after 16 consecutive months.
In the 20-city index, no area experienced year-over-year price gains, the eleventh straight month that has happened. Further, none of the cities managed to avoid month-to-month declines for the fifth month in a row.
Phoenix, Las Vegas and San Francisco continued to lead year-over-year decliners, with drops over 30%. Cleveland posted a large month-to-month drop, as the rate of decline accelerated there. The rates of decline also accelerated in Charlotte, New York and Washington.
Home sales increased 63.8 percent in March in California compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home declined 39 percent, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported today.
“The March sales figure of 522,980 homes indicates that the market continues to be very active,” said C.A.R. President James Liptak. “All of the regions in the state experienced increases in month-to-month raw sales, with the smallest gain in the Sacramento region at 9.7 percent and the largest gain in the Riverside/San Bernardino region at 32.2 percent.”
Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled 522,980 in March at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations statewide. Statewide home resale activity increased 63.8 percent from the revised 319,290 sales pace recorded in March 2008. Sales in March 2009 decreased 16 percent compared with the previous month.
The statewide sales figure represents what the total number of homes sold during 2009 would be if sales maintained the March pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.
The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during March 2009 was $253,040, a 39 percent decrease from the revised $414,520 median for March 2008, C.A.R. reported. The March 2009 median price rose 2.2 percent compared with February’s $247,590 median price.
“The statewide median price showed the first monthly increase since August 2007, and has remained in the $250,000 range over the past three months,” said C.A.R.’s Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “A number of regions around the state also have registered monthly gains for one or more months since the beginning of this year. While these are welcome signs, it remains to be seen whether home prices have stabilized.
“While we still face continued weakness in the general economy and expect continued foreclosures, the increased incidence of multiple offers indicates that first-time home buyers and investors are responding to dramatically improved housing affordability. Low mortgage rates and house prices, coupled with the federal first-time home buyer tax credit, is having a definite impact on the California housing market,” Appleton-Young added.
Highlights of C.A.R.’s resale housing figures for March 2009:
. C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes in March 2009 was 5 months, compared with 12.2 months (revised) for the same period a year ago. The index indicates the number of months needed to deplete the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate.
. Thirty-year fixed-mortgage interest rates averaged 5 percent during March 2009, compared with 5.97 percent in March 2008, according to Freddie Mac. Adjustable-mortgage interest rates averaged 4.86 percent in March 2009, compared with 5.12 percent in March 2008.
. The median number of days it took to sell a single-family home was 48.3 days in March 2009, compared with 56.8 days (revised) for the same period a year ago.
"short sale pricing without the hassle of short sales and the uncertainty of used home."
"pricing that competes with short sales and foreclosed properties"
The funny thing is, the homes aren't short sales, the builder is just using the term to get folks in the door... buyers have become so accustomed to looking for short sales and foreclosures, suddenly it's a way to move inventory...
D.R. Horton has even bought the domain BuliderShortSaleCA ... Clearly for buyers it’s not a good sign... a slippery slope as they say in the cliche business... When sellers go about marketing their listings as, “short sale pricing,” when they’re not...
Horton is counting on folks Googling the words, short, sale, builder and CA. to round up business...
Horton does has several developments here in the Bay Area...
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Sales of existing homes fell in March, according to an industry report released Thursday, but analysts say the housing market is showing signs of stabilization.
The National Association of Realtors said that existing home sales fell last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.57 million units, 3% lower than the downwardlyrevised rate of 4.71 million in February.
March sales were down 7.1% year over year, and came in weaker than the 4.65 million rate forecast by analysts surveyed by Briefing.com.
Despite last month's decline, existing home sales appear to be stabilizing, according to Ian Shepherdson, economist at High Frequency Economics.
"Sales are volatile month-to-month, but the trend appears to be flattening off," Shepherdson said in a research note.
Single family home sales, which are considered the core of the market, fell at a 10% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2009, after a 17.4% drop in the last three months of 2008. At the current sales pace, existing-home sales will be down "only" 2% in the second quarter, according to Shepherdson.
First-time buyers made up 53% of existing home sales in March. Charles McMillan, NAR's president, said first-time buyers are "crucial" to a recovery in the overall housing market.
"The housing market always heals from the bottom up, and with large numbers of first-time buyers entering the market it will become a little easier for sellers to trade up or down," McMillan said in a statement.
Meanwhile, sales of "distressed properties" accounted for over half of all transactions in March. Foreclosed homes typically sell for 20% less than traditional homes, according to NAR.
"Clearly foreclosure activity is driving the marketplace," said Adam York, an economist at Wachovia Economics Group, in a research report. "Buyers are clearly looking for 'bargains,' if they are looking at all."
Existing home sales in the West declined 4.2% in March. Sales in the South and the Northeast also fell, while sales in the Midwest were unchanged.
The national median existing-home price was $175,200 in March, up 4.2% from $168,200 in February. Still, the median existing-home price was down more than 12% since March 2008, when it was $200,100.
The total number of existing homes on the market at the end of March fell 1.6% to 3.74 million units. At the current sales pace, it would take an estimated 9.8 months to sell that inventory of properties. That's down from 9.7 months in February.
"The inventory overhang has stabilized too," Shepherdson said. But the number of existing homes on the market remains historically high, and prices will continue to fall rapidly "for the foreseeable future," he said. To top of page
For years now I’ve heard agents warn other agents not to market themselves as the, ‘luxury home specialist’ or the ‘Marina agent’ because one day it would come back to haunt them...
BOO!
It appears that day has arrived for the luxury agents... One of the town’s top agents is now bemoaning her crown... Seems she has a handful of multi-million dollars listings and none of them are selling and more coming on everyday... She takes full responsibility, and says the cost of keeping those listings is a major drain...
She admits the last few years have been good to her, but it’s been awhile since she’s sold anything...
Her decision, time to rebrand...
Love to hear from other agents on where they stand on the ‘luxury’ marketing title
The number of homes sold in the Bay Area rose for the seventh month in a row in March, the result of continued bargain hunting and foreclosure-discounted communities.
The past year's steep drop in the median price slowed significantly, indicating that the market might be near its price bottom, real estate information service MDA DataQuick reported.
In Santa Clara County, 1,288 houses and condos were sold in March, almost 17 percent higher than the same period a year ago but nevertheless the second-lowest amount in DataQuick records. The median price was $425,000, a 38 percent drop from the year-ago price. A month earlier the median price was $421,000.
Of the homes sold in the county, about 45 percent had been foreclosed on during the year.
A total of 6,325 new and resale houses and condos closed escrow in the nine-county Bay Area last month. That was up 25.7 percent from 5,032 in February and up 29.1 percent from 4,898 in March 2008, according to San Diego-based DataQuick.
Last year's March was the slowest in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. Last month was the third-slowest March of all time, ahead of last year and 6,210 sales in March 1995. March sales have averaged 9,025 and peaked in March 2004 at 12,645 sales.
"More than any other region, the Bay Area is waiting for so-called jumbo loans to come back on line. Even with prices off their peaks, most home purchases in the upper half of the market still require a mortgage for more than $417,000, which are far more difficult to come by. We think there’s a good chance those larger loans will become more available during the second or third quarter,” said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.
Rates Edge Downward on Monday, According to Zillow® Mortgage Rate Monitor
The weekly average rate borrowers were quoted on Zillow Mortgage Marketplace for thirty-year mortgages remained relatively flat during the past week. Last week's rate was 5.10 percent, up slightly from 5.08 percent the week prior, according to the Zillow Mortgage Rate Monitor, compiled by leading real estate Web site Zillow.com®. Meanwhile, rates for 15-year fixed mortgages decreased to 4.73 percent, down from 4.77 percent and 5-1 adjustable rate mortgages also decreased, down to 4.65 percent from 4.71 percent the week prior.
Average Rate Average Rate
Mortgage Type Week ending 4/12/09 Week ending 4/05/09 % Change
For years I’ve wondered and asked aloud why real estate agents put their photos on their business cards... It’s a trend that HASN’T caught on in the business world... I’m guessing Steve Jobs doesn’t have his photo on his card, nor does Bill Gates or Warren Buffet... I’ve heard all the reasons directly from the agents themselves... None of the explanations plausible... What I can tell you is the shock I’ve experienced meeting an agent for the first time who doesn’t look a thing like the prom photo she’s been using on her card for years...
So today I’m happy to announce the folks at the Huffington Post have taken up the issue of photos on business cards... They offer a little insight into the right and wrong way to go about doing it....
If you’re a big fan of Gregg Allman, and buying chunks of rock and roll memorabilia are you in luck.... The auction company WIlliams & Williams will be selling the Hall of Fame Rocker's San Rafael house come April 21st.... Opening bids for the 4 bedroom, 2.5 bath home will begin at $250,000... You’re welcome to do your bidding online... It should be pointed out that others have owned the house since Gregg called it home....
If you’re interest in photos or a REALLY bad virtual tour, click on the link below....
Wonderful eco-friendly home located in one of the hippest parts of the city, right by Dolores Park. Listed for a great price, the two level condo boasts bamboo floors, a soak tub with a separate shower, double vanity, granite counters, stainless steel appliances, fireplace, private deck and additional rooftop deck. Public transportation is at your fingertips.
Sometimes there are other factors that go into determining a price... Sure there’s the traditional supply and demand factors, but a good news article can go a long way swinging price pendulum one way or the other... This morning the National Insurance Crime Bureau released its list of U.S. Cities with the highest car theft rates... Proudly making the top ten is San Francisco... So suddenly having a indoor parking space my be more than just convenient...
The top ten list goes like this....
1. Modesto, CA
2. Laredo, Texas
3. Yakima, Washington
4. San Diego, CA
5. Bakersfield, CA
6. Stockton, CA
7. Las Vegas, NV
8. Albuquerque, N.M.
9. San Francisco/Oakland
10. Fresno, CA
It seems these days more and more agents are going the route of the press release to get out their listings, to market themselves or make a dollar or two off referrals...
Today it seems Michael LaPeter , a San Francisco agent has gone the route of trying to make a buck or two off referrals by issuing a press release online and maybe some advice.
LaPeter’s press release is chuck full of links to services he’s endorsing to help agents save money in a slow market... What he fails to mention is some of the links are more than likely getting him a referral fee...
When you click on the links he offers, each URL links back to his account... I have no problem with someone making a living, especially if the service really is a help...
With that said, take his advice with a grain of salt, and remember he’s probably getting a cut of the clicks that turn into clients for the sites he’s offering...
The advice he’s offering is titled:
Starving Real Estate Agent? Seven Ways To Cut The Fat And Start Saving
Here’s his advice:
As a real estate agent, you can't count on any financial bailout to save your business during this recession. These seven tips by Michael LaPeter, an active real estate broker in San Francisco, will help you trim the fat and make your business lean, mean, and most of all more productive:
1. Use Free Online Office Software.
A relatively new phenomena, several companies now offer free software that can essentially replace Microsoft Office and other expensive office software. You can spell check, cut and paste, format your text, and do everything else the average writer would need to online. As an added bonus, your documents are automatically saved and stored online, so you never need to worry about backing up your files or what happens if your computer is lost or stolen. My favorite is Google Docs, which can be found by simply googling "Google Docs".
2. Use Free/ Low Cost Online Transaction Management Software.
If you're looking for a quick way to differentiate yourself and offer great service to your clients, try using free/ low cost online transaction management software such as Basecamp. You can add tasks, milestones, messages, upload documents, and best of all your client can login and view his listing or purchase status at anytime. You save money by not needing a transaction coordinator, your clients love the transparency, and you'll save time because there will be less emails and calls back and forth.
3. Use Low Cost, High Impact Single Property Websites.
If you want to win more listings, you'll need to differentiate yourself during the listing presentation. Consider creating a free single property website from a low cost company such as Single Property Websites. They'll let you create a free preview version for your listing presentation, and if you win the listing it's only $9 to activate your single property website. Your competitors are already using single property websites... what have you got to lose?
4. Use Free/ Low Cost Online CRM Software.
Most Customer Relationship Management software, especially that made for the real estate industry, is notoriously hard to use. Are a few custom fields worth hundreds of dollars and hours of syncing and tech headaches? If you don't think so either, try Highrise, an online CRM that lets you manage up to 250 contacts for free, with more powerful plans available for only a few dollars a month.
5. Track Your Expenses.
While this sounds obvious, you'd be surprised by how many agents have no idea how much they're spending or what they're spending it on. It's no surprise: real estate agents are usually social animals, and digging into a heavyweight accounting program such as quickbooks is downright painful. For personal finances, I recommend Mint.com. You can link your accounts in about five minutes, and because they only track your finances (you can't transfer or withdraw anything), they're very safe.
6. Instead of Advertising, Try Picking Up The Phone.
I learned this idea from the course "Ninja Selling" by Larry Kendall. His great advice: make 50 brief calls to people you know every week and offer them real estate information of value (sales in their neighborhood, market update, etc.). This costs you nothing, and is probably the single most effective thing you can do to generate more business. Try it for a month.
7. Consider Working From Home. If you're an experienced agent and not doing it already, consider working from home. You'll save on commuting costs, those occasional lattes, and going out to lunch. Note that working from home isn't for everybody, especially new agents or those who have trouble focusing. New agents need the interaction and experience from co-workers, and those who can't focus will lose more money than they save on lost productivity!
Real estate is an incredibly fulfilling career, and the steps you take now can not only help you ride out the recession, they can put you in prime position for the coming recovery. Powerful new tools such as single property websites are making it easier than ever to save money. Stay hopeful, stay hungry, and best of luck!
Whether discount brokers will ever really change the real estate business is still an open question. According to a survey of 10,000 home buyers and sellers conducted by the National Association of Realtors, only nine percent chose a "limited service" broker, which is defined as anyone charging discount commissions, flat fees, or hourly rates.
Silicon Valley once thought it could replace the old-fashioned Realtor, touring would-be buyers around town in a well-worn Mercedes, with online agents working remotely for cut-rate commissions. It hasn't worked out that way.
ZipRealty and privately held Redfin, two firms slugging it out in the online realty business, are posting some better numbers recently. But both have had to change their business models radically, making them look a lot more like the traditional real estate agencies they once hoped to put out of business.
The first of the dot-home contenders was Zip, which was launched in 1999 with funding from Benchmark Capital, one of the early backers of eBay. Zip, like Redfin, is a discount broker, meaning it shares some of its sales commissions with its clients. This is a different business from that of real estate search sites, such as Zillow.com, Yahoo Real Estate, and MSN Real Estate, which list homes for sale and sell advertising on their sites but don't actually try to handle the sale.
McGuire Real Estate and Oakland's Maison Nouveau have announced the merger of the two companies.
"This merger provides new opportunities for McGuire and its clients. With the addition of the Maison Nouveau team, we are able to provide Bay Area-wide coverage with seven offices. We have been interested in expanding our East Bay presence, but waited for the right opportunity to partner with an established marketplace leader such as Maison Nouveau," said Charles Moore, CEO of McGuire Real Estate.
LOS ANGELES (April 2) – The CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) today launched the C.A.R. Housing Affordability Fund Mortgage Protection Program (C.A.R.H.A.F. MPP) for first-time home buyers.
Through the Housing Affordability Fund Mortgage Protection Program, first-time home buyers who lose their jobs due to layoffs may be eligible to receive up to $1,500 per month, for six months, to help make their mortgage payments. A qualified co-buyer also can participate in the program, and receive a monthly benefit of $750 per month for up to six months. Program benefits also include coverage for accidental disability and a $10,000 death benefit.
C.A.R.’s Housing Affordability Fund is dedicating $1 million toward its Mortgage Protection Program, and estimates that as many as 3,000 families will benefit from the program this year.
“The Mortgage Protection Program was developed to help ease the anxiety of consumers who are concerned about potential job loss and its impact on their ability to pay their mortgage should they purchase a home,” said C.A.R. President James Liptak. “It also provides peace of mind to those buyers who are actively searching for a home.”
To qualify for the Mortgage Protection Program, applicants must:
Be a first-time home buyer – someone who has not owned a home in three or more years
Open escrow April 2, 2009, or later, and close on or before Dec. 31, 2009
Use a California REALTOR® in the transaction
Purchase the property in California
Be a W-2 employee (cannot be self-employed)
To apply for the program, home buyers must request an application for the H.A.F. Mortgage Protection Program from their REALTOR®.
Over the past few months I’ve talked about how the new trend in open houses is the food and wine parade... Agents are busting out their credit cards and springing for better food and drink in an effort to attract not only more open house visitors, but I’m guessing a better class of visitors... I’ll be the first to admit there were plenty of times on broker tour days I would arrange my stops around who was serving food....
The better grub also goes a long way in convincing the client you’re doing your best to get the place sold... So when I came across a press release for a listing in the City, I was not only blown away that an agent took the time to put out a release , but she include the menu for the open house, which in her words consists of: “an art show, interior design showcase, live music, scotch tasting, chocolate tasting, trade booths for fine furniture, faux painting, painting, rentals, banking and more.”
So let’s give credit where credit is do, Zephyr Real Estate Agent Bonnie Spindler, you are the agent of the day.... www.bonniespindler.com
The news that no one missed yesterday was the continued slide in home prices, but things are slowing... For the year the City is down nearly 33 percent.... Only Las Vegas and Phoenix were worse off... but for those of you who prefer your facts in chart form, here's my contribution to your day....
WASHINGTON (AP) — Home prices sank by the sharpest annual rate on record in January, and the pace continues to accelerate, but there were a handful battered metro areas where price declines slowed, according to data released Tuesday.
The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 major cities tumbled by a record 19 percent from January 2008. It was the largest decline since the index started in 2000. The 10-city index dropped 19.4 percent, also a new record.
All 20 cities in the report showed monthly and annual price declines, with 13 posting new annual records. Prices dropped by more than 10 percent in 14 cities. Faring better were Dallas, Denver and Cleveland, with annual price declines of around 5 percent.
"There are very few bright spots that one can see in the data," David Blitzer, chairman of S&P's index committee, said in a prepared statement. "Most of the nation appears to remain on a downward path."
In the Cleveland, Los Angeles, Las Vegas and Washington D.C. metro areas — all ravaged by foreclosures_ annual price declines eased somewhat. Meanwhile, six cities, including Minneapolis, Charlotte, Seattle and New York, showed smaller price declines in January compared with December.
A new study of home buying trends says folks with cash are starting to buy again, not to mention KB Homes, not a big seller here in the Bay Area, but a good indicator of where things are headed reported on Friday that orders for new homes rose for the first time since 2005... Further proof came this week with the sale of a Belvedere home for 5 million dollars that sold in less than 30 days...
Sellers do seem to be more willing to put big homes on the market... This Greenbrae home is coming on the market this week.... $3,495.000 (5 bedrooms, 4.5 baths, 4,600 sq. ft and a jumbo flat lot with pool)... Marin real estate legend Barbara Major got the listing 415.381.7369... Seems to be an indicator seller's are willing to test the waters once again
SAN FRANCISCO – The weak economy is proving to be a blessing for still-employed renters who were forced to beg, line up and pay skyrocketing prices for apartments just six months ago.
Rents are tumbling as units are vacated by laid-off workers.
“We’re running a vacancy rate which is unheard of in San Francisco,” said Janan New, executive director of the San Francisco Apartment Association. “I don’t know if rents have gone into a total free fall, but clearly they’re coming down.”
Property owners are having a difficult time renting higher-end apartments, according to New. At the lower end of the market, apartment owners are being worn down by longtime San Franciscans taking advantage of the weak market to move into better homes or new neighborhoods.
“There are clearly people moving within The City — hard bargainers who have been here for a while and know the drill,” New said. “But we’re not seeing people from outside coming into The City.”
To fill empty units, owners of large apartment complexes are offering prospective tenants significant incentives, such as a month of free rent or free parking, according to Colliers International San Francisco broker Stephen Jackson. “Mom and pop” property owners will be forced to follow suit, he said.
“If you want to start negotiating your rent with your landlord, they’re going to have to lower it,” Jackson said. “Rents are dropping by $200 citywide.”
The spike in vacancies is a likely harbinger of further declines in rent, according to Caroline Latham, owner of RealFacts, a San Francisco-based real estate research firm that’s finalizing first-quarter data.
“People who were surveying said they hardly found any [units] with rents up, that a lot were unchanged and some were down. But overall, occupancy was down significantly,” Latham said. “Occupancy is the predictor of what’s going to happen to future [rent prices].”
Units are being vacated as laid-off workers move out of The City or into existing households with family members or friends, according to Latham and others.
“You can bet that household size is growing,” Latham said.
Earlier this month I talked about how sellers were putting more pressure on agents to sell; this listing is one of those... Following a Bay Area trend I've been hearing about, sellers are now giving agents deadlines to sell by, or asking their properties be pocket listings only... A recent top agent list I saw was nearing 100 homes... I'm not sure how avoiding the open market benefits sellers... Love some insight...
Located on a 3/4 acre lot is this custom home built in 2006 in classic Ross style. Exquisite 5BR/4BA with a new addition currently being constructed that could be a library, office or another bedroom. Features top of the line finishes, Brazilian plank cherry floors, custom Crystal cabinetry, wainscoting and crown molding. Covered wrap-around Connecticut Blue Stone porches and large level lawn. Easy commute to downtown Tiburon or SF.
If you’re in the business of selling real estate, the search for clients who aren’t friends or family is always the challenge... So I’m proud to let you all know the next growing pocket of buyers is renters....
With stunningly low interests rates (I got 4.375 yesterday on a 30 year fixed) and record low home prices, renters are the new buyers....
Consider eveyr renter in Pac Heights your next client... It's time to get you name in the laundromats of the City’s best neighborhoods... Flyers on cars near the better apartment buildings or buy yourself an ad in the most niche of neighborhood papers.... Better yet consider finding a blog the serves the neighborhoods of renters... Can’t find the right blog, let me know and I’ll be happy to help...
The jump from renter to buyer has become to obvious, even the mainstream press it talking about it...
Here’s what the folks at Reuters news service had to say...
By Julie Haviv
NEW YORK (Reuters) - After six years of renting in San Francisco, Kate Wilusz jumped at the chance to swap her tiny apartment for a roomy four-bedroom Victorian home. But she is paying a mortgage instead of rent -- and coming out even.
"I could not be more thrilled," said Wilusz, a financial planner who recently closed on the dream house with her husband, Charley.
In some U.S. markets, prices appear to have fallen enough to make buying cheaper than renting. Mix that with mortgage rates that are near record lows and renters who want to become buyers are rejoicing.
"The U.S. government is helping bail out those who bought at the top, but I got my own personal stimulus package through falling home prices and low interest rates on mortgages," said Wilusz, who works at Ameriprise Financial.
Wilusz said instinct told her it was time to buy, and her new home costs her as much to own as it would have to rent.
"Everyone was saying home prices in San Francisco would never go down, but any time someone says something will never happen, it usually happens and it is time to be a contrarian," she said.
San Francisco, one of the metropolitan areas covered in the widely watched Standard & Poor's S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, has shown significant home price depreciation. Home prices fell 3.8 percent in December from November.
San Francisco was also one of the worst-performing cities in terms of year-over-year declines in December, with home prices dropping an average 31.2 percent.
The signs of an improving San Francisco real estate market area everywhere these days... What’s selling might no be the multiple bid deals of yesteryear, but foreclosures and short sales are taking the bad inventory off the market... Skidding mortgage rates are doing their job, so today’s announcement of an unexpected rebound in existing homes sales is good all around.
Existing-home sales rebounded in February, climbing above expectations, but prices plunged again.
Home resales climbed to a 4.72 million annual rate, a 5.1% increase from January's unrevised 4.49 million annual pace, the National Association of Realtors said Monday.
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Foreclosures and short sales reflect about 45% of total existing-home sales. Distressed properties are discounted, so the abundance of these sales prices new homes out of the market, discouraging construction and weakening the overall housing sector further.
With so many distressed sales, the median price for an existing home fell last month. At $165,400 in February, the median price was down 15.5% from $195,800 in February 2008. The median price in January this year was $164,800. The 15.5% plunge is the second biggest ever, behind January's 17.5% drop.
The sharp tumble in prices, falling because of bloated inventory, is restraining demand. Monday's data showed inventories of previously owned homes rose 5.2% at the end of February to 3.8 million available for sale, which represented a 9.7-month supply at the current sales pace. There was a 9.7-month supply at the end of January.
The median home price in San Francisco Bay Area last month dropped below $300,000 for the first time in almost a decade... Yes, below $300,000.... And folks are starting to buy again based on facts from MDA DataQuick.
The median price fell to $295,000, down a record 46 percent from $548,000 a year earlier and reaching the lowest level since 1999...A total of 5,032 new and existing houses and condominiums sold last month in the nine-county region, up 26 percent from a year earlier.
Northern California prices are being driven down by a rise in foreclosures, with properties in default typically selling at a discount. Stricter lending standards for more expensive properties are affecting the market as well according to MDA DataQuick. Less than 18 percent of Bay Area homes were purchased with loans of more than $417,000 last month, down from 62 percent before credit tightening began in August 2007.
Check out this single family home just listed in Noe Valley. The home includes three beds and one bath, open living room with high ceilings, inlaid hardwood floors and a bay of windows with a picture frame molding and decorative fireplace. Adjacent to a bedroom is a walk-through formal dining room with skylights and hardwood floors. There’s also an open kitchen that features a six burner Wolf range with griddle, hanging pot rack, stainless appliances, white cabinets, a center island and pantry. The master bedroom includes a central deck with awesome views. All for $885K.
Sorry if the numbers are a little small, but best I could do with the space given... if you need help with specific numbers, feel free to drop me a note.
The weekly average rate borrowers were quoted on Zillow Mortgage Marketplace for
thirty-year mortgages fell for thefirst time in a month to 5.21 percent, down from 5.28 percent
the week prior,according to the Zillow Mortgage Rate Monitor, compiled by leading real estate
Web site Zillow.com®. Meanwhile, rates for 15-year fixed mortgages dropped to
4.78 percent, down from 4.82 percent and 5-1 adjustable rate mortgages
increased, up to 4.71 percent from 4.64 percent the week prior.
If you grew-up in California you heard your fair share of people telling you California was going to fall in the ocean and Nevada would be nothing but ocean front property.
A new study out says global warming and raising ocean levels are going to make inland California ocean front property, leaving San Francisco nothing more than a jumbo puddle...
The report estimates about 100 billion dollars of real estate will be claimed by raising ocean levels and without some reason considerations to damage control we're doomed...
here's how the report put's it...
"No part of the world famous bay area is safe and San Francisco's Embarcadero and parts of Richmond, West Oakland, Alameda, Sausalito and Alviso will all be underwater unless levees or other protective structures are built, it is claimed."
It seems Americans are waking to the idea they don't need 4,000 square feet of living space.
According to the USA Today as Californian's we helping led the way toward more eco-friendly homes and better building ideas...
Here's how the USA Today explains it...
When architect Sarah Susanka remodeled her kitchen, she didn't use pricey granite or edgy concrete for her countertops. She used laminate. Her cabinets: Ikea.
"You can save thousands of dollars" by using simple materials in a well-designed space, says Susanka, author of the best-selling 1998 book The Not So Big House.
For more than a decade, she has urged people to build better, not bigger. Now, as the U.S. economy struggles to climb out of a tailspin and environmental concerns rise, her message has gone mainstream.
New homes, after doubling in size since 1960, are shrinking. Last year, for the first time in at least 10 years, the average square footage of single-family homes under construction fell dramatically, from 2,629 in the second quarter to 2,343 in the fourth quarter, Census data show.
The new motto: living well with less.
"There's a shift in the culture," says Susanka, whose new book, Not So Big Remodeling, helps homeowners use existing space better. She says the economy has forced people to rethink McMansions and focus instead on what they need.
Located right by Cesar Chavez and the 280 freeway, this 1,244 sqft Central Waterfront loft is totally worth it. The spacious loft includes one bed, one and half baths, large private deck and deeded parking, The kitchen features granite counter tops and stainless steel appliances. The unit also features stone tiles in the bathrooms, in-unit washer and dryer and within walking distance to the Dogpatch bars and restaurants and public transit. It’s surely worthy of attending an open house this weekend.
I came across an ad this week in one of the neighborhood papers....two agents had taken out a full page to market their listings... The page was divided into six equal squares with listing ranging from $2.79 million to $4.2 million with the top left square as you can see asking if the market had it bottom... And then suggesting the only way to find out was to make an offer... So it wasn’t clear to me if they were telling potential buyers the homes the were selling were clearly overpriced, or the sellers were desperate...
If you’ve seen a bad, ad drop me a note... And I’ll be sure to post it here so we can all learn from the mistakes of others...
The Golden State has once again become the land of opportunity for scammers. The California Department of Real Estate and the federal government are warning folks looking to refinance their trouble mortgages to be weary of scams.
According to published reports, firms, lawyers and real estate agents are offering to help arrange for new financing for troubled homeowners for a fee, in some case charging more than a $1,000... The bill passed by Congress made available millions of dollars to counseling centers to provide, “foreclosure prevention” help for FREE.
According to California DRE 300 companies already have come forward to setup camp offering fee charging loan modification. THERE IS NO FEE TO MODIFY YOUR LOAN IF YOU QUALIFY. If you’re not sure if you qualify, you can call the "Hope Hotline" at 888-995-4673 or visit the website Hopenow.com
The President has repeatedly said troubled homeowners don’t need to pay anybody for these services.
So if you do have a client come to you looking for advice, remind them Uncle Sam is picking up the freight and suggest they call the Hope Hotline at 888-995-4673.
The only positive thing I can say about this one is that homes are getting more affordable everday... otherwise here's the bad news from Reuters
U.S. home price drops accelerated in January, falling 3.5 percent from December and erasing another $610 billion from the value of housing stock, according to the IAS360 House Price Index released on Tuesday.
That drop brings the destruction in home equity wealth since the financial crisis deepened in September to about $2.4 trillion, said Integrated Asset Management, a Denver-based default management and property valuation company that compiled the index.
Home prices have fallen 24.7 percent since the peak of the housing market in November 2006, according to IAS's data. Some Florida counties have seen home prices decline more than 50 percent, it showed.
The "tailspin continues" for the U.S. housing market, IAS said in a statement.
Among census regions, Midwestern homes have suffered some of the worst depreciation since September, topping the nation in January with a 4.5 percent fall, IAS said. All other census regions saw price drops of more than 3 percent.
The weekly average rate borrowers were quoted on Zillow Mortgage
Marketplace for thirty-year mortgages remained
relatively steady for the third consecutive week at 5.28 percent, down
slightly from 5.29 percent the week prior, according to the Zillow Mortgage
Rate Monitor, compiled by leading real estate Web site Zillow.com®.
Meanwhile, rates for 15-year fixed mortgages dropped to 4.82 percent, down
from 4.89 percent and 5-1 adjustable rate mortgages dropped considerably,
down to 4.64 percent from 4.93 percent the week prior.
As is the tradition here in San Francisco, spring is a very good time of year for not only for homes sellers, but buyers....
Victor Fisher with Vision Real Estate thinks this spring will be no different. He sees, "A plethora of inventory thrust upon the market... a lot of first time buyers will take advantage of this historic opportunity and the more seasoned buyers looking for more smoking deals."
The NY Times in a flip flopping sort of story sees some good signs in the spring market here in San Francisco, but not to many...
The Times points out there are signs of improvement, but probably not enough to turn the market around...
Below is their take on the spring market here in California...
A Gloomy Outlook for Home Sales’ Big Season
By VIKAS BAJAJ
The “For Sale” signs are just starting to sprout, but already experts worry that this spring home-buying season will be even grimmer than the last.
Despite tentative signs of recovery in hard-hit areas like California and Florida, the broader housing market is far from reaching bottom, economists say. Across much of the nation, prices are likely to keep falling into 2010.
So this March-to-June season, when most homes are bought and sold, will be bad, perhaps the worst since the market began to spiral down in 2006.
Across the nation, 19 million houses and apartments — nearly one out of every seven — are vacant, the highest percentage since the 1960s. But only about six million of those homes are for sale or for rent. That means millions more could still flood onto the market, depressing prices further.
For would-be sellers, the bad news keeps coming. This week, one new report showed that one in nine mortgages was delinquent or in foreclosure, while another showed that January contract signings for sales of previously owned homes fell at their fastest pace in two years.
On Wednesday, the Obama administration announced details of a plan that will pay banks to lower monthly payments for troubled borrowers, hoping to avert millions of foreclosures and keep more homes occupied. Despite that effort, most analysts expect the outlook to worsen.
But as the recession deepens, the downturn in housing, where the economic crisis began, is starting to play out in new, unexpected ways. Cities where home values held up last year are suffering now, while some suburban areas where prices plunged are slowly starting to improve.
In inland areas of California, for instance, sales are surging now that prices have fallen sharply. But most of the sellers are not individuals but rather banks that foreclosed on homeowners who could not or would not pay their mortgages.
I was looking at a Bay Area homes magazine this morning, you know the one, it use to be 75 pages thick, this week its 16 pages including the back cover... in an ad for a real estate "team", they describe themselves in large font as,"progressive," and just below that as, "aggressive."
I had a friend with a pit bull that was aggressive, and not in a good way....
I'm not sure if the ad is the result of a weekend branding conference they attended, but I need clarification on what it means to be both aggressive and progressive...
If you know, or if you're the "team" in question, I'd love some insight... Feel free as always to leave your answers in the comments section.
Looking for a way to find new clients? Let me suggest you use this year’s biggest trend in real estate do so; requests for assessment review. Yes, folks from all over the great state of California are going to their county assessor to see about getting their property taxes lowered. But you only get one shot at it a year, and it needs to be done right...
Enter your local real estate expert...
Here’s how I see it working... The appeal process requires three comparable properties sale to be submitted along with your paper work for an assessment review... Now if I’m Joe the Plumber, where do I go to find comps... I’m guessing most folks don’t really know where to start... Enter your friendly neighborhood real estate agent... Not only do you stand a chance of helping someone save money, but you get an introduction to a potential new client on really friendly terms... Someone who now sees you as a friend when times are tough and when thing pick up, someone who they might like to return the favor...
What do you need to do? Spend all of 10 minutes on the MLS running down and printing out comps to help potential clients with the review process...
It’s that simple, you’re a real estate agent, and a friend who helps folks save money...
Be sure to check with your local assessor's office for deadlines and paperwork requirements...
I was visiting a real estate office this morning talking to an agent who just got a $3,00,000 listing... After chatting about the listing he mentioned the owners have no intentions of putting it on the MLS, I know it’s all the rage not to go on the MLS these days... The sellers are interested in buying a $4,000,000 home, but they want to gauge interest in their home first... So I was told the listing would go out to the usual top agent groups as well as various mailing lists...
I have access to dozens of these lists as well as mailing groups... I have to imagine so does everyone else...
I’m going to propose here staring a Twitter group that will help pass along the info when the new listing becomes available, but aren't going on the MLS... I can password protect the Tweets...
Twitter would be a great way to move the information along, protect the sellers and get even great exposure for the sellers...
Love to hear what everyone thinks...
Or follow me on Twitter at: http://twitter.com/sfreblog
It's that time of the day.... your daily does of bad news...
Pending sales of existing U.S. homes fell sharply in January, with an industry index dropping to a record low, according to a report on Tuesday that showed the deteriorating economy was keeping buyers on the sidelines.
The one bit of good news was foreclosures are again coming to the rescue... foreclosures now represent the biggest increase in home sales in California
If you're a real estate agent who Twitters, I'd love to start following your tweets... My goal is to post the best of the day's tweets to help agents looking to make the jump to social networking easier to understand, and see what good Twittering is all about...
Feel free to post your Twitter name in the comments section...
And if you're looking to improve your Twitter page, as always I suggest checking out, Twitter me up ... the site creates custom backgrounds that use the free space Twitter provides to create a branded page for your business.... I think prices start at around $25
Amidst the announcement of President Barack Obama's housing plan, and with mortgage rates reaching historic lows, real estate web site Zillow.com reports record-breaking traffic and loan request activity within its free marketplace for custom mortgage quotes, Zillow Mortgage Marketplace.
Over the past three months, as mortgage rates dropped to their lowest levels
in years, consumer interest in refinancing soared. More than 70,000 loan
requests were submitted from borrowers on Zillow Mortgage Marketplace in the
December through February time period, with the average number of daily loan
requests up 142 percent in this same period versus November 2008. Refinancing
requests accounted for more than 60 percent of all consumer loan requests over
this three-month period.
Meanwhile, increased consumer interest in refinancing and dropping home
prices resulted in a series of record traffic months for Zillow.com. February
traffic reached 7.9 million unique users, which is up 60 percent
year-over-year.
If the NY Times is truly the arbiters of what is and isn’t in, I’m afraid my favorite expression in real estate is on the outs, “trophy appliances.”
In all my days of writing real estate copy nothing gave me more pleasure than the expression, “trophy appliances...” It brought to mind images of home buyers stalking the elusive Viking stainless steel six burner range...
Now it’s all about using a polite versions of the words, reduced and value... Or so says the Times
A great read if you’re writing real estate copy theses days...
Adjectives Get Evicted
By TERI KARUSH ROGERS
FOR better and worse, the mentality that helped propel the city’s real estate prices into lunar altitudes is gone. Not only are there fewer buyers today, but they are also more apt to have a yard-sale attitude, demanding sharp discounts on top of reduced prices — Poggenpohl kitchen and last year’s comps be damned.
Racing to keep up with a down-market mindset, many real estate brokers say they have been experimenting with a new paradigm in advertising, spinning their ads like roulette wheels in the hope of landing in the sweet spot of the parsimonious post-Lehman buyer.
The model is shaping up like this: The new propriety frowns at luxury, lifestyle and the fetishistic focus on designer brands and architects. Instead, brokers say they are trying to recast their listings in terms of responsible spending, comfort and, most especially, value.
“Three or four years ago, value was something that was uncomfortable even to talk about,” said Bruce Ehrmann, an associate broker at Stribling & Associates. “Value suggested thrift, and thrift meant you couldn’t keep up.”
But now value has another ring and thrift has a nice kind of sound. “People are not buying emotionally or lustily — they’re buying in a calculated manner the likes of which we haven’t seen in 15 years, except briefly after 9/11,” Mr. Ehrmann said. “The draw tends to be location, price and value before glory, glamour, Valcucine kitchens and Waterworks baths.”
An attractive price is the most direct way to convey value, preferably set off by some variation of the formerly taboo “reduced.”
“We never used to say ‘reduced’ in a very strong market because we felt people would think of it as tainted goods,” said Deanna Kory, a senior vice president at Corcoran. “But now if you don’t, people don’t think the seller is serious, especially if it’s been on the market any length of time. And people today feel cheated if they don’t get a deal.”
This is especially true, she added, in “certain categories that are more saturated, like one-bedroom co-ops and downtown lofts from $3 million to $6 million.”
Still, brokers were divided on the proper lingua franca for conveying price reductions and incipient seller desperation.
A few months ago Hyundai, the South Korean automaker announced they would allow customers to return their cars within a year of a purchase or lease if they lost their job, no questions asked.
The idea has been catching on with others including airlines and now home builders...
High-end homebuilder Toll Brothers are now offering to cover your mortgage for up to six months if you loss your job.
The deal covers six months of mortgage payments, including principle, interest, real estate taxes and home owners insurance to a tune of $2,500... The catch is you have to lose your job within two years of closing.
I know all the talk these days is about foreclosures, and how well they’re selling... But from what I can gather, folks are still having a hard time tracking the properties down in the Bay Area... So at the request of many, I’m going to suggest two sites for finding foreclosures, but if you know of others, please leave them in the comments section...
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With so many companies cutting back on extra's like public relations, I wanted to take a minute to give the folks at Zephyr Real Estate a nod... out this morning their list of top producers, via a press release...
SAN FRANCISCO, CA--(Marketwire - February 26, 2009) - Zephyr Real Estate, San Francisco's largest independent real estate firm, is pleased to announce the company's top producing real estate agents of 2008.
Achieving the title of #1 Companywide Top Producer this year is Richard Meyerson, who has been a consistent top producer since 2001. Immediately following are Bonnie Spindler, #2 Companywide Top Producer, and Vicki Valandra, #3 Companywide Top Producer. The top commercial agent is Chris Foley. Leading the individual offices are Mollie Poe of the Pacific Heights office; Michael Ackerman of the Noe Valley location; Peter Goss of the Upper Market office; Britton E. Jackson of the SOMA/South Beach location; and Robin Hubinsky of the West of Twin Peaks office.
Companywide, the 53 leading sales producers of 2008 are as follows: Richard Meyerson, Bonnie Spindler, Vicki Valandra, Mollie Poe, Michael Ackerman, Anna Spathis, Tim Hawko, Deborah Nguyen, Peter Goss, Ken Eggers, Harry Clark, Britton E. Jackson, Tanja Beck, Faye Dibachi, Chris Foley, Andrew Roth, James Romeo Holloway, Christine Doud, Dean Catiis, Robin Hubinsky, Tuan Tran, Suzy Reily, Chris Sprague, Whitney B. Davis, Marion Broder, Julie Reber, Judy Rydell, Joan Loeffler, Darin Holwitz, Laura Kaufman, David Antman, Daniel Fernandez, Hugh Groocock, Jerry Wang, Amy Clemens, Susan Olk, Jan Medina, Theresa Sedell, William Kitchen, Steve Dells, Debbie Dells, Cathy Kline Saunders, Rita Roti, Todd Wiley, Jennifer Kauffman, Danielle Lazier, Ron Whitney, Diane Onken, Sandra Onken, Eric Castongia, Gary Small, Dan Healy and Mara Klein.
Depending on whose account of the story you believe, the San Francisco Chronicle is only going to be around for a few more weeks... I give them till the start of the third quarter, but it’s anyone’s guess... You have to figure the paper’s owners are either hoping for a big rally around the paper moment, or thought a swift slap to the head would rally the staff to except huge pay cuts... Unlikely though the paper can mount 50 million dollars in cuts... Who knows...
That aside my question is this... Where do the ad dollars go? Where do you place your open house ads? Does Craigslist win?
I’m looking for suggestions... Post in the comments section and let me know...
U.S. home prices fell a record 8.2 percent in 2008 as the recession and a surge of foreclosures caused the worst devaluation of real estate since the Great Depression.
The fourth-quarter figure was 3.4 percent lower than the prior quarter, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Federal Housing Finance Agency said today in a report. The decline is the largest on record, the Washington-based agency said.
Prices fell as banks seized real estate from delinquent borrowers. U.S. President Barack Obama said last week his new $275 billion housing program will help about 9 million homeowners lower monthly payments in a bid to keep new foreclosures in 2009 below last year’s all-time high of 2.7 million.
Remember in the old days, say six months ago when we were all told mortgage rates would fall to record lows, and a conforming mortgage would be the same as a jumbo... I was wondering what happened... I know the conforming limit for the Bay Area has been raised to around $600,000, and in some cases as high as $729,750...but it doesn’t seem to be translating into many new loans...
Finally the folks at the Wall Street Journal starting asking the same question...
Here’s what they learned...
Jumbo Mortgages, Jumbo Headaches
By NICK TIMIRAOS
Washington is trying to ease the mortgage crisis by helping people refinance into home loans with better terms. But one group is being left on the sidelines: borrowers with loans too big to qualify for government backing.
President Barack Obama's housing stability plan, announced last week, excludes such borrowers from nearly all of its mortgage-bailout provisions. Instead, it focuses on middle-income consumers who have lower, so-called conforming loans. Such loans top out at $417,000 in most parts of the country, though they can run as high as $729,750 in certain pricier markets, such as parts of California, New York and Hawaii.
Neil Littman, who lives near Boulder, Colo., says conforming-loan limits in the area are too low.
Anything bigger is called a "jumbo" loan -- and not only is the government ignoring this segment of the market, so are lenders, few of whom are originating or refinancing jumbo mortgages. The reason: Jumbo loans are too large to be guaranteed by a government-backed mortgage agency, such as Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, meaning banks assume the risk if the loan goes bad. In the current lending environment, few banks want to take on any risk.
That's hurting borrowers like Pete Zipkin, who's the kind of affluent customer that banks once coveted. The 35-year-old technology executive -- who says he has a spotless credit record and at least 20% equity in his home -- has come up empty-handed in his search for a jumbo mortgage of more than $1 million for his recently built five-bedroom home in Alamo, Calif., near San Francisco.
Although President Obama announced a sweeping Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan, the weekly average rate borrowers were quoted on Zillow Mortgage Marketplace for thirty-year mortgages remained steady last week at 5.25 percent, up slightly from 5.23 percent the week prior, according to the Zillow Mortgage Rate Monitor, compiled by leading real estate Web site Zillow.com®. Meanwhile, rates for 15-year fixed mortgages dropped to 4.86 percent, down from 4.93 percent and 5-1 adjustable rate mortgages also dropped, down to 5.07 percent from 5.19 percent the week prior.
Mortgage Type Average Rate Average Rate
Week ending 2/22/09 Week ending 2/15/09 % Change
30-year fixed 5.25% 5.23% 0.4%
15-year fixed 4.86% 4.93% -1.3%
5-1 ARM 5.07% 5.19% -2.4%
Rates for 30-year fixed purchase mortgages had fallen on Monday evening, with the average rate on Zillow Mortgage Marketplace at 5.14 percent. For the most current up-to-the-minute rates,
Thirty-year fixed mortgage rates varied by state. New York mortgage rates and Ohio mortgage rates decreased the most, dropping from 5.31 percent to 5.11 percent and from 5.48 percent to 5.26 percent, respectively. Florida mortgage rates (5.04%) and Pennsylvania mortgage rates (5.04%) were the lowest in the country while Tennessee mortgage rates (5.34%) were the highest. California mortgage rates were the most requested among all states.
The Zillow Mortgage Rate Monitor is compiled each week using thousands of mortgage rates quoted on Zillow Mortgage Marketplace by mortgage lenders to borrowers who have submitted loan requests. State-level data is gathered for the top 20 states with the highest quote volume on Zillow.
If you can get past the record number of home foreclosures, steep prices drops and the fact that more than half the homes now being sold in the Bay Area are in foreclosures, the news is all good....
Homes are selling again, that's good... excess inventory is getting taken out of the market and folks are collecting commissions... and with every foreclosed home sold comes a new proud set of homeowners looking to remodel and drop a few dollars into the economy....
Here's sgtates.com take on the new numbers out from DataQUick..
Foreclosures ignite hot Bay Area homes sales
The relentless surge of foreclosures spurred gangbuster sales and bargain prices for Bay Area homes in January, according to a real estate report released Thursday.
A total of 3,918 existing single-family homes changed hands in the nine-county region last month, a big jump from 2,312 sales in January 2008, according to research firm MDA DataQuick of San Diego.
For the first time, more than half - 54.2 percent - of all homes sold in the nine-county region were bank-owned foreclosures. Their fire-sale prices drove the median sales price for existing homes down to $304,000, a nine-year low.
"Despite virtually no signs of home prices stabilizing anywhere, plenty of people have decided it is time to buy, simply because of the increased affordability," said Andrew LePage, a DataQuick analyst. "Through all this bleak news on the economy and jobs and home prices still eroding, plenty of people who sat out the frenzied stages of the market are deciding it may not pay to wait now."
The priced-to-move foreclosures devastated the market for new construction. Only 340 new homes were sold in the Bay Area in January, almost half of the 657 sold in January 2007, and the slowest January sales since DataQuick started keeping records 21 years ago.
With the announcement of the President's plan to save homes from foreclosure, came with it a series of new rules and regulations... Most of them still unknown to the populous...
So for some clarity and advice I turned a professional... The least I can do for you...
I hate to cheapen a perfectly good day of blogging, but Pacific Union rumors are flying again... Today I've heard from three people that PacUnion's top producer Warren Mullen is seriously considering making the switch... Paper work is the only thing left to do one person told me...
Others leaving PacUnion include Colette Battaglia, Kimberly Faubert, and Beth Brody...
Stirring the pot further is Melissa Bradley with an email announcement that more than a half dozen agents have left their shops to join hers...
if you have news of any sort, be sure to drop me a note, or your leave comment in the comments section...
Brian Byers has also announced he's left Pacific Union for McGuire Real Estate... Which begs the question, is the Pacific Union Death Watch back!
McGuire Real Estate, a San Francisco-based real estate company specializing in luxury real estate, announced the appointment of Chris DeNike and Sharon Faccinto as sales associates in its Mill Valley office at 1040 Redwood Highway.
DeNike and Faccinto join McGuire from Pacific Union in Larkspur, CA where they worked as a team and focused on marketing and selling premium residential properties in Marin County.
Zillow has released its fourth quarter survey of homeowner confidence... It's a simple survey of what what home owners think their about home values vs Zillow's number... it's an interesting read, but I can already hear the complaining from here.... I know most of you don't like or care for the way Zillow prices homes, but it's still good reading..
Homeowner Confidence Survey
Homeowner Confidence Survey: For additional information about the Q4 Homeowner Confidence Survey, check out the regional breakdown, PDF, and graphics, featured below. Survey methodolgoy and analysis can also be found in the press release and on the Zillow Blog.
Homeowner Confidence vs. Actual Home Value Change
National Survey results:
• My Home's Value Has Increased Over Past Year: 25%
• My Home's Value Has Decreased Over Past Year: 57%
• My Home's Value Has Stayed the Same Over Past Year: 18%
Actual U.S. Home Values (according to Zillow data):
• Home Values Increasing: 20%
• Home Values Decreasing: 76%
• Home Values Staying the Same: 4%
Confidence About Own Home vs. Neighbors’ Homes
• My Own Home’s Value Will Decrease in Next Six Months: 30%
• Home Values in My Local Market Will Decrease in Next Six Months: 47%
Homeowner Confidence Survey Results by Region - Northeast:
• My Home's Value Has Increased Over Past Year: 23%
• My Home's Value Has Decreased Over Past Year: 57%
• My Home's Value Has Stayed the Same Over Past Year: 20%
Actual U.S. Home Values (according to Zillow data):
• Home Values Increasing: 24%
• Home Values Decreasing: 71%
• Home Values Staying the Same: 6%
Confidence About Own Home vs. Neighbors’ Homes:
• My Own Home’s Value Will Decrease in Next Six Months: 30%
• Home Values in My Local Market Will Decrease in Next Six Months: 46%
Homeowner Confidence Survey Results by Region - Midwest:
• My Home's Value Has Increased Over Past Year: 22%
• My Home's Value Has Decreased Over Past Year: 58%
• My Home's Value Has Stayed the Same Over Past Year: 20%
Actual U.S. Home Values (according to Zillow data):
• Home Values Increasing: 21%
• Home Values Decreasing: 73%
• Home Values Staying the Same: 5%
Confidence About Own Home vs. Neighbors’ Homes
• My Own Home’s Value Will Decrease in Next Six Months: 30%
• Home Values in My Local Market Will Decrease in Next Six Months: 47%
Homeowner Confidence Survey Results by Region - South:
• My Home's Value Has Increased Over Past Year: 33%
• My Home's Value Has Decreased Over Past Year: 47%
• My Home's Value Has Stayed the Same Over Past Year: 20%
Actual U.S. Home Values (according to Zillow data):
• Home Values Increasing: 25%
• Home Values Decreasing: 70%
• Home Values Staying the Same: 5%
Confidence About Own Home vs. Neighbors’ Homes:
• My Own Home’s Value Will Decrease in Next Six Months: 26%
• Home Values in My Local Market Will Decrease in Next Six Months: 44%
Homeowner Confidence Survey Results by Region - West:
• My Home's Value Has Increased Over Past Year: 19%
• My Home's Value Has Decreased Over Past Year: 70%
• My Home's Value Has Stayed the Same Over Past Year: 11%
Actual U.S. Home Values (according to Zillow data):
• Home Values Increasing: 9%
• Home Values Decreasing: 89%
• Home Values Staying the Same: 2%
Confidence About Own Home vs. Neighbors’ Homes
• My Own Home’s Value Will Decrease in Next Six Months: 37%
• Home Values in My Local Market Will Decrease in Next Six Months: 54%
If you’re a golf fan, this one’s for you! Located right by San Francisco Golf Club, you can drop by anytime for a great game of golf. Not the golfing type? There’s more! Just minutes away from SF State and Stonestown Galleria. Don’t miss this excellent deal! Just listed at $530K for three bedrooms and two baths on 1080sqft. Go check it out this weekend! Happy house hunting!
click here for the complete listing...
San Francisco based CNET, an online tech site best know for their reviews of tech products is now offering home buyers a list of places to turn for home buying advice... Most of them I’ve talked about in this blog before, the one surprise a was a site called Doorfly... CNET describes Doorfly this way...
“Instead of calling different real estate firms to find the best agent, you can use DoorFly to explain your needs and watch as real estate agents bid to work with you.”
There are a couple other sites out there doing the same thing as Doorfly, but whenever one of the big papers or websites take the time to review them, buyers start reconsidering their options.
Even if you think you know every possible real estate website out there, it’s always good to have a look at what buyers are looking at and to keep up on your digital competition...
It’s 3-bed/2-bath fabulous Victorian TIC in a 3-unit building. In-unit laundry, high-end kitchen with marble counters, island, wine refrigerator, built-in sub-zero refrigerator, wolf range/oven, small but nicely landscaped yard, small deck off the kitchen, fireplace, hardwood, wainscoting, fabulous moldings and original detail, etc. Asking $789,000. Partially assumable group TIC loan means that a buyer would need roughly $125,000 (~14%) down in order to close escrow and take over the $679,000 loan at 6.25% interest only. The monthly payment is ~3,550 and HOA is $200/mo. There is a private leased 1-car garage 2-blocks away for another $300/month. It’s one block to the Castro underground Muni station.
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I also spoke with Elizabeth Newlin, a Realtor with Century 21 in Arizona. Newlin’s approach to Twittering is much less direct. She uses the Tweets as a way of reminding friends and family she’s in the real estate business.
Rather than bang friends and family over the heads, she simply mentions what’s going on for her real estate wise.
Newlin said, “In real estate if there was any one thing that would be the end all be all, and get you as many clients as you wanted, then everybody would be doing it. In real estate you have to do a little bite of everything.”
Twitter is a way of working with early adopters and potential clients who see a tech savvy agent as a plus, she said. “There’s a certain market out there into really high tech thing and if you can show them that you’re up to par with your tech background they’re more likely to use you.”
Newlin says she understands that agents who fail to embrace technology will become road kill on the information super highway.
Users of Twitter understand the biggest downfall is you have to ask followers to sign up. While signing up is simple, most people don’t want to be bothered. So it’s up to you to convince clients Twitter is worth the time commitment.
Newlin has gotten some clients onboard, but still can’t convince her mother to sign up.
Even if you can’t convince mom to sign up, this is one of those moments where it costs you nothing to join. Plus, when someone asks if you Twitter you can say you do.
But the best reason for signing up as it was told to me, no real estate agent benefits from being a secret agent.
You can find me on Twitter at http://twitter.com/jeffhbrooks
Additional resources for readers interested in Twittering...
If you're looking for help setting up a Twitter page that includes branding it with your contact info, colors and logos, i know an excellent company that does the work for around $25... the company just started marketing online for the first time... they've done all of their work by word of mouth, but you can find samples of their work on the the site.... click here for Twitter Me Up...
If you're looking for help with using Twitter to find clients, I'd suggest contacting: digitalsocialists@gmail.com
If you have any questions, feel free to leave them in the comments section...
In an effort to further drive home my point that there are new and better marketing options out there, i.e. Twitter, I wanted to point out a story in the NY Times today that explains how useful Twitter can be when done right...
Twitter? It’s What You Make It
By DAVID POGUE
Writing can be solitary work, but not when you write a tech column. Feedback pours in so quickly — by e-mail, on blogs, in online comments — that it’s almost real-time performance art.
For the longest time, my readers kept nagging me to check out this thing called Twitter. I’d been avoiding it, because it sounded like yet another one of those trendy Internet time drains. E-mail, blogs, chat, RSS, Facebook. ... Who has time to tune in to yet another stream of Internet chatter?
True, there’s nothing quite like Twitter. It’s a Web site where you can broadcast very short messages — 140 characters, max — to anyone who’s signed up to receive them. It’s like a cross between a blog and a chat room. Your “followers” might include six friends from high school, or, if you’re Barack Obama, 254,484 of your most tech-savvy fans. (Incidentally, he hasn’t sent out a single Twitter message since taking office. Where are his priorities?)
Meanwhile, you sign up to receive the utterances of other people. Eventually, your screen fills with a scrolling display of their quips — jokes, recommended links, thoughts for the day, and a lot of “what I’m doing right now” stuff.
Even so, I was turned off by the whole ego thing. Your profile displays how many followers you have, as if it’s some kind of worthiness tally. (See also: Facebook friend counter.)
Then one day, I saw Twitter in action.
I was serving on a grant proposal committee, and I watched as a fellow judge asked his Twitter followers if a certain project had been tried before. In 15 seconds, his followers replied with Web links to the information he needed. No e-mail message, phone call or Web site could have achieved the same effect. (It’s only a matter of time before some “Who Wants to Be a Millionaire” contestant uses Twitter as one of his lifelines.)
So I signed up for a free account name (pogue) and stepped in.
It’s not easy to figure out what’s going on. Most people are supportive and happy to help you out. There is, however, such a thing as Twitter snobbery.
One guy took me to task for asking “dopey questions.” Others criticized me for various infractions, like not following enough other people, writing too much about nontech topics or sending too many or too few messages.
Determined to get the hang of it, I searched Google for “Twitter for beginners.” There were 927,000 search results.
All of this is a part of the social networking process. It’s what we do, and in essence, has replaced a part of the time we use to spend on the phone chatting with friends.
If you’re going to complain that social networking is too time consuming I can only say that’s the very nature of social networking. Things like Twitter, texting, blogging and Facebook have done nothing more than soak the time you use to spend on the phone. All of the aforementioned means of communications are easier, more pleasant and more convenient than the phone. There’s no needless chit chat and you can replay at your convenience. It’s really about saving time.
Twitter offers real-time communications. You tweet and followers can respond. It’s the instant back and forth that makes it useful.
Tricia Bautista of Los Casa Realty in Los Angeles doesn’t think there are a lot of people using Twitter right now, but where she puts Twitter into play is on her Facebook page where her friends and family can see what she’s up to.
She admits it took awhile to figure out a good use for Twitter, but now she’s found the niche for it via integrating it with Facebook. At first she said Twitter was just about talking to family, but then she realized Twitter was a better form of instant messaging. Bautista could Tweet about a new listing or something she saw on tour to her followers, and instantly answer any questions they might have. Over time she figured out how to post links to photos and her listings in the tweets so followers could click directly from her tweets. She described those links as “Check this out” tweets.
Bautista said she definitely see the potential down the line.
part III on Friday
Additional resources for readers interested in Twittering...
If you're looking for help setting up a Twitter page that includes branding it with your contact info, colors and logos, i know an excellent company that does the work for around $25... the company just started marketing online for the first time... they've done all of their work by word of mouth, but you can find samples of their work on the the site.... click here for Twitter Me Up...
If you're looking for help with using Twitter to find clients, I'd suggest contacting: digitalsocialists@gmail.com
If you have any questions, feel free to leave them in the comments section...
It's always nice to see a local company do well, especially when so much of the news is bad these days...
Trulia, the San Francisco based online real estate search company is reporting record traffic and growth this past year...
The reason is simple... they do a better job of marketing their services, their technology is simple to use, a better looking site and more useful information...
Real estate sites like Trulia see record traffic and revenue
Online real estate sites like Trulia.com, are reporting record traffic and revenues — even as most of the rest of the real estate industry is in the doldrums.
Trulia, based in San Francisco, says it hit record traffic levels in January, and users viewed 40 percent more pages per visit compared to a year ago.
In addition, the company plans to announce a co-branded web site with the Washington Post tomorrow that integrates Trulia’s search technology on the Washington Post’s local real estate content. Trulia will also offer its mapping and pricing information, as well as commenting, Q&As and other interactive features.
It’s yet another sign newspapers haven’t been able to figure out how to manage their once-lucrative classifieds offerings themselves. They’re dependent on startups like Trulia to do the work for them. The co-branded site should launch in April. Trulia ousts Homefinder.com, the Post’s previous real estate search vendor.
According to TechCrunch Redfin is no longer going at it alone... They're partnering up with local agents to help stay afloat... I know there are plenty of you out there that aren't fans of the Redfin's business model, but this is no time to gloat...
Here's what TechCrunch is reporting....
In a surprising move, online real estate brokerage Redfin is entering into partnerships with real estate agents from more than a dozen other brokerages in areas that Redfin’s in-house agents can’t reach. Redfin appears to have changed its tune from its founding when the firm wasn’t really getting along with real estate agents. In fact, Redfin seemed to be founded with the mission that consumers could avoid fees associated with hiring and using a real estate broker.
With the real estate market contracting and credit tightening, Redfin has been forced to reconsider its business model. It seems that these partnerships with real estate agents was necessary for Redfin to expand throughout the country without having to hire more agents. Redfin was previously limited to showing listings in the metropolitan areas of Seattle, San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, San Diego, Boston, Washington, and Chicago and will now be adding a presence in counties in Northern California, Illinois and Washington. Redfin laid off 20 percent of its staff in October of 2008 and reported slower revenue growth last year than in years before.
The firm is also hoping to make the real estate market more transparent by posting consumer reviews of in-house and partner real estate agents on its website. For every transaction completed by a partner agent, Redfin will earn a 30 percent referral fee (of the agent’s commission), but half of that fee is given back to the consumer. The returned fee to the customer averages around $1000 to $2000.
I know there are a lot of agents out there looking to keep on the cutting of technology and marketing. One of those tools is Twitter... You may or may not have heard of it... I recently wrote an article of a magazine talking about how agents could use the new service to find business and market themselves... Over the next few days I’m going to post the stories in sections...
Twittering Part 1
Twitter in case you haven’t heard of it is the technology of the moment, maybe even the year. It combines blogging with texting; sometimes referred to as microblogging.
Twitter, one of the newest online messaging services allows you to send 140 characters messages from either their website or your cell phones. It gives you the ability to send messages or Tweets as they are called to friends, clients of complete strangers who have signed up to follow you.
I can already here the moans in the crowd. “Not another flash in the pan social networking must have.” Twitter seems to be a bit more than a flash in the pan service.
Twitter is simple to use, doesn’t make any big promises and easily integrates into your Facebook page. And for me if you can add it to Facebook, it picks up a point of two in credibility.
You do need to sign up for Twitter which takes all of a minute, but anyone who wants to follow you has to the same. Meaning if you wants clients to follow you, they’ll need to convince them it’s worth the one minute investment in time.
There are plenty of well known companies and people using Twitter from the Los Angeles Fire Department to Barack Obama to Jet Blue Airlines. And even if you don’t have any followers or if you’re just looking to keep an eye on what others are doing, maybe even your competition, you simply search them out on Twitter and follow along. The same goes for people searching out others. For this column I searched Twitter for real estate agents. Who’s to say others won’t do the same when they go looking to buy or sell a home. Maybe Twitters users want an agent who Twitters as well.
additional resources for readers interested in Twittering...
If you're looking for help setting up a Twitter page that includes branding it with your contact info, colors and logos, i know an excellent company that does the work for around $25... the company just started marketing online for the first time... they've done all of their work by word of mouth, but you can find samples of their work on the the site.... click here for Twitter Me Up...
If you're looking for help with using Twitter to find clients, I'd suggest contacting: digitalsocialists@gmail.com
If you have any questions, feel free to leave them in the comments section...
The Wall Street Journal is once again pointing out the obvious... it's time for first time buyers to get into the market... The Journal points out it is beyond a buyer's market now...
For Some, It's Finally Time to Dive Into Housing Market
By MARY PILON
For years, even as her friends bought huge houses in the expensive Phoenix market, Elizabeth Child remained a renter.
But in January, the airline customer-service agent and her boyfriend closed on their first home. The three-bedroom, two-bath house, complete with granite countertops and a pool, had been listed for $340,000 in late 2007, but the couple bought it for $220,500. "Six months ago I didn't think I would own a home," says Ms. Child, 27 years old. "And now I do. It's so perfect."
The housing bust is creating a new group of winners: first-time home buyers. People who sat on the sidelines -- often watching wistfully as their friends became homeowners -- are suddenly in a position to grab some great deals. Indeed, first-time home buyers made up 41% of all buyers at the end of 2008, up from 36% in 2006, according to a recent survey from the National Association of Realtors.
The new buyers are being lured in by home prices that are down about 25% from their peak levels in mid-2006, according to the S&P/Case-Schiller Index. In some markets, prices have dropped even further -- slumping around 40% in Phoenix, Miami and Las Vegas. Lower mortgage rates have also helped make real estate more affordable, and as houses languish on the market longer, more homeowners are willing to negotiate. With Congress considering plans to sweeten a tax credit for first-time home buyers, the picture could get even brighter.
After nearly three months I finally got approved for my refi... The list of questions of was endless, the bank's concerns made little to no sense and their excuses for the delays were never explained... One mortgage person told me the problem was there were so few folks working in mortgage departments anymore, that when a rush of refi applications do come in, there's no one there to handle it... If anyone knows the truth, I'd love to hear it...
The Chronicle today talks about the other big mortgage issue besides the length of the approval process, jumbos vs conforming...
Larger mortgages still carry higher rates
Carolyn Said, Chronicle Staff Writer
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
Are jumbo conforming mortgages still second-class citizens?
That's a big question in the Bay Area, where real estate prices remain high relative to the rest of the country.
"If you have a mortgage between $417,000 and $625,500 (the range for jumbo conforming loans), you can't get a decent rate on it except for approximately one-half day out of every three weeks," said Dick Lepre, a loan agent at San Francisco's Residential Pacific Mortgage. "The problem is that we see extreme volatility, where the rate on these jumbo conformings changes massively, by almost a full percent, from one day to the next."
Bay Area homeowners trying to take advantage of historically low rates to refinance have found that the best rates are for mortgages of less than $417,000. Because many people here have larger mortgages, they may end up with monthly rates from 0.3 to one percentage point higher.
Jumbo conformings are the intermediate category of loans created last year when Congress rewrote some rules for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in an attempt to stimulate the moribund mortgage market. Conforming mortgages - the ones that Freddie and Fannie can buy, which means they carry lower rates because there is a guaranteed secondary market - used to be those less than $417,000. Starting last spring, in certain high-cost areas, including almost every inch of the Bay Area, Congress temporarily changed that limit to $729,750 through Dec. 31. As of Jan. 1, the limit changed again to $625,500 for this year.
The effect was to create three tiers of mortgages: True conforming loans under $417,000; an intermediate category called jumbo conforming or agency conforming between $417,000 and the upper limit, now at $625,500; and true jumbos, those more than $625,500. Congress' intent was to lower rates for loans below the new jumbo limits. That did happen, but the jumbo conformings still carry higher interest rates than the true conforming loans.
The reason is bound up with the complex ways in which mortgages are securitized - bundled up and sold. Under existing structure, pools of securitized mortgages can contain only 10 percent by dollar value of the jumbo conforming loans. Without a fully flourishing secondary market, these loans still end up priced higher.
"If you can only have 10 percent (jumbo conforming loans in a pool), that's not a true apples-to-apples comparison" with conforming loans, said Keith Gumbinger, vice president of New Jersey's HSH Associates, which reports on mortgage data.
click here for the complete story...
If you’re in the business of selling homes to tech savvy buyers, chances are when they hear about a new listing one of the first places they go is Google Maps... Why you ask?
Google now offers for a good part of the Bay Area a service they call Street View... It allows you to enter an address into Google Maps and check out the neighborhood from the street level... You can walk up and down the street checking out the neighbors as well as local businesses... Problem is Google probably isn’t going to be updating the view all that often... Meaning if they caught you listing on a bad day, you loose...
I found this photo of a new listing in Mill Valley on Google Street View this morning....
I got an email this morning for a deeded parking space in the City... Haven't seen a whole lot of folks selling those of late... I figure it's probably a great option if you lose the house... A lifetime of parking for a mere $65,000...
My favorite part of the email is that it's a FULL size space... Not one of those crummy compact spaces people are always selling at a discount...
88 Townsend St #P138, San Francisco, CA
Deeded parking space for 1 car/truck. Secure controlled access to enter and exit. Perfect addition for those parking challenged buildings in San Francisco. This is a one car parking space located in a new residential/commercial building just one block from the AT&T Ballpark and in the heart of South Beach.
Contact McGuire Real Estate for more information...
Enticed by tumbling housing prices, more Americans signed contracts to buy homes in December despite widespread concerns about the economy, an industry group reported on Tuesday.
The National Association of Realtors said that pending home sales rose 6.3 percent in December from a month earlier, with strong gains in the South and Midwest. The number of pending home sales — those in which a buyer has signed a contract but not closed — were up 2.1 percent from December 2007.
“We’ve got some up-turns that are encouraging to us,” said Jed Smith, director for quantitative research of the Realtors’ group. “It’s the direction we like to see.”
But economists cautioned that December could prove to be nothing more than a bump in real-estate’s long slide.
“They rebounded from an all-time low, so the level is still low,” said Patrick Newport, United States economist at IHS Global Insight. “Sales are going to continue sliding because the recession is intensifying. Banks have tightened credit since last year, and they’re not easing up.”
The number of pending sales for 2008 was down 9.5 percent from 2007 — a sign of the toll that the tight credit markets had inflicted on the flagging housing market. The Commerce Department reported that new-home sales in December fell to an annual rate of 331,000, their lowest point on record.
click here for the complete NY Times story...
Sitting on top of the world or San Francisco’s tallest residential building just a a little bit cheaper.
The announcement on the website proclaims, “Millennium Tower announces a limited time price adjustment.”
The good news for those who bought, you’re also getting money back...
From the website
“There is no better time or opportunity to buy at Millennium Tower, a unique property that builds on Millennium Partners' legacy of creating premiere luxury living residences throughout the country. Many people have seen the earliest promise of Millennium Tower. To them, we say thank you. And to those who wish to join us, we welcome you with this exclusive limited-time opportunity, free of stressful negotiation.
To protect the investment of our owners and adjust to current market conditions, Millennium Partners has determined that we will provide a 15% price adjustment to our current buyers, and for a limited time, to our future buyers.”
The one line that struck me as strange was you could now buy, “free of stressful negotiation” Why was it stressful in the first place? Are you mean to your potential buyers? Maybe that’s why you can’t sell out....
The building’s management told Bloomberg news, “We believe it’s the right thing to do,” Richard Baumert, managing director of New York-based developer Millennium Partners LLC, said in an interview. “It’s the price we ask in the marketplace today.”
Bloomberg reports the buildings owners will refund 15 percent of the $22.5 million in deposits, and the buyer of the building’s penthouse is due a $1.65 million refund...
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As if you didn't already know this was coming, but homes sales aren't going so well... shocked I know...
here's how the folks at Bloomberg news saw it...
By Bob Willis
Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of new homes in the U.S. fell in December to the lowest level on record, creating an unprecedented glut of unsold properties that casts doubt on any recovery in the industry this year.
Purchases dropped to an annual pace of 331,000, lower than all 70 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey, Commerce Department figures showed in Washington. Other reports today said orders for durable goods slumped for a fifth month and a record number of Americans were collecting jobless benefits.
The collapse in demand for homes means builders are still constructing a surplus of properties, and signals more pressure on prices. The intensifying crisis will make it harder for President Barack Obama to arrest the industry’s decline with proposed tax breaks and steps to slow mortgage foreclosures.
“Builders are slashing production, but it’s difficult for them to keep up with sales that are falling so fast,” said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight, in Lexington, Massachusetts, who at 345,000 had the lowest estimate of economists surveyed. “New homes are getting cheaper, but you can’t get credit so you can’t buy.”
The Standard & Poor’s Homebuilder Composite Index was down 4.5 percent to 199.63 at 11:08 a.m. New York time. Treasuries fell, with yields on 10-year notes climbing to 2.68 percent from 2.66 percent yesterday.
Unadjusted for seasonal patterns, only 23,000 Americans bought new homes last month, with just 2,000 purchases in the Northeast region.
It's a short story with a an audio link to the story... bottom line, in the past six month, 19,000 agents gave up their licenses...
SAN FRANCISCO (KCBS) -- The bursting bubble that is the California real estate market is taking the careers of thousands of realtors and mortgage brokers with it. Unemployment in that field is way up, and so is the number of complaints against shady companies.
In just six months, 19,000 Californians have let their real estate licenses lapse, according to Tom Pool at the state Department of Real Estate.
"The number of licensees is dropping rather significantly and I think that's really a product of the market," said Pool.
That includes mortgage brokers, realtors, and property managers. Pool also says there are more and more consumer complaints against mortgage companies. Instead of about a dozen open investigations, his agency has almost 300 right now, mostly against loan modification firms.
"Companies are jumping into the business and collecting advance fees, but not providing any services for the fee that was collected," said Pool.
Of course, with state budget cuts, the Department of Real Estate doesn't have enough investigators.
"So what we've done internally is shift more of those available resources from subdivisions such as licensing, into enforcement," said Pool.
I found this note in my email last night, and in keeping with tradition I'm printing it in it's entirety... Larry Knapp, the President of Alain Pinel Realtors wanted to add a few words to the ongoing Pacific Union story...
Dear San Francisco Real Estate Blog (I added that),
I’ve been watching your blog with interest from the sidelines. I see that sometimes people write directly to the blog and other times you put in a word. As far as I know no one has been sending you the names of the people who have joined Alain Pinel Realtors from Pacific Union. At this writing we have about 70 agents who have joined us in our Central Marin and Novato offices. That’s not too bad considering we haven’t even had an office for these people to work from until this coming Friday. These folks, of course, have been featured in the newspaper these past couple of weeks.
But what I think is worthy of note is what’s happening in Sonoma . Not sure if you’re aware but Nicki Naylor and several of the key people in that office have joined us. Nicki, who was the #1 agent in Pacific Union in 2008, came on board on Friday. While our initial plans did not focus on Sonoma we’ve had such a great reception in Marin that we’ve decided to expand in to Sonoma as well, and with Nicki and the other agents joining we’re off to a good start.
Please feel free to contact me if you ever have any questions or want any clarifications on things you are hearing.
LOS ANGELES (Jan. 27) – Home sales increased 84.9 percent in December in California compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home fell 41.5 percent, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported today.
“Sales continue to be strong, exceeding 500,000 units for the fourth consecutive month, and year-to-date sales are nearly 27 percent above last year,” said C.A.R. President James Liptak. “California home buyers benefited during the last half of 2008 from the high-cost loan limit of $729,750, which fell to $625,500 as of Jan. 1. The restoration of the high cost loan limit to the previous level would not only help a housing market still struggling to turn around, but also make financing more affordable for home buyers.”
Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled 544,580 in December at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations statewide. Statewide home resale activity increased 84.9 percent from the revised 294,520 sales pace recorded in December 2007. Sales in December 2008 increased 5.9 percent compared with the previous month.
The statewide sales figure represents what the total number of homes sold during 2008 would be if sales maintained the December pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.
The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during December 2008 was $281,100, a 41.5 percent decrease from the revised $480,820 median for December 2007, C.A.R. reported. The December 2008 median price fell 2 percent compared with November’s revised $286,850 median price.
“Median prices continued to decline in December, and based on preliminary calculations, the statewide annual median price declined 38 percent for all of 2008 compared with 2007,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “While the month-to-month decrease in December was considerably smaller than in recent months, it remains too early to determine if prices are beginning to stabilize. Many distressed sales still must work their way through the system.
“The decline in home prices has brought the cost of housing more in line with household income, improving affordability across the state,” she said. “This should be especially helpful for first-time buyers who can qualify for a home loan.”
Highlights of C.A.R.’s resale housing figures for December 2008:
C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes in December 2008 was 5.6 months, compared with 13.4 months (revised) for the same period a year ago. The index indicates the number of months needed to deplete the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate.
Thirty-year fixed-mortgage interest rates averaged 5.29 percent during December 2008, compared with 6.10 percent in December 2007, according to Freddie Mac. Adjustable-mortgage interest rates averaged 4.97 percent in December 2008, compared with 5.50 percent in December 2007.
The median number of days it took to sell a single-family home was 46.1 days in December 2008, compared with 66.7 days (revised) for the same period a year ago.
The monthly announcement from the good folks at Standard & Poor’s brings no surprises... According the to S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices home prices continue their slide here in the Bay Area, down nearly 31 percent over the past 12 months... Down a mere 3 percent from October to November...
Leading the slide is Las Vegas at 31.6 percent over the past 12 months... Clearly not a lot of good news here, but reality is prices are now back to 2002 levels... Allowing all those out there who were so fond of saying, “I wish I had bought five years ago,” the chance to do so...
A few more agents have decided to change offices as a result of the changes at Pacific Union...
They include: Fiona Rogers, Lida Burval, Robert Craig, Jennifer Lee and Lydia Treadway
It's going to be a way of life for a while... record home sales, huge price slumps and record low mortgage rates... but honestly it's a start...
Jan. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. unexpectedly rose from a record low, propelled by the biggest slump in prices since the Great Depression as foreclosures surged.
Purchases rose 6.5 percent to an annual rate of 4.74 million from 4.45 million in November that was less than previously estimated, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The median price dropped 15 percent from a year ago, the biggest decline since records began in 1968 and probably the biggest in seven decades, according to the group.
“You have to put it in the context of an even steeper decline for the previous month,” said David Sloan, a senior economist at 4Cast Inc. in New York, who had the highest projection in the Bloomberg News survey. “The net trend is still negative. It does seem that some cheap prices are attracting buyers. I don’t think it’s a clear sign of a revival in the housing market. The housing market is very weak.”
The housing slump at the center of the global credit crisis and economic downturn is likely to persist well into 2009, hurting companies such as Home Depot Inc. President Barack Obama has pledged to stem foreclosures and boost job creation to break the longest recession in a quarter century.
The index of leading economic indicators unexpectedly increased in December as the money supply expanded, a report from the Conference Board, a New York-based research group, showed today. The 0.3 percent increase was the first gain in six months and masked signs of a worsening recession. The index points to the direction of the economy over the next three to six months.
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This rare 3 bedroom / 2 bath, charming knock-out remodeled home is situated in a great location in Lower Bret Harte Village. Amazing use of space, care, and attention to detail has been the focus of this great remodel. This has that sought-after Pottery Barn look that everyone is looking for.
For additional information contact:
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Morgan Lane Marin
415-235-6263
http://.connieirwin.com
This is the way things are suppose to work... I know the prices of homes has come down, but the number of homes sold is going up, way up.... Up nearly 20 percent from November... And traditionally December is not the best month for home sales... Sure prices are down, but this what has to happen first before things can get better... I say to you, "this is all good news"
Remember homes are selling... isn't this what we were all waiting for?
San Francisco December home sales jump as prices fall
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - San Francisco area home sales in December rose 19.7 percent from November and 36.0 percent from a year earlier as bargain hunters took advantage of falling home prices during a persistent national housing slump, MDA DataQuick said in a report released on Wednesday.
The real estate research firm said the nine-county region's median home price fell to $330,000, down 5.7 percent from November and 43.8 percent from a year earlier, to its lowest since March 2000 and off 50.4 percent from its mid-2007 peak of $665,000.
A total of 6,889 new and resale houses and condominiums were sold in the region in December, below the monthly average since 1988 of 8,807 but above record low levels of late 2007 and the first half of last year, MDA DataQuick said.
"Bargain hunting" dominated the San Francisco region's housing market last month, with purchases of foreclosure properties accounting for more than half of all resales for the first time, according to MDA DataQuick.
For those of you out there who rent and have been wondering about the joys of supply and demand, it appears your time has arrived... According to sfgate.com, the price of rent is finally catching up with the lack of demand....
Bay Area apartment rents fall 1st time in years
The charging bull that long characterized the rental market is finally out of breath.
Bay Area rents succumbed to growing economic pressures during the fourth quarter, dipping for the first time in years and upending the balance of power between tenants and landlords, according to a report by Novato research firm RealFacts Inc.
Apartment prices have climbed inexorably since 2004, stubbornly defying the broader residential real estate downturn that began three years ago. In fact, as the housing market tanked, it sent foreclosed owners back to apartment living and eliminated financing options for would-be buyers, pushing up rental rates quarter after quarter.
During the last three months of 2008, however, the streak ended. In the San Francisco metropolitan area (Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco and San Mateo counties), the average rent stood at $1,624, down 0.8 percent from the prior quarter, as occupancy fell 0.7 percent to 95.4 percent.
I'll be the first to admit it, I've Googled myself... Not in public of course....
So where can buyers, sellers and agents go to find specific details about themselves.... Homethinking . The site offers to search by town the names of agents who have sold there and the successes they've had in that particular town or city. I remember when the site first come on the pickings were pretty slim, but from looking at the website's traffic, it might be worth seeing where you stand with users. On an average month 65,000 potential clients will hit the site.
I clearly need to spend sometime digging around the latest round of housing data, but the folks at Reuters News Service were fast to find this bit of good news... Granted prices are down, but sales are up... and as well all know, until the excess inventory is off the market, things aren't going anywhere...
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - December home sales in Southern California jumped 50.5 percent from the year earlier, but the median price fell 34.6 percent to $278,000 as shoppers snapped up foreclosed properties, MDA DataQuick said on Monday.
The area's median price, which reflects the midpoint of sale prices, hit $505,000 in mid-2007, DataQuick said.
A total of 19,926 new and resale homes and condominiums sold last month in the six-county region that is the most heavily populated area in the state of California.
The area, including such cities as Los Angeles, San Diego and Riverside, recorded 13,240 sales during December 2007.
The median price paid for homes sold in Southern California hit $278,000 in December, down from $425,000 in December 2007.
DataQuick said the drop in the median price "overstates the decline in home values" since more affordable homes in the foreclosure-hit inland markets accounted for a large portion of sales.
This just in from Noe Valley. A 2 bed, 1 bath condo- perfect for married couples and small families. The condo includes a private deck – perfect for warm SF evenings. And there’s a fireplace that comes in handy when it’s cold outside and all you want to do is cozy up with a good book. Also, the open kitchen is covered with granite counters and furnished with cherry wood cabinets, great for entertaining guests and loved ones. There’s an open house this weekend so come by and have a look!
I like your blog. I especially like the snoopy drawing. Did you do that yourself?
Not all the Pacific Union agents are going to Alain Pinel. I have interviewed 3 of them within the last few days who are considering moving to my brokerage and have more that have told me they are "waiting until the dust settles." then they will start looking at options.
My brokerage, Bradley Real Estate has grown from 12 Marin agents to 280 agents in 7 years. Most of that growth has happened in the last 3 years. We opened 4 offices in a little over a year. Most of our agents have moved from Frank Howard Allen, Coldwell Banker, Pacific Union, Prudential and other brokerages.
We have 8 offices in Marin. We also are gaining market share rapidly. I will forward you another email with some interesting stats for current dollar volume in escrow in Marin.
Just for the record since we don't know each other yet.. I am 37 and I was born in Marin County. I started selling real estate when I was 22.
I am about to head into my sales meeting, so I will check back later. Thank you!
Just got an email update from a new Alain Pinel agent...
Here's what they had to say...
"As one of the 50 agents to leave Pacific Union I'm happy with the speed at which Alain Pinel Real Estate is moving to secure new locations and train us on their technology. Overall, spirits are good."
Just off the phone with a very optimistic and upbeat Craig Silvestri. As the new face of Alain Pinel Real Estate here in Marin he could not be more excited about what's going on.
Silvestri said the whole process very much feels like a start-up. He has a lot to do over the next few days including finding temporary office space for new agents.
As of this morning, somewhere between 50-55 agents have made the switch to his firm, the bulk of them coming from Pacific Union. But Silverstri said that number is changing by the hour.
So where will everyone be working? Silverstri said other than the new office in Novato, he expects to open offices in Larkspur and Mill Valley.
I have been promised by a number of folks today several big announcements in connection with the Pacific Union death watch...
As the news rolls in, I'll post it here first... if you have any tips or suggestions, feel free to drop me a note... i can be reached at: alainunion@yahoo.com
A sigh of relief.... After hearing the pitch from Alain Pinel Tuesday afternoon, Nan Allen announced she was, "unimpressed" and staying with Pacific Union...
If you need further proof of Alain Pinel's arrival in Marin, agents reported to me the first Alain Pinel business cards in the wild... Agents touring in Marin today saw temporary cards with the names of new agents handwritten on the front...
I just learned one of the biggest names at Pacific Union is changing shops... I've been told I'll have to wait 48 hours before I can release their name, but this one is going to hurt...
The departing star said the firing of Steve Dickason was the final straw... They also told me they expect the entire Greenbrae office of Pacific Union will follow Dickason.
I just got a call from a Frank Howard Allen agent who tells me for years Alain Pinel and Frank Howard Allen had an arrangement where they would trade Marin referrals for East Bay referrals and East Bay referals for Marin referals.
The agent tells me the word came down that FHA management was not happy with the idea that their one time trading partner would sudden come into Marin and start poaching their clients directly...
I'm not sure much could be done... One broker suggested, or hinted that if there was something in writing they might be able to after Alain Pinel for breach of contract...
This is the first time I'm hearing any of this, so if anyone knows more, please feel free to leave thoughts in the comments section...
According to folks in the know, an estimated 50 agents will make the jump to Alain Pinel. I don’t know for sure they’re all Pacific Union agents, but the number seems solid.
Offices from what I’ve been told will be set up in Larkspur Landing... Only temporary space for now...
Sources are now telling me former Pacific Union super star Sheila Levine is under consideration to replace legendary manager Steve Dickason. Levine who recently retired from Pacific Union was described by one agent as, “addicted [to real estate]. It’s in her blood... She still tours.”
An agent I spoke with said bringing Levine back would be, “The smartest thing they [Pacific Union] could do to stem the flood of agents defecting.”
Another source confirms that Dickason was in fact fired, but not for refusing to cut budget rather for a minor infraction. They described the infraction as a negative five on a scale of one to ten. “But that’s how corporate works” they said.
I’ve been told the Dickason firing comes on the heels of Pacific Unions decision to also let go of their Sonoma County manager.
So the question that begs to be answered, why all the blood letting?
One source with connection deep within Pacific Union tells me they fear the real estate brokerage might be once again be for sale and this is an effort by the current management “to shore up the books.”
I'm now hearing the Pacific Union agents will be meeting with management this afternoon at Spinnaker Restaurant in Sausalito... I'm expecting reports back shortly there after... I'll update as I hear more...
And as always, feel free to leave any thoughts you have in the comments section
Sources are now telling me Lindy Emrich, a top ten producer in Marin announced this morning at the Marin Assocation of Realtors she'll be leaving Pacific Union to join Steve Dickason at Alain Pinel... I'm expecting more details this afternoon about this and other potential defections... as always feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments section... all comments can be made anonymously
Just about everyone I’ve spoken to, or exchanged emails with tells me this is Pacific Union’s swan song.
While not everyone agrees that Pacific Union is on life support YET, the signs are there.
I’ve been told by reliable sources that both Pacific Union and Alain Pinel are holding meetings today to explain what the companies see as their futures.
While clearly Pinel will be offering a happier version of the future, Pacific Union now finds itself in damage control mode...
Pacific Union agents attending today’s meetings will be asking what the future holds for them and what the new management structure will be.
Those i’ve spoke with tell me the most likely candidate to head up Pacific Union’s operations in Marin will be the current manager of operations in Mill Valley. Multiple sources I’ve spoken to tell me his limited experience makes him a poor candidate for the job.
A source who attended a gathering of agents last night told me the fear at Pacific Union was that when Steve Dickason got FIRED, yes multiple sources are now telling me he didn’t walk away, but was in fact fired, that he would take the best agents with him.
To be very honest, the flight from Pacific Union started just days ago when top producer Marilyn Rich left for the boutique firm Morgan Lane. Rich was a top 5 producer annually for the now fading Pacific Union.
Sources tell me Dickason’s firing was over budget cuts. Corporate was asking for a million dollars in savings and Dickason refused... Dickason, is described as the best manager in the Bay Area, with some even calling him a legend.
The Pinal meetings which I’ve been told will take place on the Marin side of the bridge is to let potential agents know what Pinal now has to offer agents willing to jump ship.
One agent said to me you would have to be, “crazy” to stick with Pacific Union.
If you have any news or updates, feel free to drop me a note or post what you know in the comments section.
Let me begin by saying what I’m reporting here will probably in the end turn out to be more rumor than fact, but here’s how it goes..
The information comes from a group of over excited agents with a dislike for Pacific Union...
The story goes like this... The manager of Pacific Union’s Marin operations, Steve Dickason (no longer on the Pacific Union website) has called it quits. Dickason was Pacific Union’s Marin County manager and is reported to have left Pacific Union for greener pastures along with Craig Silvestri, Pacific Union’s sales manager for central Marin. The rumored greener pastures in this case would be the reported opening of an Alain Pinel office in Marin.
The Alain Pinel website does say they’re opening three new offices in Marin, but makes no mention of locations.... The only descriptions given are central, northern and southern Marin.
Along with the rumors comes the report of the pending death of Pacific Union. This has been described as the final straw for the long time brokerage. Keep in mind all this is just rumors flying through the mill, but some of the facts are lining up.
The rumors are flying fast and furious, so if you know anything, please feel free to leave what you know in the comments section. No need to leave your name.
Here’s a gorgeous studio just listed not too long ago in SF. It’s right along the Embarcadero, which is great for morning or evening walks. The Financial District is a brief walk away and it’s super close to all the great shopping downtown has to offer. This is a great pad for bachelor’s or bachelorette’s. And, if you’re not a great chef, there’s plenty of yummy eateries around. Just listed at 400k!
Harold "Hal" A. Ellis Jr., a founder of real estate services firm Grubb & Ellis Co. and one of the best known figures in U.S. real estate, died Monday of metastatic melanoma at his home in Piedmont, Calif. He was 77.
Ellis built a small Oakland brokerage into a powerhouse whose circular yellow and black signs dot thousands of stores, offices, factories and other commercial properties for sale or lease across the country.
He lost control of Grubb & Ellis, now headquartered in Santa Ana, in 1992 but went on to found two more real estate companies. At his death he was the chairman of Ellis Partners, a San Francisco investment and development firm working on a $400-million expansion of Jack London Square in Oakland that will add a hotel, stores and restaurants to the historic waterfront site
He was also chairman and chief executive of CataList Homes Inc., a Hermosa Beach-based residential real estate brokerage he helped launch in 2001. The company challenged traditional brokers by putting local housing price data online that had previously been for brokers only and charged lower commission fees.
"Hal has always been thinking of the next big thing," said Michael Davin, president of CataList. "He wanted to use technology to advance an old-school business."
Ellis was born in Portland, Ore., on Aug. 4, 1931, the youngest of Harold and Bertha Ellis' four children. The family moved to Oakland two years later.
Ellis went on to attend UC Berkeley, playing football under coach Lynn "Pappy" Waldorf in 1951 and 1952. He served as president of the Phi Delta Theta fraternity and went on to earn a graduate degree in business from Stanford University.
Reports out today say San Francisco office vacancies are the highest since dot-com crash. I have no reason to doubt any of the repoorts, but looking back we all know we'll survive this one too...
SAN FRANCISCO-The Downtown San Francisco office market posted its worst occupancy losses in more than seven years, according to a year-end report by CB Richard Ellis. Negative net absorption in the Downtown market in the fourth quarter totaled 1.4 million square feet--its highest level since the dot-com crash--and total availability grew by 1.7 million square feet, pushing the Financial District’s direct vacancy rate up 240 basis points to 12.6% and the overall availability rate, which includes sublease space, to 16.2%. Citywide direct vacancy jumped 220 basis points to 12.6%, matching the Financial District, while overall availability jumped 210 basis points to 18.3%.
The rapid increase in the availability rate--up nearly 65% from 11.1% in 2Q '07--has owners lowering their asking rates, which is pushing negotiated rates down even further. Owners of CBD class A properties dropped their asking rates by 7.7% during the quarter to $43.03, the steepest quarterly decline in more than five years, according to CBRE. “The delta between asking and signing rates appears to have widened further as owners trade lower rents for the stability of longer-term occupancy,” states the report.
Indeed, a late December report by Colliers International based on 93 fourth quarter deals in the Financial District found that the weighted average class A office rent had fallen 26.4% to $41.34 per square foot per year, down from $56.17 in the third quarter and $53.14 in the fourth quarter of 2007.
Just walking past the fax machine when I found a fax from a mortgage company offering stated income home loans for folks with 350 FICO scores.... sure rates started at 9.99 percent, but I think this is how the housing/bad economy problem got started...
If you're interested, give the good people at PacShores Mortgage Inc. a call...
I'm going to suggest you DON'T Google them, the Phishing tool in my Firefox browser would NOT allow me to click on their site... see photo above
A couple great surveys out today... Call it Yahoo’s best & worst of lists...
America's most and least favorite cities to habitat in is New York, taking number one in both categories... I understand how it happens, but always a credibility killer for me....
Most favorite cities...
1. New York
2. San Diego
3. San Francisco - described this way
Rank: 3
Workers who would like to move there: 9%
Median household income: $68,023
Median home value: $766,985
Annual home price change: -5.5%
San Francisco is one of the most beautiful cities in the world (it's also one of the most expensive). It's a progressive city with a vibrant economy, a vibrant arts and cultural scene, and a busy seaport. The University of California, San Francisco is one of the nation's top medical colleges. The city has become a biotech and technology center like neighboring Silicon Valley. The city's top attributes, according to the survey, were the environment (climate, parks, natural features, etc.), entertainment options, residents' background, talents and perspectives, and professional/personal opportunities. For the complete list click here...
If you click on the link above, Yahoo will offer a few other real estate related lists as well... It's worth click
For those of you in line to refinance your mortgage or in the process of getting a new one, I can offer you this one piece of advice, start now.
About a month ago I started the refi process and was updated yesterday that it might be awhile...
I can promise you there’s nothing special about my refi... Credit scores in the 800’s, no debt and my LTV is 50 percent...
According to the mortgage folks there’s no one to do the paperwork... After the last big round of layoffs so many folks were let go, when the time came crank things up again they had no one in the office anymore...
So rather then come out an admit to it, the mortgage people just keep coming up with more paperwork for me to fill out...
I’ve also heard the appraisal is only good as long as the appraiser is in the house... It’s a joke...
Love to hear what others are dealing with in the mortgage runaround... And if you’re in the mortgage business, what’s your side of the story...
Sometimes it seems to me one of the biggest roles an agent has to is help folks understand the business of real estate. These days though the questions are coming from all over the place. No longer are they just about the schools or mortgages but rather foreclosures and short sales.
The LA Times has a nice piece explaining tenant rights when the landlord fails to pay the bills...
always remember, renters are often the next buyers...
Advice for renters if landlord faces foreclosure
You're paying your bills, but your landlord isn't. And you're the one holding the eviction notice.
This is becoming an all-too-familiar scenario for thousands of renters nationwide who have become the unintended victims of foreclosures. Banks are booting good tenants onto the streets with little to no notice after seizing a property from a delinquent owner, ignoring tenant leases.
In the most troubling cases, families are forced into shelters for temporary housing because they have little savings to cover moving costs, first month's rent and a security deposit at another apartment.
Fannie Mae has pledged to change that with its new renter policy starting this month. The plan will allow renters living in foreclosed properties to sign new leases with Fannie while the property is up for sale, or give the tenants money to move. Fannie has yet to establish the length of the leases, and the amount of move-out assistance will vary by state and property.
Freddie Mac said it would unveil a similar program in a few weeks.
But how does a renter know if his landlord has a mortgage held by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac? Worse yet, what about renters of landlords who don't?
Fannie Mae plans to reach out to tenants, spokesman Brian Faith said.
"Most tenants don't normally know the details of their landlord's mortgage arrangements, but we'll be contacting the tenants in foreclosed properties we own to make them aware of the option to stay in their home through a lease with Fannie Mae," he said.
The details of Freddie Mac's tenant plan are still unavailable.
The pair own or guarantee about half of the $11.5 trillion in U.S. outstanding home loan debt. Fannie estimates about 4,000 tenants live in the company's foreclosed properties and would be eligible for the plan.
Unfortunately, that's just a fraction of renters facing the consequences of a landlord's foreclosure. Renters in large complexes are probably safe because multifamily loan delinquencies are still very low. But 15 million renters, or about 40% of all renters, live in single-family homes, many of which are owned by mom-and-pop investor landlords. This is where the risk lies.
What should you do if you receive a foreclosure or eviction notice?
Phoenix-proper, nearby Scottsdale and Chandler, Ariz. were the nation's hottest markets in 2008 for prospective homebuyers, according to a recent survey of most-searched ZIP codes in 35 U.S. markets served by popular online search and brokerage site ZipRealty . Overall, five of the top-ten most searched neighborhoods were in Phoenix and the surrounding areas.
In a volatile year for the housing market, ZipRealty's data analysts surveyed the most searched homebuyer markets across its extensive database and identified those most popular to consumers. In addition to Phoenix, others in the top-ten included: Irvine and Huntington Beach, Calif. (both in Orange County), Summerlin and Henderson (both suburbs of Las Vegas), and Atlanta-proper. See below for full list.
Most Searched ZIP Codes in ZipRealty's 35 Markets
1. Phoenix - Phoenix
2. Phoenix - Scottsdale
3. Phoenix - Chandler
4. Orange County - Irvine
5. Las Vegas - Summerlin
6. Phoenix - Mesa
7. Orlando - Orlando
8. Phoenix - Gilbert
9. Atlanta - Atlanta
10. Las Vegas - Henderson - Green Valley
ZipRealty also identified the most popular areas among the site's top ten metro markets. For San Francisco Bay Area, the bedroom community of Fremont topped the list, while in Los Angeles, Santa Monica was most popular. Newton grabbed the top spot in Boston, and Irvine again made the list for Orange County. Here is the full list:
Most Popular Community Searches in Top Ten Metropolitan Areas
1. San Francisco - Fremont
2. Los Angeles - Santa Monica
3. Boston - Newton
4. Orange County - Irvine
5. San Diego - Chula Vista
6. Miami - Fort Lauderdale
7. Seattle - Bellevue
8. Dallas - Dallas
9. Chicago - Naperville
10. New York - Manhattan
"Even with the slowdown in home sales, it's important to remember how many people are still looking, and this survey provides a snapshot as to where they were looking in 2008," explained CEO Pat Lashinsky. "As we move in to 2009, ZipRealty will continue to provide the most accurate information and tools to help home buyers and sellers, and make the process as transparent and easy as possible."
Today would be one of those days where being number isn't so special...
Home prices are out for the top twenty home markets and taking its place atop the leader board is Phoenix where prices are down nearly 33% for the year, Las Vegas nearly 32% and the City by the Bay 31%...
Here's how Reuters News Service put it..
NEW YORK, Dec 30 (Reuters) - Prices of U.S. single-family homes in October plunged a record 18.0 percent from a year earlier, according to the Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices released on Tuesday that indicated a U.S. housing market in the throes of a deep recession.
The battered U.S. housing market is critical to the U.S. economy, with a wide-ranging impact from the construction industry to the sale of appliances and furniture. After hurting economic growth for multiple quarters, a continued deterioration could prolong a turnaround for the world's largest economy, which has been in a recession since late last year.
The composite index of 20 metropolitan areas fell 2.2 percent in October from September. The price drops, both on a year-over-year and month-over-month basis, came in worse than expectations based on a Reuters survey of economists.
S&P said its composite index of 10 metropolitan areas declined 2.1 percent in October from September for a 19.1 percent year-over-year drop, also a record.
"The bear market continues; home prices are back to their March, 2004 levels." David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's, said in a statement.
As of October 2008, the 10-City Composite Home Price Index is down 25.0 percent from its mid-2006 peak, and the 20-City Composite Home Price Index is down 23.4 percent, he said.
The U.S. housing market is in the worst downturn since the Great Depression as a huge supply of unsold homes, tighter lending standards and record foreclosures push down home prices.
Over the years it's safe to say I've lost every pet deposit I ever had... Most of the time going into the deal I knew the landlord had no plans to return it...
The NY Times has a great story out over the problems pets and tenants... An all to familiar story for many of us...
The UnDog and the NonCat
In a city awash in creature comforts for those who can still afford them, a few remain unattainable at any price. Some New Yorkers who yearn for the comfort of creatures — specifically, cats and dogs — find themselves stymied by their apartment buildings’ restrictions on pets.
But just as city dwellers are accustomed to settling when it comes to real estate, many aspiring cat and dog owners turn to other species to satisfy their yen for a cuddle, companionship or wish to convey childhood lessons in responsibility.
A partial list of things that slither, hop, glide, swim or scurry beyond the purview of co-op boards, landlords and occasionally, the law, includes chinchillas, parrots, bearded dragons, tortoises, pythons, fancy mice, monkeys and ferrets, along with a more pedestrian assortment of gerbils, guinea pigs and goldfish.
Many owners of these creatures swear that their offbeat choices have turned out to be nearly as satisfying as a dog or a cat.
Consider Pounce, the free-range rabbit sharing a two-bedroom apartment with Jennifer Edwards, Jim Gaherty and their sons, Dylan, 13, and Liam, 10.
Before Pounce arrived last April in their Upper West Side no-dogs-allowed co-op, the family had owned beta fish and gerbils.
“The big problem with any of those is cleaning the cages and tanks, and when there’s no payoff, it’s kind of a drag,” said Ms. Edwards, 44, a health care policy consultant whose allergy to cats ruled out a feline solution to the family’s desire for a more interactive pet.
The S&P/Case-Shiller index of home prices is due out and I can promise you the moans will be audible from one end of the City to the other.
No one is expecting the numbers to show anything other than a continuing downward slide...
Excuses for the downward trend will include tightening credit markets, unemployment and foreclosures...
But the one possible bit of good news, Tuesday's bad news will probably put more pressure on the incoming President to come to the rescue of homeowners.
Check out this newly listed Single Family home in Golden Gate Heights! Living room and dining room has wonderful views of Mt. Sutro, forest hillsides and Ocean beach. How awesome is that?! And just in time for the holidays! Fireworks within distance! Home includes 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath on main level and 1 bedroom and half bath on the lower level. Recently remodeled with hardwood floors and new paint. Also includes a one car garage with plenty of storage space and a spacious backyard for entertaining. Get it in time to ring in the 2009!
These numbers just out from the California Association of Realtors...
C.A.R. reports sales increased 83.2 percent; median home price fell 41.8 percent in November
Home sales increased 83.2 percent in November in California compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home fell 41.8 percent, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported today.
“Statewide sales registered a monthly decline for the first time since the first quarter of this year, reacting in part to the worsening situation in the economy, the financial sector, and in terms of consumer and business confidence,” said C.A.R. President James Liptak. “Despite the month-over-month decline, sales were above the 500,000 home level for the third consecutive month. Sales are now 102 percent above the monthly trough for this cycle, which occurred a year ago in September and October, and are 22.3 percent above sales in 2007 in year-to-date terms.”
Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled 514,710 in November at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations statewide. Statewide home resale activity increased 83.2 percent from the revised 280,920 sales pace recorded in November 2007. Sales in November 2008 decreased 6.9 percent compared with the previous month.
The statewide sales figure represents what the total number of homes sold during 2008 would be if sales maintained the November pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.
The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during November 2008 was $285,680, a 41.8 percent decrease from the revised $490,511 median for November 2007, C.A.R. reported. The November 2008 median price fell 5.3 percent compared with October’s revised $301,740 median price.
“The statewide median dropped below $300,000 for the first time since early 2002,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “Median prices declined across all regions of the state in year-year terms, with the largest declines occurring in areas with higher concentrations of distressed sales.”
Sellers are once again asking the age old question whether or not to leave their homes on the market over the holidays... A lot of folks I know decided to stay on through Thanksgiving because of the sudden drop in interest rates... But now with the stigma of, "days on the market" (DOM) they're wondering if they should pull their homes off till Spring...
If you're avoiding the DOM curse, pulling it off makes no difference... The internet ensures anyone can figure out how long your house has been out there... That sort of thinking sounds a bit old school to me... the other side of the coin has always been that if someone looks at your home during the holidays, they must be pretty serious...
Let me know what you think... I know plenty of sellers have been calling around...
No one told me there was a sexiest Realtor competition... It's true... The good folks at the San Francisco Examiner where the genuises who came up with the idea... I'm a bit jealous I have to admit...
But without further delay... here are the winners
Miyuki "Mia" Takami of Paragon Real Estate
Milko Encinas of Herth Real Estate
Here is Alex Clark's story for the SF Real Estate Examiner...
What a battle it was, but as the saying goes, all good things must come to an end, and so is the case for our little ego boosting glam event that is the one and only San Francisco's Sexiest Realtor Contest. We have to say the turnout this year blew away that of last year, and we thank all of those that participated.
With over 76,000 votes tallied, we've found two winners. For the women, we're proud to announce San Francisco's Sexiest Female Realtor 2008....Miyuki "Mia" Takami of Paragon Real Estate.
It was an insanely close contest between Mia and Thena Luu DiNapoli, but somehow Mia was able to pull 600+ votes around in the final hours of polling. Truth be told, we were already resizing Thena's photo for the win. Maybe this little plug had something to do with it, or maybe Mia's fans were just a bit more fanatical than Thena's. We'll never know. What we do know is Lee Bender surprised us all! Nice work Lee!
For the men, we're proud to announce San Francisco's Sexiest Male Realtor 2008...Milko Encinas of Herth Real Estate.
It was very surprising (although the same thing happened last year, so maybe we should learn to expect it) to see the men garnered WAY more votes than the women, and Milko handily defeated Rob La Eace by around 18,000 votes. It was close for a while, but then Milko just ran away with it.
It was fun to see the lead change multiple times in both the male and female contests.
Not only do our winners receive the coveted title of San Francisco's Sexiest Realtor, but this year we're throwing in a T-Shirt of their choice. Winners make sure to shoot us an email with your size and we'll make sure to get you one. Also make sure to let us know if you want Real Estate Sucks (means "doesn't suck" for those that don't get blog humor) or Real Estate Sucks.
To all the other contestants, thank you soooo much for being good sports and having fun with this. Thanks to all those that voted, and thanks to all the sites that linked to us. We appreciate it.
We'll see you same time, same place next year, so mark your calendars.
Happy Holidays to all, and to all a good night.
See you in a week (or so, depending on the pow-pow gnar gnar dumping down in them thar hills).
I can tell you things are going to be different this time around.
As someone in the middle of refinancing a home a few things stand out in the process.
1. I actually had to fill out the application before I got the check.
2.The appraised prices is only good for as long as the appraiser is in the house.
3. This time someone actually asked if I had a job.
Trust me, there are more forms, more questions and more documents to fill out then when I first applied for my mortgage... it's a good thing
I would love to hear from others going through the process too...
Mortgage Applications Surge on Falling Rates
Mortgage applications surged by the largest amount on record last week as a new Federal Reserve program pushed interest rates down to their lowest level in more than 3 years, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications, which includes both purchase and refinance loans, for the week ended November 28 soared a record 112.1 percent to 857.7, the highest reading since the week ended March 21 when it reached 965.9.
Potential borrowers were lured by enticing mortgage rates, which dropped dramatically after the Federal Reserve unveiled a plan last week to buy up to $500 billion of mortgage securities backed by government-sponsored enterprises, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae. The program also entails buying up to $100 billion of debt issued by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Federal Home Loan Banks.
"Many borrowers missed an opportunity to take advantage when rates dropped sharply for a brief period when the GSEs were placed under conservatorship," Orawin Velz, Associate Vice President of Economic Forecasting, said in a statement.
"When rates plummeted following the Fed's announcement that it would buy GSE debt and MBS, many of those on the sidelines decided to quickly jump in and take advantage of lower rates before they began to rebound," she said.
Borrowing costs on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, excluding fees, averaged 5.47 percent, down a whopping 0.52 percentage point from the previous week, the largest drop since 1990 when the MBA started conducting the weekly survey.
Down 44 percent in the City, down 22 percent in Marin... Mortgage rates hit a 37 year low yesterday... BUY, BUY, BUY...
THIS IS IT PEOPLE... WE'RE IN A BUYERS' MARKET... BUY, BUY, BUY
Get your mortgages in place, and do what you have to do... if you don't have a mortgage person yet, may i suggest Ed Lynch 415-381-7018 (not a paid endorsement)... finest mortgage person around... People this is the moment we've all been waiting for...
San Francisco Bay area home sales decelerated in November but beat the year-ago mark for the third consecutive month. The allure of discounted foreclosures continued to drive sales in affordable inland markets, which helped push the median sale price down to its lowest point since former President Bill Clinton was in the White House.
The median price paid for all new and resale houses and condos combined in the nine-county Bay Area fell to $350,000 last month. That was down 6.7 percent from $375,000 in October and down a record 44.4% from $629,000 in November 2007, according to MDA DataQuick, a San Diego-based real estate information service.
The November median sale price - the point where half of the homes sold for more and half for less - stood at its lowest since it was $350,000 in September 2000. It was 47.4% below the peak median of $665,000 reached last year in June, July and August.
The median has fallen on a year-over-year basis for 12 consecutive months, yanked lower by several factors: price depreciation; a shift toward more sales in the less-expensive inland markets; slower high-end sales; and buyers' preference for lower-priced foreclosures.
Last month 47.6% of all homes that resold in the Bay Area had been foreclosed on at some point in the prior 12 months, up from 44.0% in October and 10.1% a year ago.
At the county level, foreclosure resales last month ranged from 10.0 percent of resales in San Francisco to 63.6% in Solano County. In the other seven counties, November foreclosure resales were as follows: Alameda, 44.4%; Contra Costa, 63.0%; Marin, 22.6%; Napa, 40.8 percent; Santa Clara, 38.9%; San Mateo, 21.8%; Sonoma, 51.6 percent.
Wonderful spacious condo just listed in South Beach, one of the growing hot spots of the city. It’s sophisticated, roomy and built with an urban flair. Loft includes one bed, one bath, dramatic dark wood floors, high ceilings, and a designer kitchen with all new steel appliances. If this doesn’t strike your fancy, there’s a large closet space and a bonus library with extra storage areas. Perfect for those who can never have too much closet space! Also has easy access to MUNI, Cal Train Station, Freeway and Ferry Building. Make it your home today! Come to the Open House- Sunday’s 2-4pm.
If you're looking to put a positive spin on the news of the day... no one does it better than the folks at the California Association of Realtor...
Here's what they had to say today...
LOS ANGELES (Dec. 16) – Rising home sales, declining home prices, stricter loan underwriting standards, and the financial market meltdown contributed to a turbulent year in California’s housing market, according to the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®’ (C.A.R.) “State of the California Housing Market 2008-2009” report released today.
Sales generally improved over last year in all parts of the state, with significant price declines leading to sharp increases in the Central Valley and Southern California . Sales of existing detached homes hit bottom in the last quarter of 2007, and have since risen in year to year comparisons. Following two years of steep declines exceeding 20 percent, annual sales in the California housing market are expected to increase 12 percent to 395,600 in 2008, with a further 12.5 percent annual increase projected for 2009. The increase in sales is largely attributed to the growth in the absorption of distressed properties with mark-downs in prices.
Consistent with the increasing trend of distressed sales, almost one of five (19.8 percent) sellers sold their property because the property was in foreclosure, short sales, or default, an increase of 6 percent from 2007.
“Many home sellers sold their properties at a loss, as price declines eliminated equity gains,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “The number of sellers who sold their home with a loss almost doubled from 11.9 percent in 2007 to a record-setting 22.2 percent in 2008, well above 1.9 percent in 2006, and almost triple the long-term average of 7.7 percent.”
Homes in the mid-to-upper price range were less likely than lower-priced homes to suffer a loss from a sale. Twenty-eight percent of sellers with homes valued under $500,000 had a net cash loss in 2008, an increase from 16 percent in 2007; twenty percent with homes valued between $500,000 and $999,999 had a net cash loss in 2008, an increase from 9 percent in 2007; and million-dollar home sellers who had a net cash loss from their home sale dropped from 8 percent in 2007 to 5 percent in 2008.
The long-term value of homeownership again was demonstrated in 2008. Home sellers who owned their properties for a longer period of time, and did not refinance or cash out, were less likely to experience a loss from their home sale. While only 3 percent of sellers who owned their homes for more than five years had a net cash loss from their home sale – unchanged from 2007 --47 percent of sellers who owned their homes for less than three years had a net cash loss in 2008, an increase from 34 percent in 2007; thirty-three percent of sellers who owned their homes between three to five years had a net cash loss in 2008, a jump from 7 percent in 2007.
The median price of existing homes, including single-family homes, condos, and townhomes, declined by 17.8 percent to $440,000 in 2008, compared with $535,000 a year earlier. The decline is the largest drop in price since the inception of the study, surpassing the record decline of 10.2 percent set in 1995.
“The market will continue to experience large year-to-year decreases in the coming months before leveling out in 2009. The statewide median price is expected to decline 31.7 percent to $381,000 for 2008, the first decline since 1996. The statewide median price will further decline by 6 percent in 2009 to $358,000,” Appleton-Young added.
Affordability increased dramatically in 2008 resulting from the decline in median home prices. C.A.R.’s First-Time Buyer Housing Affordability Index (FTB-HAI) rose to 53 percent during the third quarter. The FTB-HAI measures the percentage of households that can afford to purchase an entry-level home in California . C.A.R. also reports first-time buyer indexes for regions and select counties within the state. The Index is the most fundamental measure of housing well-being for first-time buyers in the state. To view the assumptions and methodology used to calculate C.A.R.’s FTB-HAI, please visit http://www.car.org/economics/marketdata/ftbhaimethodology/
.
“The share of first-time buyers increased from 30.4 percent in 2007 to 35.9 percent in 2008, below the long-run average of 38.3 percent and well below the peak levels of the mid-1990s when half the market consisted of first-timers,” said C.A.R. President James Liptak.
Despite an increase in affordability, the ratio of homes prices to household income remained high for many first-time home buyers. More restrictive lending standards and the credit crunch also resulted in many first-time home buyers’ inability to qualify for a mortgage loan.
Resulting from the ongoing turmoil in the financial market, many financial institutions declined loans that were deemed risky, especially jumbo loans with amounts too big to be guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
Restrictive loan underwriting standards led to a decrease in the use of second mortgages. Second mortgages dropped from 32.7 percent in 2007 to 9.3 percent in 2008, the first time it was below 10 percent since 1999 and well below the high of 43.4 percent reached in 2006.
As conventional loans became more difficult to obtain, the percentage of FHA loans as a first mortgage increased significantly in 2008. The percentage of home buyers utilizing an FHA loan increased to 18.8 percent in 2008, compared with 1.2 percent in 2007, partially a result of the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008, which temporarily raised the conforming loan limit in high-cost areas to $729,750 from $417,000 until December 31, 2008. FHA loans typically require lower down payments and have less rigid credit-qualifying guidelines than conventional loans. VA loans also increased from 0.3 percent in 2007 to 2.7 percent in 2008.
Reflecting the fall out from the subprime mortgage meltdown, the share of adjustable rate and hybrid loans among all new first mortgages continued to decrease, declining for the third consecutive year. The market share of these mortgages tumbled from 20.2 percent in 2007 to 7.5 percent in 2008. The market share of fixed-rate mortgages increased sharply from last year’s 74 percent to 91 percent in 2008.
Other key findings from C.A.R.’s “2008-2009 State of the Housing Market” report include:
· Distressed properties sold during 2008 had a median sales price of $330,000, a median price per square foot of $197, and a median size of 1,600 square feet.
· More than half of the distressed properties sold were Real Estate Owned (REO) (54.8 percent), almost one-third were short sales (31.2 percent) and the remainder were foreclosures (14.1 percent).
· Non-distressed properties had a median price of $541,000, a median price per square foot of $315, and a median size of 1,766 square feet.
· Four of five homes (80 percent) sold were discounted in 2008, an increase from 76 percent in 2007. The discount between sales price and list price increased from 4.3 percent in 2007 to a record setting 7.5 percent in 2008, more than double the long-run average of 2.8 percent.
· One of five properties (20.3 percent) fell out of escrow in 2008. Primary reasons include: buyers could not secure a mortgage (33.3 percent); buyer changed mind and decided not to buy (33.3 percent); and buyer could not come up with the down payment (10.8 percent). This question was not asked in previous surveys.
Agents have been telling me for weeks, and I heard it for myself yesterday... Buyers are actually asking for specific title companies to handle their title work... For the life of me I can't figure out what has brought about the change... I haven't seen title company ads popping up on the Bart or on MUNI, so what gives?
Is cost suddenly a concern?
Is Old Republic suddenly hip?
If anyone knows, or wants to venture a guess, this is the place do it...
Real Estate's voice of doom, aka Zillow has spoken from high atop of their Seattle headquarters...
They announced today homes owners had lost trillions of dollars worth of value in their homes this year... They're right on all accounts, and things don't seem to be getting better, but what they didn't mention was mortgage rates on are the slide (I realize the two facts are not connected, but I'm looking for good news)... and I mean that in a good way... Zillow listed today's rate for a 30 year fixed mortgage at 5.01%... So while we all might be losing value, there's always the chance to get a better mortgage and to remind yourself you don't live in Denver where the temperature was -10 last night...
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Homes in the United States have lost trillions of dollars in value during 2008, with nearly 11.7 million American households now owing more on their mortgage than their homes are worth, real estate website Zillow.com said on Monday.
U.S. homes are set to lose well over $2 trillion in value during 2008, according to an analysis of recent Zillow Real Estate Market Reports.
Home values declined 8.4 percent year-over-year during the first three quarters of this year, compared to the same period in 2007, the reports showed.
U.S. home values lost $1.9 trillion from the first of the year through the end of the third quarter, and will probably fall further in the fourth quarter. One in seven of all homeowners, or 14.3 percent, were "underwater" by the end of the third quarter, the reports showed.
"This year marked the acceleration of the market correction, and is likely to end with the eighth consecutive quarter of declines in home values," Dr. Stan Humphries, Zillow's vice president of data and analytics, said in a statement.
"In general, homeowners in most areas we cover are struggling with foreclosures pouring into the market, large amounts of negative equity and dropping home values. On the positive side, in the third quarter, some markets - particularly those hit hardest in the downturn - showed smaller year-over-year declines than in the prior quarter," he said.
"Our optimism here, though, must be tempered by the knowledge that the larger economic problems that emerged in the fourth quarter will likely further challenge the real estate market," he said.
The U.S. housing market is suffering the worst downturn since the Great Depression as a huge supply of unsold homes, tighter lending standards and record foreclosures push down home prices.
This is truly a deal in San Francisco. When do you ever see a home that’s not in foreclosure, listed at $328k? Not often! There’s also a bonus involved- $1500 bonus if closed by 12/31/2008, which is enough time for you to check out the house and do some research on other comparable homes. This single family home comes with three bedrooms and a bath. This lovely home just needs a bit of TLC. It’s also close to Muni and freeways 101 & 280. Schedule an open house today!
How many times have you seen this? A contractor buys the building next to yours with hopes of turning a building full or rentals into high end condos...
Daria Benedict had been in escrow for nearly a year on a 725-square-foot loft in the Chapman building in downtown Los Angeles when she got the first indication that the rehabilitation of the historic office building into high-end condos might have hit a snag.
The developer of the former Los Angeles Investment Co. building asked for a larger deposit on Benedict's purchase of a 13th-floor unit that promised an open floor plan and oversized windows. Benedict, who works for NBC's "Tonight Show," had to scramble to find the extra cash.
But it hardly mattered. In May, the developers took the Chapman building off the market altogether, returned buyers' deposits and instead opted to rent out the 168 units.
The Chapman found itself at the front of a rather unenviable trend: In the midst of a downturn in the real estate market, some developers are finding that they no longer can sell condos in buildings that even a year ago would have been quickly snapped up. Flummoxed by a precipitous drop in qualified buyers, they are choosing to rent out their buildings instead.
It's happening in downtown Los Angeles, and to a lesser degree in Hollywood and the San Fernando Valley -- areas where high-density housing has sprung up in recent years.
And the shift raises questions about some of the fundamental assumptions surrounding urban development. Instead of buyers who can afford the hefty down payments and mortgages, some of these developments are now attracting renters who need only put down rents of $1,500 to $4,500 a month.
In what is a glorified press release (see below) ,the Altos company has once again invested their time and money to remind us that the price of homes continue to fall... So rather than just repeat their bad news, and give them the plug they were hoping for... I'll dig out the one gem in the story... Of the twenty six cities they reference in their report, San Francisco had the fastest turnover with an average of 92 days... once again going to distance to find the nugget of good news in the real estate market...
PRESS RELEASE (but somewhat useful)
The Altos 10-City Composite Price Index showed a decline in asking prices of 0.8% in November and 2.4% for the past three months. Prices of properties listed for-sale fell in 20 of 26 major markets according to the Real-Time Housing Market Report, published by Altos Research, the premier source for real-time real estate research, and market analysis consultancy Real IQ.
Asking prices fell at the fastest rate in Las Vegas - down 3.3% during November - and 6.9% over the most recent three-month period. This marks the eighth consecutive month that Las Vegas has posted the fastest rate of declining prices among major markets. Listing prices rose at the fastest rate in Houston - up 2.4% in November. Denver, Dallas and Houston are now the only markets showing three months of sequential price increases.
"Tight credit, job losses and plunging consumer confidence continued to pressure listing prices in most major markets during November," said Michael Simonsen, CEO and co-founder of Altos Research. "Recent government actions to reduce mortgage rates and slow the pace of foreclosures could finally start to stem the decline but we don't expect to see major changes until at least mid-2009."
Inventory levels declined in 24 of 26 major markets with only Phoenix and Las Vegas registering small increases. Across the 10-City Composite Index markets, inventory declined by 5.1% in November and 7.5% over the past three months. Inventory fell by the largest amounts in Boston, San Francisco and Seattle. "Inventory levels have continued to decline for many months and November was no exception," said Stephen Bedikian, partner and research director for Real IQ. "The real estate industry continues to work through the large inventory overhang but only very slowly."
Twenty-four of 26 markets had an average days-on-market of 100 or more. The average days-on-market rose in all but one market - Las Vegas - where it was effectively flat during November. By far, the market with the slowest rate of inventory turnover was Miami at an average of 179 days-on-market. Miami has experienced the slowest market turnover in every month since September 2007. San Francisco enjoyed the fastest rate of turnover with an average days-on-market of 92.
Many years ago I learned when I was working for one of those big fancy 24 news networks, it didn't matter how many times you suggested a story, it wasn't a story until the New York Times did the story...
So now it's official... for months I've been saying it's time to buy... the 30 percent off coupon we've all been waiting for is here... so get out there San Francisco and buy....
Maybe It’s Time to Buy That First House
Five or 10 years from now, when the financial crisis has ended and housing prices are up smartly once more, we will look in the rearview mirror and realize that we missed a golden age for first-time home buyers.
Then, everyone who sat on their down payment savings accounts for a few years too long will kick themselves for not taking advantage of what may turn out to be the buying opportunity of a lifetime for those who can qualify for a mortgage.
Unfortunately, we do not know when this golden age will begin, because we will be able to identify a bottom to the housing market only with the benefit of hindsight. But as it does with the stock market, the moment will probably arrive when everyone is feeling the most pessimistic.
That moment is certainly getting closer. Housing prices have fallen drastically from their peak levels in many areas of the country. Rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages are already close to 5.5 percent, and this week there were suggestions that the federal government might try to drive them down to 4.5 percent, a truly incredible figure to be able to lock in for three decades.
Meanwhile, first-time home buyers have the same advantage they have always had, which is that they do not have to sell their old place before buying a new one. That is an added advantage in areas where many available houses simply are not moving, because the people trying to sell them will not be bidding against you.
If you’re hoping for a recovery in the housing market, you ought to be cheering on the first-time home buyers. When they purchase homes, their sellers are free to move on or move up, stimulating further sales.
But if you are a potential first-time buyer yourself, or lending or giving the down payment to one, you are probably as frightened as you are tempted by all the “For Sale” signs that have become “On Sale” signs. So let’s quickly review some of the still-grim pricing data in certain areas — and consider the reasoning offered up by first-time buyers who have forged ahead anyhow.
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there you go... the headline you never see... while 1 in 10 American's are underwater with their mortgages, a full 90 percent of us are not...
WASHINGTON -- A record one in 10 American homeowners with a mortgage were either at least a month behind on their payments or in foreclosure at the end of September as the source of housing market pressure shifted from risky loans to the crumbling U.S. economy.
The percentage of loans at least a month overdue or in foreclosure was up from 9.2 percent in the April-June quarter, and up from 7.3 percent a year earlier, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Friday.
The foreclosure crisis continued to be concentrated in states like Florida, where a stunning 7.3 percent of all loans were in foreclosure at the end of September, by far the highest in the country.
In Nevada, the number was 5.6 percent. It was 3.9 percent in California -- compared with about 3 percent nationally.
Distress in the home loan market started about two years ago as increasing numbers of adjustable-rate loans reset to higher interest rates. But the latest wave of delinquencies is coming from the surge in unemployment.
I'm sure you've heard by now the Treasury department is floating a plan to offer 30 year mortgages at 4.5 percent. Now of course if this does turn out to be true, things are bound to pick up...
Obviously the plan was floated as a trial balloon, and there is going to be plenty of reaction... but the big question is, who will that impact folks with jumbos...
Silicon Valley mortgage brokers could barely contain their enthusiasm as news leaked from Washington of a proposal to reignite the dormant housing market by driving down mortgage rates to the 4.5 percent range.
The plan, which reportedly could be announced as early as next week, has the potential to dramatically boost the housing market and the faltering economy by stimulating stagnant home sales and significantly lowering monthly mortgage payments for millions of Americans.
"It would be a dream come true," said Cathy Warshawsky of Bay Area Loan in San Jose, the president of the Silicon Valley chapter of the California Association of Mortgage Brokers.
At rates of 4.5 percent for a fixed, 30-year loan, "We would have everybody and their brother who had equity in their homes coming to refinance. That would be an amazing influx of loan applications. It would keep things going for a long, long time."
The Treasury Department is reportedly considering several plans, including one proposed by the Financial Services Roundtable, a lending industry trade group, that could drop mortgage rates on 30-year loans by about 1 percentage point. Under that group's plan, the Treasury Department would buy mortgage-backed securities from the government-sponsored entities Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which own or guarantee almost half of U.S. home mortgages.
In the ongoing saga known as real estate, things have for the most part come to a stand still here in the CiIty... Agents I know have plenty of listings, but still no buyers...
So I would like remind agents if you have an interesting listing and care to share it with the readers of this blog, drop me a note and I'll find the space to help get the word out...
Clearly prices are a concern to everyone not only buying but selling... the Wall Street Journal today takes a look at where those prices are headed in the future...
The Future for Home Prices
Over the past few years, Americans have had a brutal lesson in the risks of real estate. House prices have crashed more than 35% in some parts of the country, millions of people are losing their homes to foreclosure, and banks are failing.
The takeaway? Many Americans still see real estate as their best shot at wealth. In survey after survey, people expect prices to bounce back -- in some cases, as soon as six months from now.
Those hoping for a quick rebound are likely to be disappointed. Economists and other pros generally say home prices won't bottom out before the second half of 2009, and some don't see a bottom until 2011 or 2012. Even when they stop falling, prices may scrape along the bottom of the rut for years.
Down the Road
And longer term? Over the next 10 to 20 years, housing economists expect prices will rise again -- but, on average, probably not nearly as much as they've averaged over the past decade. That isn't to say that some places won't experience booms (and busts). But, the experts say, you should generally expect house prices to rise just a bit more than inflation and roughly in line with household income.
Karl Case, an economics professor at Wellesley College whose name adorns the S&P Case-Shiller home-price indexes, has studied U.S. house prices going back to the 1890s. Over the long run, he says, home prices tend to increase on average at an inflation-adjusted rate of 2.5% to 3% a year, about the same as per capita income. He thinks that long-run pattern is likely to continue, despite the recent choppiness.
Lookin’ for a home in the Financial District? The Jackson Square just might be the place for you. They’ve got nine different floor plans, ranging from loft-style to townhouse-style penthouses, so you’re guaranteed to find one that suits you. These lovely condos just listed a few blocks from the Embarcadero and truly rare. Also within walking distance to the great shops and restaurants in Chinatown, Telegraph Hill, and North Beach.
I just got of the phone with my favorite mortgage guy and he tells me business for him at least should start picking up soon... I was advised to gather my paperwork because he expect rates to dip below five percent for 30 year fixed mortgages. With HUD's decision to raise limits on conforming loan in high cost areas, the Bay Area now caps at $625,000 instead of $417,000... below is a copy of the HUD press release from earlier this month.
If you're a mortgage person, I would love to hear from you... Where do you see things headed?
HUD ANNOUNCES NEW, PERMANENT FHA MORTGAGE LOAN LIMITS
New limits range from $271,050 to $625,500
WASHINGTON - U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development Secretary Steve Preston today announced the new Federal Housing Administration (FHA) mortgage loan limits for single-family homes as prescribed by the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008.
Beginning January 1, 2009, FHA will insure single-family home mortgages up to $271,050 in low cost areas and up to a maximum of $625,500 in high cost areas. The February 2008 Stimulus Package temporarily raised the FHA maximum to $729,750 through December 31, 2008. The new $625,500 maximum, however, represents a significant increase over the $362,790 limit that was in effect prior to the Stimulus Package.
Home sales increased 117.1 percent in October in California compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home fell 39.9 percent, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported today.
“Statewide sales increased significantly in October to 552,750 homes on an annualized basis, the highest sales level since late 2005,” said C.A.R. President James Liptak . “The record gain stemmed primarily from extremely large increases in regions with a high concentration of distressed sales.
“Most October sales likely opened escrow prior to the beginning of the ongoing freeze in the financial markets. We won’t have a clear picture of the full impact of the fallout until November and December sales are reported,” Liptak added.
Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled 552,750 in October at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations statewide. Statewide home resale activity increased 117.1 percent from the revised 254,650 sales pace recorded in October 2007. Sales in October 2008 increased 9.5 percent compared with the previous month.
The statewide sales figure represents what the total number of homes sold during 2008 would be if sales maintained the October pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.
The median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during October 2008 was $311,060, a 39.9 percent decrease from the revised $517,240 median for October 2007, C.A.R. reported. The October 2008 median price fell 1.9 percent compared with September’s revised $316,960 median price.
So the bad news just keeps getting worse... Not only are housing prices continuing their record slide to the point where we could all afford a home in Pacific Heights, but San Francisco had the worst month of any of the big cities, prices down 3.9 percent from the previous month.
As for the average price of a home, only Vegas and Phoenix have fallen faster... San Francisco is down nearly 30 percent for the year...
Here's how CNNmoney.com sees the story....
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The home price plunge stayed on a record pace this summer, according to a widely watched gauge of national real estate markets released Tuesday.
The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price national index recorded a 16.6% decline in the third quarter compared with the same period a year ago. That eclipsed the previous record of 15.1% set during the second quarter.
Prices in Case-Shiller's separate index of 10 major cities fell a record 18.6%, while its 20-city index dropped a record 17.4%
With foreclosures soaring at record rates, the economic picture dimming and job losses ramping up, all the elements were in place to push prices lower.
"The turmoil in the financial markets is placing further downward pressure on a housing market already weakened by its own fundamentals." says David Blitzer, Standard & Poor's spokesman for the indexes, in a press release. "All three aggregate indices and 13 of the 20 metro areas are reporting new record rates of decline. . . . Prices are back to where they were in early 2004."
The 10-city index is now 23.4% off its peak price, which came in June 2006; the 20-city index is down 21.8% from its July 2006 high and the national index has fallen 21% since the third quarter of 2006.
Home prices in the 10-city index have fallen for 26 consecutive months. The decline has broadened over the past 12 months, with prices dropping in every city of the 20-city index during September.
About a year ago I wrote in this blog that brokers all over the City and Marin were telling me operations had to thin; the traditional brokerage office had outlived it useful life and needed to be shut down if they were to survive... one broker from Pacific Union told me he expected they would keep one central office in Marin and agents could use it for client meetings, picking up paperwork and for meeting with a broker for whatever reason... The bottom line was technology was now meeting the needs for an office... I can tell you first hand that very few agents these days actually make it to the office these days...
Now a year later the folks at Inman News are repeating the same story... but seeing how a year has passed and very little has changed, I'm not sure how quickly any of this will happen.
SAN FRANCISCO -- The housing bust and technological change don't have to spell doom for the traditional real estate brokerage model, but companies that thrive will do so by boosting their presence in the virtual world while cutting costs associated with their brick-and-mortar operations.
That's the perspective of Sherry Chris, president and CEO of Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate LLC, Realogy Corp.'s ambitious bet on the traditional brokerage model.
Speaking Monday in San Francisco at the The Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics annual Real Estate and Economics Symposium, Chris talked about the factors that make some brokerages vulnerable during the downturn and what others are doing to profit from change.
Chris emphasized her own company's extensive presence in the world of online social media, portraying Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate as a brokerage that's equipped to compete in the changing landscape.
Better Homes and Gardens' company blog and the company's presence on social networking sites like Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and Flickr generate leads from real estate agents and brokers who want to become part of the Better Homes and Gardens brand, Chris said.
But the Internet and online social media is also becoming the preferred method of reaching consumers. Chris said social media will "rule" because of heavy adoption by 18- to 34-year-old "echo boomers."
"That means 'bye-bye' to real estate TV advertising," she said.
With banks unloading a record number of foreclosures, Bay Area home sales soared and the median price plummeted in October, according to a real estate report released Thursday.
Most of the action - and the bargains - were in areas where bank repossessions have become a fact of life. Almost half of all existing homes sold were foreclosures. Their bargain-basement prices sent the Bay Area median tumbling 45 percent during the past year to $375,000, according to research firm MDA DataQuick of San Diego.
Despite an economic crisis and a stock market plunge, the fire-sale prices pulled more buyers into the market. A total of 5,624 resale homes changed hands in the nine-county Bay Area in October, up 66.2 percent from a year ago.
"People searching for that bargain were pretty committed; even after all the disturbing news on the economy and financial markets, they decided to pull the trigger," said Andrew LePage, a DataQuick analyst. "Perhaps it reflects the number of people who feel like real estate right now, in relative terms, is not a bad place to park their money."
Deals like this are hard to come by in San Francisco. This beautiful single family home just listed in the Oceanview neighborhood. Home includes 3 bedrooms, 1.5 baths, formal dining room, spacious living room (which is great for the upcoming holidays), updated kitchen and bathrooms. What a delight if you’re hosting this year! Plus, it has easy access to the 280 freeway and close to SFSU, SFCC and Stonestown Mall! Just listed at $539k.
Housing affordability more than doubled in California in the past year, according to a report released Thursday.
The California Association of Realtors said the percentage of households that could afford to buy an entry-level home in the state rose to 53 percent in the third quarter of 2008, compared with 24 percent for the same period a year ago.
CAR’s First Time Buyer Housing Affordability Index measures the percentage of households that can afford to purchase an entry-level home.
Sacramento County rose from 68 percent in the second quarter to 71 percent in the third, considerably higher than the 46 percent it recorded in the third quarter of 2007.
San Francisco was the least affordable, but the index there rose from 18 percent last year to 35 percent this year.
Statewide, the minimum household income needed to purchase an entry-level home priced at $287,760 in the third quarter of 2008 was $56,100, based on an adjustable interest rate of 5.91 percent and assuming a 10 percent down payment. First-time buyers typically purchase a home equal to 85 percent of the prevailing median price. That would peg the monthly payment including taxes and insurance at $1,870 for the third quarter of 2008.
In Sacramento, that entry-level home was $180,170, with a monthly payment of $1,170, requiring a minimum qualifying income of $35,100.
Statewide, the minimum qualifying income was 44 percent lower than a year ago when households needed $100,500 to qualify for a loan on an entry-level home.
I know first hand homes are selling. While hanging out waiting for an agent yesterday I saw to signed contracts go by. And another top agent I spoke with has two pocket listings in the 2.5 million dollar range that she expects will sell before going on the MLS. Yes, things have been worse, but folks are buying... The story below is from the Wall Street Journal and proof that folks are buying.. .
Home Sales Up 66.7% in Southern California
Drop prices low enough and the buyers will come. Home sales in Southern California rose again last month, according to a report released today by San Diego-based MDA DataQuick. The real estate information service reported that in October 21,532 houses and condos closed escrow in six counties in California — Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernadino, San Diego and Ventura. This was up 5% from September and 66.7% from last year. More than half of all sales were on homes that were foreclosed on at some point in the previous 12 months. Typically real estate sales slow down from September to October.
At $300,000 the median home price in the six-county region was at its lowest since April 2003.
Readers, do you think rising unemployment and declining consumer confidence will impact SoCal home sales next month, or will we continue to see buyers jumping into the market?
–Emily Friedlander
Today's report on skidding home prices singles out the Bay Area out as the second most expensive with an average home price of $615,700, and the state of California as in their words, home to "The steepest declines in single-family home prices."
The report sites the, Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario area, where the median price of $227,200 dropped 39.4 percent from a year ago, followed by Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville at $212,000, down 36.8 percent from the third quarter of 2007, and San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, where the price dropped 36.0 percent to $377,300
Below is the complete story from the fine folks at the Associated Press...
WASHINGTON – Home prices fell in a record four out of five U.S. cities in the third quarter as low-cost foreclosures flooded the market and the U.S. housing market's decline spread throughout the country.
Among 152 metropolitan areas included in the trade group's survey, 120 posted declines in median home sales prices compared with a year ago, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. Nationally, sales fell by almost 8 percent in the third quarter compared with the same period a year ago.
Sales of foreclosures and other distressed properties made up around 40 percent of transactions in the quarter, bringing down the median price by 9 percent from a year ago to $200,500.
Sales fell in all but four states in the Realtors' group's report. The exceptions were Nevada, California, Arizona and Virginia, where buyers have been able to snap up foreclosed homes at a bargain.
"A very large proportion of distressed home sales are taking place at discounted prices compared to more normal conditions a year ago," Charles McMillan, the Realtors group's president, said in a statement.
That's especially true in places like Sacramento and Riverside, Calif., where prices were down 37 percent and 39 percent, respectively, from last year. The two California cities had the largest annual price declines in the report.
A nasty brew of strict lending standards, falling home values and a tough economy is filtering through the housing market. By the end of the year, foreclosure listing service RealtyTrac Inc. expects more than a million bank-owned properties to have piled up on the market, representing around a third of all properties for sale in the U.S.
Meanwhile many economists believe the economy has fallen into a recession that could be the worst downturn in more than two decades. As layoffs accelerate, that's likely to put further downward pressure on housing prices.
Freddie Mac said last week that rising unemployment rates, tightening credit and deteriorating economic conditions "contributed to a substantial increase in the number of delinquent loans," including loans made to borrowers with strong credit.
Freddie Mac has 28,000 foreclosed properties on its books, while its sister company, Fannie Mae owns 67,500.
On Tuesday, Rep. Barney Frank, D-Mass., chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, said "it is essential" to use some of the funds in the government's $700 billion financial rescue program to stem the tide of foreclosures.
As the economy slows, and technology improves are we once again on the cusp of a FBSO revolution?
It's a story that's been told a million times in my lifetime alone... but it the NY Times says it, it must be true..
The Faces of for Sale by Owner
Hal Ruzal personifies the do-it-yourself spirit.
He installed his own kitchen, built loft spaces for his office and sleeping area and tore down walls to convert his apartment in the meatpacking district from a one-bedroom to an open loft space. In the same vein, he is trying to sell his apartment without the aid of a real estate broker.
“The first five letters of broker is broke,” said Mr. Ruzal, 54, a mechanic at Bicycle Habitat in SoHo. “Say I get $525,000, a broker will get around $32,000 of that. I make $40,000 a year. For no work, they are getting about the same amount of money.”
Mr. Ruzal was referring to the 6 percent commission that real estate agents might earn on the sale of his 550-square-foot apartment, currently on the market for $525,000.
Since listing his apartment at the end of September on Craigslist.org with the tag line “Cheaper Than Renting,” Mr. Ruzal has spent every weekend walking around his neighborhood with a cardboard sign, shouting “Apartment for sale,” to passers-by and to diners sitting outside at the restaurant Pastis.
“You have to be original,” Mr. Ruzal said. “If you’re boring, you’ll just get passed over.”
Common wisdom might suggest that in an economic downturn, Mr. Ruzal and others taking the for-sale-by-owner, or FSBO (pronounced FIZZ-bo), route, would do better with a broker’s knowledge of the market and powerful advertising reach. On the other hand, at a time of cutting corners, the savings implied by a FSBO sale may appeal more than ever.
Check out this new condo that just hit the market. Beautiful, brand new, contemporary style with modern architecture—all these words come to mind when describing this new pad. Located in central SF, this home is great for those who work in the financial district or love being close to downtown. With the holidays coming up, I’m sure we’ll all be spending quite a bit of time shopping downtown. Just listed at $575k! click here for the complete listing
Zillow.com the website now best known for delivering bad news to delusional home owners announced today homes values have slide for the 7th consecutive quarter down 9.7 percent.
Zillow has San Francisco down 14.4 percent and Mill Valley, down 10 percent.
Just 60 miles from the City sits the town of Mountain House... In the minds of those who lived there a reasonable drive from San Francisco and clearly a one time affordable place to live... Today 90 percent of the homeowners are underwater with their mortgages.
A Town Drowns in Debt as Home Values Plunge
MOUNTAIN HOUSE, Calif. — This town, 59 feet above sea level, is the most underwater community in America.
Because of plunging home values, almost 90 percent of homeowners here owe more on their mortgages than their houses are worth, according to figures released Monday. That is the highest percentage in the country. The average homeowner in Mountain House is “underwater,” as it is known, by $122,000.
A visit to the area over the last couple of days shows how the nationwide housing crisis is contributing to a broad slowdown of the American economy, as families who feel burdened by high mortgages are pulling back on their spending.
Jerry Martinez, a general contractor, and his wife, Marcie, an accounts clerk, are among the struggling owners in Mountain House. Burdened with credit card debt and a house losing value by the day, they are learning the necessity of self-denial for themselves and their three children.
No more family bowling night. No more dinners at Chili’s or Applebee’s. No more going to the movies.
“We make decent money, but it takes a tremendous amount to pay the mortgage,” Mr. Martinez, 33, said.
First American CoreLogic, a real estate data company, has calculated that 7.6 million properties in the country were underwater as of Sept. 30, while another 2.1 million were in striking distance. That is nearly a quarter of all homes with mortgages. The 20 hardest-hit ZIP codes are all in four states: California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona.
Melissa Morris put her Haight-Ashbury flat on the market in mid-September. It was priced right and she accepted an offer of $825,000 within days.
The contractor's inspection was set for Sept. 29 and as the buyer toured the home, the stock market was in the midst of its historic meltdown. The Dow Jones industrial average would ultimately drop 777.68 points that day, setting a record for the worst point drop in its history.
The buyer's stock portfolio took a hit and he walked away from the deal. Though the buyer ultimately came back, Morris agreed to a lower sale price of $815,000.
Volatility in the stock market, falling home prices and tightening credit markets mean that the lousy times for Bay Area home sellers roll on. The median price for a home or condo in San Francisco fell 12.7 percent to $675,000 in September from $773,500 a year earlier, according to MDA DataQuick. At the same time, the number of homes sold inside San Francisco's city limits held steady in September, while foreclosures helped that number increase 45 percent across the Bay Area's nine counties.
To give you an idea just how how much of a buyers’ market its become. The owners of 675 Hawthorne Drive in Tiburon ($2,595,000) are now offering to buy down the loan for a potential buy two points and pick up all closing costs.
Love to hear about other signs of a buyers' market. Feel free to drop me, and if we can use your tip I’ll be sure to give you credit.
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McGuire Real Estate and Urban Bay Properties have announced the merger of the two companies.
Urban Bay Properties specializes in urban-style housing such as lofts and condominiums. Established in 2003 with offices South of Market and in Oakland's Jack London Square, the firm has focused on new developments and home sales in San Francisco's South of Market and South Beach districts, as well as neighborhoods in Oakland, Emeryville, and Berkeley.
"This merger provides new opportunities for McGuire. With the addition of Urban Bay we are able to provide Bay Area-wide coverage with seven offices. We believe the East Bay and San Francisco's SOMA district will be burgeoning marketplaces for McGuire. By partnering with an established marketplace leader such as Urban Bay, McGuire will be able to offer its clients an unmatched level of knowledge and experience in these developing spaces," said Charles Moore, CEO of McGuire Real Estate.
McGuire Real Estate, founded in 1919, has been a market leader in luxury home sales for nearly 90 years. This opportunity is part of a larger plan for McGuire to expand its regional presence. In the fall of 2006, McGuire opened its Noe Valley office as the first step in this expansion. This merger is the next step and enhances McGuire's presence in San Francisco's South of Market district, as well as the East Bay.
Thomas C. Brown, CEO of Urban Bay, will assume the role of Chief Operating Officer at McGuire Real Estate, creating a unified management team for the company.
"This merger provides significant opportunities for Urban Bay Properties to be able to extend its positioning in the luxury market. The combined resources of both companies allows for greater emphasis and expansion of our web presence and technology offerings for both agents and clients," said Mr. Brown.
For those of you fond of saying it doesn’t happen here, I offer up this story...
A friend of mine selling her home in Marin walked into her bathroom Wednesday during a broker’s open to find an agent Pharming.
For those of you not familiar with the term, it refers to digging through a medicine chest for prescription drugs.
According to my friend there are two doors to the bathroom, one from the hallway and the other from the master bedroom. The one door probably locked, the other obviously not.
When she walked into the bathroom to replace a picture, the agent was standing there with pills in hand.
My friend was completely unaware what was going on at first, but quickly realized what was happening when the agent dropped the pill bottles and pills she was holding while running out of the house.
Do your clients and yourselves a favor and remind clients not to leave pills in the medicine chest during an open house.
'Underwater' Need Not Mean Foreclosure
Why Most People Who Owe More Than a Property's Worth Will Still Keep Their Homes
What does being "underwater" in your house really mean? Probably not that you're drowning.
The number of underwater homeowners -- those who owe more on their mortgages than their home is now worth -- has been growing sharply since 2006 as real-estate prices have tumbled. By some estimates, between one in six and one in eight homeowners are in that position, most of them people who bought homes in the past few years or who put down small or no down payments.
This worries economists and policy makers, since owing more than your home is worth is the first step toward foreclosure. And it's a concern to the rest of us because foreclosures are roiling the financial markets and, closer to home, they drag down our neighborhoods. (Most people who still have equity, by contrast, would rather sell their houses at a loss than lose what's left of their investment.)
In response to concerns about rising foreclosure and delinquency rates, federal regulators are studying possible new programs aimed at needy homeowners. There are concerns that such programs could attract a flood of applications from those who don't truly need assistance or encourage lenders to push homeowners into foreclosure. At the same time, lenders such as J.P. Morgan Chase and Bank of America have committed to working on new loan terms for the most-distressed homeowners.
But experts who have studied previous sharp housing downturns in Texas, California, New York and Massachusetts say that being underwater, while unpleasant, doesn't lead huge numbers of homeowners to default on their mortgages and end up in foreclosure.
This just listed on Trulia a few days ago. 3 bed, 1 bath single family home in the outer sunset. A brief hip and a hop over to the beach. No one will block your view of the sunset except for the fog itself! Built in the late 40s, this home not only has breathtaking ocean views, but also hardwood floors, brick fireplace for those upcoming chilly nights and a kitchen with great lighting. Also a great location if you enjoy long, frequent walks on the beach. Come take a look today!
Whether you’ve notice or not, Forbes.com loves lists... Their almost daily effort to attraction attention to their website has once again paid off... Today they released, “Real estate markets most likely to rebound.”
San Francisco came in second for commercial real estate. Seattle took the top spot.
Quoting Forbes.com...
“San Francisco comes in second with a 6.12. The City by the Bay learned from the tech crash of 2001 not to overbuild. There is a reasonable supply of office and apartment space, which should limit vacancies. San Francisco's port is also expected to help the city during the downturn as Americans continue to rely on Asian imports.”
Once again Zillow is out with another survey that asks homeowners about the value of their homes... And somehow seventy five percent of Americans DON'T believe their home's value has decreased in the past year.
The best finding in the survey was that those who planed to voter for John McCain on Nov. 4 "were slightly less realistic about their own homes' values." Zillow's words not mine.
I have no explanation for how any of this possible, but here's Zillow's version of events...
Months of government bailouts and stock market volatility brought Americans' perception of the values of their own homes closer to reality than it was last quarter, but surprisingly half of U.S. homeowners still believe their home is insulated from the nation's home value declines, according to the Zillow Q3 Homeowner Confidence Survey.
This quarter, 49 percent of homeowners said they think their own home's value has increased or stayed the same over the past year. However, nearly three-quarters (74 percent) of homes have lost value in the past 12 months, according to preliminary analysis of Zillow's Q3 Real Estate Market Reports, which will be released Nov. 12.
Perception-Reality Gap Shrinks in Third Quarter, but Many Still Show "Not My Home" Sentiment
Homeowners are not quite as confident as they were in the second quarter, when 62 percent said their homes either increased in value or remained the same, but a significant gap between the reality of home values and homeowners' perceptions persists. This is despite the timing of the survey - it was fielded from Oct. 7 to 9, during the worst week in stock market history.
Zillow's Home Value Misperception Index(2), which measures homeowners' perceptions of their home's value over time, shrank to 16 in the third quarter from 32 in the second quarter. An index of zero would mean homeowners' perceptions were in line with actual values.
Homeowners in the South and West had the most accurate perceptions of home values. In the South, where 67 percent of homes decreased in value, the Misperception Index was 13. In the West, where 85 percent of homes declined in value, the Misperception Index was also 13. Northeasterners' perceptions were most out of line with reality: 71 percent of homes there lost value, and the Misperception Index was 20.
Heading into the slower holiday months of November and December things are shaping up for a better next year... Less homes on the market, lower prices and if the experts are right, a lot of folks here in the Bay Area withdrew a ton of cash from the markets and might be looking for somewhere to invest... Obviously, hard to say... the City agents I've been speaking with confirm that cash is still king...
So where has all the excess inventory gone, ask the Wall Street Journal...
Bargain Hunters Help Shrink Housing Glut
Lower home prices are luring some buyers back into the U.S. housing market, but foreclosures and a weakening economy are likely to keep downward pressure on prices for at least another year, economists say.
A quarterly Wall Street Journal survey of housing data in 28 major metro areas shows that the glut of unsold homes listed for sale is shrinking in most of them. In many cases, sales have been stimulated by investors who are grabbing what they see as bargains on homes that can be turned into rentals. Metro areas with the biggest drops in for-sale signs include Sacramento and Orange County in California and the Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C.
The recent headlines give a mixed picture. On Monday, the Census Bureau reported that new home sales in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 464,000 units, down 33% from September 2007. The median sales price for new homes in September was $218,400, down 9% from a year earlier. Last week, the National Association of Realtors said sales of previously occupied homes in September edged up 1.4% from the depressed year-earlier level, the first such rise since November 2005, largely reflecting sales of foreclosed homes.
As if anyone didn't already know, housing prices in the Bay Area continue to fall. I wouldn't call it a free fall, but it has slowed. Bargain hunters and investors are starting to pick up the extra inventory and can only be considered a good thing.
Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- House prices in 20 U.S. cities declined at the fastest pace on record as foreclosures climbed before the credit crisis deepened this month.
The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index dropped 16.6 percent in August from a year earlier, as forecast, after a 16.3 percent decline in July. The gauge has fallen every month since January 2007, and year-over-year records began in 2001.
The decrease in property values, which helped boost sales last month to the highest level of the year, will probably intensify in coming months as the latest tightening of credit markets threatens to dry up mortgage financing. Prolonged price declines may push even more houses into foreclosure, weakening consumer spending and the economy.
``There's still quite a bit further for prices to go down, even though the volume has probably bottomed out,'' William Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock Financial Services Inc. in Boston, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. ``Prices will probably find a bottom sometime next year.''
Stocks rallied after yesterday's declines drove the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to the lowest level since March 2003. The S&P 500 rose 22.2, or 2.6 percent, to 871.2 as of 9:32 a.m. in New York. Treasuries fell, pushing yields higher. The benchmark 10- year note yielded 3.77 percent, up 9 basis points from yesterday.
Home prices decreased 1 percent in August from the prior month after declining 0.9 percent in July, the report showed. The figures aren't adjusted for seasonal effects so economists prefer to focus on year-over-year changes instead of month-to-month.
As Forecast
The economists forecast for the 20-city index was based on the median of 27 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from declines of 15.9 percent to 17.1 percent.
For a fifth consecutive month, all areas showed a decrease in prices in August compared with a year earlier, led by 31 percent declines in Phoenix and Las Vegas.
WASHINGTON (AP) — Sales of new homes recorded an unexpected increase in September as median home prices dropped to the lowest level in four years, the Commerce Department reported Monday.
Sales of new single-family homes rose by 2.7 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 464,000 homes, Commerce said. Economists had expected sales would drop from the August level.
The median price of a new home sold in September declined by 9.1 percent from a year ago to $218,400, the lowest price level since September 2004, a period when home prices were rising rapidly as the country experienced a five-year housing boom.
The surprising increase in September sales still left them 33.1 percent below the level of a year ago as the country is battered by the worst slump in housing in decades.
The report on a rise in new home sales followed news last week that sales of existing homes rose in September by 5.5 percent, the largest monthly gain in more than five years.
Analysts are not convinced that the sales increases are signaling a bottom for the housing market. They note that the September gains came before the latest upheavals in financial markets which have raised new worries about the overall state of the economy.
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WASHINGTON (AP) — Sales of existing homes rose by the largest amount in more than five years in September, a real estate trade group said Friday. The data is a possible glimmer of hope that the housing slump could be starting to bottom out.
The National Association of Realtors said Friday that sales of existing homes rose by 5.5 percent in September compared to August, the best showing since a 5.6 percent increase in July 2003, during the five-year housing boom.
Even with the gain in sales, prices kept falling. The median sales price has dropped to $191,600, down by 9 percent from a year ago.
Inventories of unsold existing homes dropped by 1.6 percent in September to 4.27 million units which would be a 9.9 months supply at the September sales pace, still a historically high level.
Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors, said a sales turnaround first seen in California was beginning to broaden to other regions of the country including Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri and Rhode Island.
He said housing may be starting to find a bottom but the turnaround could be aborted by the near-certainty that the country has fallen into a recession. For that reason, he said it was important for Congress to pass a second stimulus package including measures that would bolster the housing market.
