S.F. Real Estate Examiner - San Francisco Real Estate Market Update - Examiner.com

Lastly, the "know-it-alls" are those that might live in the area, aren't actively tracking the market, read a lot of publications and media, and just happen to "know the market is not good" based largely on what they're reading, but not experiencing. A common question from these types might be, "Is this a foreclosure sale?" What!? You must be kidding. Not only is this upsetting, but it is just plain bad. The media has created such a perception of our market that the sideline "know-it-all" thinks most homes on the market these days are foreclosures. We have news for you, most homes for sale in San Francisco are not foreclosure sales!

Although the majority of what is being reported is still, and always will be, bad news, the real news is that San Francisco is still doing just fine, and in our opinion remains a solid long term choice for real estate. The nominal declines in value we have seen should be music to many buyers ears, and will likely be short-lived. Information provided by sfnewsletter.

This is an example of the sort of thinking I'm referring to in my post below. This gent is practicing the sort of determined cheeriness that gives real estate (and used car) sales people a lousy name. Somebody who might "live in the the area...read a lot of publications and media..." is a "know it all." Welcome to the internet age, Alex, where agents no longer have a monopoly on market data and knowledge.

And let me tell you, pal, if you had seen foreclosures destroy property values in a San Francisco neighborhood as they have in mine, you wouldn't be whistling past these pocket graveyards so happily. And we have a word for those who constantly advise others to bet the farm (or their new 30 year fixed mortgage) on the proposition that SF will always be "doing just fine" - and that word is "Pollyanna." You might look it up. Even if it does make you a know it all to do so.

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SignOnSanDiego.com > News > State -- San Francisco voters endorse huge redevelopment project

SAN FRANCISCO – The city's largest redevelopment project since World War II got a major boost after voters overwhelmingly endorsed plans to build new homes, office space and possibly a football stadium in a long-neglected corner of San Francisco.

Sixty-one percent of city voters approved Measure G, which endorses developer Lennar Corp.'s plans for a $1.2 billion development project on 770 acres at the Hunters Point Shipyard and Candlestick Point in the southeastern part of San Francisco.

Since I live directly across the street from the Shipyard (and, in fact, over a thousand new homes are in the preliminary building stages there right now) my sadly battered home's value (down more than 45% from its early 2007 peak) and my own financial picture would welcome this development. However, given the snail's pace at which the current development has proceeded, and the questionable expectation of Lennar being able to peddle 10,000 new homes any time in the next decade, I wonder if it can actually get done.

There is a lot of magical thinking going on in SF biz and real estate circles to the effect that the San Francisco housing market can never go down. Like much of conventional wisdom about real estate, I wouldn't be much surprised to see it eventually revealed as rank stupidity.

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Home Prices Plunge Across California: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance

LOS ANGELES (AP) -- Median home prices plunged in many of California's most populous counties in February, with Southern California leading the slide with an overall drop of 17.9 percent compared to a year earlier, according to new housing data released Thursday.

The drops reflect a deepening housing crisis in the state, which saw home values soar during the housing boom then decline sharply in most areas.

Median home prices fell this year in 15 major counties, DataQuick Information Systems said.

...In the nine counties of the San Francisco Bay Area, the median price fell 11.6 percent to $548,000 compared to a year earlier and 17.6 percent from the region's peak median price of $665,000 last summer. Bay Area prices were essentially flat from January.

...

The nine San Francisco area counties saw a similar slowdown, as sales dropped 36.7 percent last month from February 2007.

Some 3,989 homes were sold in San Francisco, Marin, San Mateo, Napa, Alameda, Sonoma, Contra Costa, Santa Clara and Solano counties. That was up 11.2 percent from January.

I wouldn't get all hot and huffy over that month-to-month increase in sales, either. Go look up the term "dead cat bounce."

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