I occasionally get mail asking me why I am so downbeat on my own local market. I am a real estate sales agent, I am reminded. Am I not supposed to be an optimist? How can I sell real estate if I think real estate is potentially a disastrous investment?
Good questions. However, they don't really encompass my actual position. I don't think that real estate per se is a bad investment, but I do think that people have been buying local real estate by means of potentially disastrous methods.
I suppose a gung-ho agent would have no problems in selling a house to a buyer who would have to load up on an interest-only ARM that still sucked up seventy percent of his take-home income, leaving him teetering on the edge of disaster even if nothing should ever go wrong, and the economic situtation remains absolutely rosy as far as the eye can see.
I'm not that agent. There is something to be said for telling your clients "No, you can't afford that - unless you want to risk your credit, your kid's educations, your peace of mind, and your happiness all to move into a house you could lose in a heartbeat - along with everything else."
Thirty year fixed mortgage deals with decent down payments and income streams sufficient to service them can still be arragned for some people, although not very many in the San Francisco area. To put it bluntly, by sane standards, housing here is simply not, in general, affordable. For myself, I would rather spend my time putting together deals that let my clients sleep well at night, and permit me to look at myself in the mirror in the morning.
It's that simple.