Let's See What The Comparisons Look Like In January
Inman Real Estate News - Real estate sales slip for sixth straight month in S.F. region
Sales in the nine-county San Francisco Bay Area dropped for the sixth month in a row in September, while median prices for the region dropped 0.5 percent from August to September, according to a real estate research firm.The article goes on to say,
"The Bay Area real estate market seems to have settled into a steady state, with few indicators pointing to any upcoming change. Supply and demand seem stable. We are keeping an eye on rising mortgage interest rates which could slow things down somewhat before the end of the year," said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president.Never in the history of real estate sales have sales numbers steadily plummeted without pricing eventually following them on down. And to emphasize year-over-year pricing, when the baseline is pricing during the upward part of the price curve is deceptive, to say the least....Home sales dropped 17.9 percent in San Mateo County, 15.6 percent in Napa County, 12.9 percent in San Francisco County, 11.7 percent in Sonoma County, 9.1 percent in Alameda County, 6.1 percent in Santa Clara County, 1.8 percent in Solano and Marin counties, and 1.2 percent in Contra Costa County from September 2004 to September 2005, DataQuick reported.
Median home prices were up 24.9 percent in Sonoma County, 24.6 percent in Contra Costa County, 22.1 percent in Solano County, 20.6 percent in Alameda County and 20.1 percent in Napa county from September 2004 to September 2005. San Francisco County had the slightest Bay Area price increase at 7.8 percent during that period.
We'll see.
Comments
I looked at the dataquick numbers, and sales are down from last year in the Bay Area, but they haven't declined for six months in a row. According to dataquick, the past six months for Bay Area sales are:
Month 2005 Bay Area SF
January 7509 423
February 7463 475
March 11310 660
April 11158 681
May 11308 698
June 13014 723
July 11470 637
August 12154 662
September 11205 600
What is surprising to me is the median price for SF, which declined by 7% since the August peak of $776K to $721K. This the largest decline since Dec 2003, and the first time that prices have dropped for more than one month in a row.
I believe that prices will continue to go down in next months release of data, since I know of a couple of homes that sold/are likely to sell at a lower price than nearby comps sold just a month or two ago.
Posted by: bill | October 19, 2005 10:47 AM
DataQuick found the median sale price for a home in the city in August was $790,000, up 13 percent from August 2004.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/
article.cgi?f=/c/a/2005/09/15/
BUG8OENLE81.DTL&hw=median+san+francisco
+august+home+sales&sn=007&sc=197
This means in going from August to September, the mean pricing dropped 8.7%. In one month. The July median was $800,000 according to SFGate's article, citing Dataquick numbers. We are nearly 10% off that peak.
And don't forget these numbers reflect purchasing contracts a month prior, on average. That means the July peak was from contracts in June - when the 30yr fixed rate hit its most recent low point.
Its continuing down also, October will be under $700,000. What is happening is all the "second home speculators" that have turned the market into a feeding frenzy have turned tail and are dumping. The excess speculation demand has turned into excess speculation selling, and we're going to see a 15% correction before the year is out.
Posted by: Real Estate Blogger | October 19, 2005 02:31 PM
Marshall Prentice's comment that "The Bay Area real estate market seems to have settled into a steady state, with few indicators pointing to any upcoming change. Supply and demand seem stable." (partial quote from above)
Seems ominously similar to the famous remark of Economist Irving Fisher prior to the 1929 stock market crash that "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau."
Posted by: Richard Kerr | November 7, 2005 05:15 PM
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