Back when I worked for one of the fancy 24 hour news networks we use to joke that it didn't matter what we said if the Associated Press (AP) said otherwise. I could be standing in front of a burning building relying the details back to my bosses in New York, but if the AP reported the building wasn't on fire, then it wasn't on fire. Didn't matter I was staring straight into the flames.
With that said, I'm only to happy to report the AP is declaring the California's real estate market has hit bottom and the signs of a recovery are already underway.
Also in an effort not to upset the AP, who rightly or wrongly believes everyone is stealing their stories, I'll direct you to their story...
AP analysis: Foreclosures stabilize in key states
By MIKE SCHNEIDER and CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER (AP) – 6 hours ago
Even as Americans suffer rising unemployment, foreclosure rates in three states hit hardest by the housing bust — California, Arizona and Florida — stabilized in June, offering hope that the worst of the real estate crisis is over, according to The Associated Press' monthly analysis of economic stress in more than 3,100 U.S. counties.
The soon to be former head of Pacific Union has sent out to agents his impressions of the current market... Keep in mind this is the first time I've ever seen an Avram note, but I like it... If your a seller, read up, he's talking to you...
Across The Great Divide by Avram Goldman:
"Although average sales price has been increasing since the beginning of summer, it is once again showing a decreasing trend with the vast majority of sales under the million dollar mark.
The deep divide is reflected in Marin, which is one of the highest priced counties in the Bay Area. In July there were 1210 single family listings—621 under a million of which 38% of them were in escrow, 359 in the one to two million dollar range of which 19% were in escrow, and 230 over two million of which only 7% were in escrow. If you looked at all of the listings over one million, only 14.6% are in escrow or about one in seven listings.
There are many reasons why this could be occurring. Loans over the conforming limits are still more difficult to obtain, as lenders continue to require larger down payments, interest rates continue to be higher than conforming loans, and lender appraisals make for more challenging negotiations. Many sellers on the market are still testing the waters because either lower asking prices would put them under water or they think that their homes are unique and unusual, believing that buyers would be willing to overlook comparable homes that have sold for less. Today’s WSJ article confirms these observations.
As I tour new listings around the Bay Area, I find that only about 10% of these new listings over a million dollars have a real chance of selling at or near their asking prices. The others will wallow on the market, many having to reduce their prices until they finally have a willing buyer. Some sellers receive offers which they consider too low and they reject them. Ironically, over time the list price falls below the offer price. Had the seller taken the initial offer, they could have saved time, money, and stress.
Once such listing that I toured was on the market over a year ago at $2.5 mil. They were presented an offer of $2.2 mil. The seller felt it was too low, so they declined the offer. Subsequently they took their home off the market and rented it. Now the sellers have decided to put it back on the market once again, listing it for $1.9 mil. Unfortunately we see this pattern far too often.
The bulk of sales in most market places fall below the $700K mark. The vast majority of multiple offers are in the lower price ranges where there is strong activity for well priced homes such as the Berkeley 2 bedr./1ba. home listed at $495K receiving 15 offers or the Oakland 4bedr./4ba. home priced at $600K garnering 7 offers. First time buyers are excited by the price declines that have occurred over the last 2 years. As I have reported previously, many homes in the over million price range require more air to be let out of their prices. The upper end is not immune to price declines, it has just been slower in coming.
I want to make it clear that there are exceptions to all rules. There are still properties in the over million dollar range that are attracting multiple offers. These are usually homes in areas of great demand that are priced well and are staged impeccably.
Not every home in the lower price ranges is selling like hotcakes. There are many listings that sit as sellers and/or lenders have unrealistic price points or refuse to make the necessary repairs and/or stage in order to make these homes more appealing.
Although there are some positive trends in the economy, the housing market will continue to slog along. Homes will continue to sell, but only those that accommodate market realities. We will be selling more homes in the second half of this year over last year for the same period, with the bulk in the lower price ranges. The upper end will struggle until listing prices become more realistic, lenders are assured that values have stabilized and therefore willing to lend more freely, and more consumers begin to feel that the worst is behind us. It will happen; it is only a matter of time."
I came across this on the Business Week real estate blog.... It is without question as niche as you can go... Daniel Berman is selling himself as the vegetarian Realtor...
He says on his site that a vegetarian Realtor's beliefs make a difference in the way he conducts his business...
“Why would it matter that you, as a vegetarian, have a real estate agent who is also a vegetarian? Simply stated, it’s a matter of shared values, an approach to life and a way of relating to others. If you’ve been a vegetarian (or vegan) for any length of time, you know what I mean.”
I should probably point out this blog is vegetarian as well...
You can read more about Daniel at his site, click here.
And if nothing else, being the veggie Realtor did get him some free press
Pending home sales are up for the fifth consecutive month, the first time in six years for such a streak, according to the National Association of Realtors.
The Pending Home Sales Index,1 a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in June, rose 3.6 percent to 94.6 from an upwardly revised reading of 91.3 in May, and is 6.7 percent above June 2008 when it was 88.7. The last time there were five consecutive monthly gains was in July 2003.
If your a fan of lists, and who isn’t... I’m sure you’ll like this one...
The Natural Resource Defense Council put out its list of top ten cities of the future... What that means is this...
“Cities that are well-positioned for the future are making investments that will create healthier places to live and smarter environments for businesses. That's the basic premise of the Natural Resources Defense Council's Smarter Cities project, which ranks small, medium, and large cities every year based on a number of criteria from air quality to green space to standard of living.”
Making the list in order are:
1. Seattle
2. San Francisco
3. Portland
4. Oakland
5. San Jose
6. Austin
7. Sacramento
8. Boston
9. Denver
10. Chicago
Feel free to throw this one in while you’re driving clients around the City....
According to folks who claim to be in a position to know, I've been told if you're an agent at Pacific Union get ready to order new business cards and open house signs... I was told that the folks at Morgan Lane have decided to change to name, the news is forthcoming...
I have no idea who owns the website StyleCrave, but they’ve gone and created their own list of the ten most overpriced (oops!), I mean priciest homes in San Francisco... The list is getting pretty familiar, but if you haven’t seen it in while, it’s a good refresher....
Under the heading of rumors and gossip... Nick Cooper of McGuire Real Estate spotted having a private dinner in China Town with the current President of the California Association of Realtors, past president, current treasure and the next President of CAR when the questioned was posed to Mr. Cooper if he would be interested in the President’s position in the near future... He said he was... When and if remains he does become the Commander and Chief of the California Association of Realtors remains to be determined... I tell you all this, because I was sitting there when they asked... Thanks again to all the fine folks from CAR for a spectacular meal that I had to excuse myself from after the eight courses... (While making my way towards the door I was told the best part of dinner was yet to come.) One of those meals you never forget...
So for every one of you who has complained for years at every cocktail party I've attended that they wished they had bought real estate ten years ago, today is that day... Prices are at ten year lows in some cases, money is relatively cheap and as you've been telling your friends every fricken day, "We've been saving for years, we're just need the right moment." Today is that moment....
ZipRealty offered up the proof today I've been talking about for months...
The U.S. housing market continues to show signs of stabilization with the fifteenth consecutive month-over-month decline in the number of home listings, according to a monthly survey of home listings conducted by the national real estate brokerage ZipRealty conducted in 28 metropolitan markets where the brokerage operates.
The combined total number of single family homes and condos listed for sale according to Multiple Listing Service (MLS) data decreased in July by 2.5 percent compared to June, bringing the total number of active listings in 28 major U.S. markets to 679,748.
Additionally, ZipRealty tracked a year-over-year decrease in housing inventory of 28.5 percent. Factors such as declining inventory and strong activity from buyers may be contributing to rising asking prices, with the median list price increasing nationally last month and agents in California reporting an increase in the number of homes receiving multiple offers in several markets.
Following on the heels of my announcement it's time to buy, Zillow comes out supporting 100 percent...
Here's how they put it...
Key facts:
U.S. Home values fell 12.1 percent year-over-year, marking the 10th consecutive quarter of declines, however Q2 was the first quarter where national declines are not growing.
Total home sales fell 23.7 percent in June versus a year earlier. In the short term, total home sales rose 3.8 percent in June versus May.
Negative equity: More than one-fifth (23 percent) of all owners of single family homes with mortgages owe more on a mortgage than their home is currently worth.
Foreclosure re-sales made up 22 percent of all home sales in June.
Homes sold for loss: 29.2 percent of sellers sold homes in June for less than the previous purchase price.
Home values in the United States posted their 10th consecutive quarterly decline, falling 12.1 percent year-over-year to a Zillow Home Value Index(1) of $186,500, according to the second quarter Zillow Real Estate Market Reports(2). But for the first time since home values started to fall in 2007, the rate of year-over-year decline has shrunk slightly compared to the previous quarter, with home values falling 12.1 percent as opposed to 12.4 percent year-over-year in the first quarter. The Zillow Home Value Index measures the value of all homes in an area, and the Q2 Real Estate Market Reports encompass 161 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs).
Home values have flattened significantly in the short term, with the Zillow Home Value Index falling 2.7 percent from the first quarter to the second quarter, and falling only 0.9 percent from May to June.
Nationally, the total number of home sales in June fell 23.7 percent versus a year earlier. However, total home sales rose 3.8 percent in June versus May. Additionally, in 39 markets, home sales increased year over year. Some of these larger markets include Miami-Fort Lauderdale, Los Angeles and Phoenix.
Despite encouraging signs in some markets, distress signals tracked by Zillow remain high, suggesting that for most U.S. metropolitan areas the bottom of the market has not yet arrived, at least in terms of home values.
Negative equity(3) remains high, with 23 percent of all owners of single family homes with mortgages owing more on their mortgage than their home is currently worth, relatively flat compared to 22 percent in the first quarter. Foreclosure re-sales(4) made up more than one-fifth (22 percent) of all home sales nationally in June, and 29.2 percent of all homes sold in June were sold for less than what the owner originally paid.
Meanwhile, 29 percent of homeowners say they would be at least somewhat likely to put their home on the market if they see signs of a turnaround, according to Zillow's second quarter Homeowner Confidence Survey(5), signaling an abundance of potential shadow inventory waiting in the wings.
"While we are encouraged by the increasing sales in many markets and the overall improvement in the rate of decline of the Zillow Home Value Index, I hesitate to be overly optimistic for the near future," said Dr. Stan Humphries, Zillow chief economist. "There are still many hurdles to true market recovery. Foreclosure re-sales are buoying overall sales numbers, but their low prices are keeping home values down. Reports of increasing mortgage defaults signal that foreclosures are likely to increase again and peak in mid-2010. With increasing unemployment and high rates of negative equity, we have a fertile breeding ground for even more foreclosures, which add to the already-high level of for-sale inventory that needs to be cleared before values begin to rise.
"While the abundance of affordable foreclosure properties is a boon for many first-time homebuyers, I don't believe we'll see significant recovery until demand-side fundamentals improve, and more move-up and move-across buyers re-enter the market."
A real estate market bottom may be closer in some areas than in others. Eighteen of 142 declining MSAs have posted at least three consecutive quarters of smaller year-over-year home value declines, signaling a true trend. Nine of those markets are in California, where housing markets have been hard-hit by foreclosures and declining values. Those markets are:
Los Angeles MSA
Home values there have fallen 34.8 percent from the peak of the market in 2006.
Sales were up substantially in June, rising 11.4 percent compared to the same time last year.
The Zillow Home Value Index fell 14.9 percent, compared to 18.6 percent in the first quarter.
San Diego MSA
Home values have fallen 35.7 percent since the peak of the market in 2005.
Sales were up 9.7 percent year-over-year in June.
The Zillow Home Value Index fell 14.5 percent year-over-year in Q2, compared to 18.1 percent in Q1.
Stockton, Calif. MSA
Home values have fallen 60.9 percent since the market peaked in 2006.
In June, sales were down 12 percent year-over-year.
The Zillow Home Value Index fell 29.9 percent in the second quarter, compared to 32.9 percent in the first quarter.
Foreclosures continue to be an issue, however, with 69.2 percent of all sales in June being foreclosure re-sales.
Other California markets with three consecutive quarters of shrinking year-over-year declines are:
Oxnard MSA
Santa Rosa-Petaluma MSA
Modesto MSA
Vallejo-Fairfield MSA
Yuba City MSA
Napa MSA
It's not my best photographic work, for that you can thank my Blackberry, but point is the good folks at Pacific Union Greenbrae have moved on... found the trucks there this morning... Rumor has it the place was renting for a whooping $38,000 a month, but is back on the market at an even higher price...
I'm always amazed how fast they take down the signage.
According to the good folks at ForeclosureRadar, the foreclosure business is the great state of California isn't slowing....
Here's how the Wall Street Journal put it...
Lookout, below. California could get hit by a new wave of foreclosure sales.
Notices of default, which mark the first step in the foreclosure process, fell by 1.5% in July from June but increased by 12% from one year ago, according to ForeclosureRadar, which tracks California foreclosure sales.
Meanwhile, filings for notice of trustee sales, which show the number of properties scheduled for a foreclosure sale, increased by nearly 32% in July from June. New trustee sale notices, excluding those sales that have been canceled or already taken place, rose to a record level of nearly 125,000 in July, up 10% from one month ago and nearly double the levels during the 2008 foreclosure peak.
The increases in pre-foreclosure notices came after foreclosure auction sales fell by 23% in June, ending three straight months of increases. California had 17,000 foreclosure sales in July, a 40% drop from the July 2008 high. Nearly 45% of sales resulted in prices that were at least half of the original loan balance.
Located right by the Castro Theatre in the Eureka Gardens complex, this 1,868 square feet home is sophisticated and spacious. With two beds, two baths, fireplace in living room, deck and dining room with stainless steel appliances, it’s more than enough space for a small dinner party. It’s also got green factor with its bamboo floors. Bonus: Super close to MUNI, shops and restaurants. Check it out for yourself!
Sources who I have no reason to doubt have just told me the Morgan Lane name change is coming... The big catch, the adults in charge have decided to ditch the Morgan Lane name and go with Pacific Union... Being the responsible blogger that I am, I made a few calls... Another sources tells me the original agreement was for Pacific Union to become a franchise of Morgan Lane, but as one insider said, agreements in real estate fall like prices....
So if you know anything I don’t, drop me a note...
Others from around the Bay area telling the same story I reported last week; Morgan Lane is planing to take it's bride's name and go with Pacific Union... Got a few letters and even a call saying that come December the Morgan Lane name will be a thing of the past...
As always, if you know otherwise, leave me a note in the comments
According to the Zillow Q2 Homeowner Confidence Survey, homeowners are more optimistic than ever about the future values of their homes, with 81% of homeowners believing their own homes’ values will not decline in the next six months. Still, more than half (60%) of homeowners believe their own home lost value in the past 12 months. In reality, 83% of homes lost value during that time, according to Zillow’s Q2 Real Estate Market Reports.
I can tell you first hand that my house is still dropping in value.
I'm in the SEVENTH my of refinancing my house and between the first and second appraisals the value dropped roughly $30,000... Yes, banks now require two appraisals... Once all the papers are signed, do I have a story to tell
It’s the perfect condo for working professionals. Located right along the Embarcadero, it’s in the center of everything – from downtown shopping to the Ferry Building’s farmers market. The pad includes your very own walk-in closet, upgraded steel fixtures and custom bamboo floors (for that healthy green glow). Swing by for a quick peak and then enjoy a yummy weekend brunch downstairs along the waterfront.
This has to be one of the great dumb ideas of all time... A new website, National BLS helps connect sellers and buyers because there’s no one already doing it? Last time I checked there were about a 10,000 agents offering access to the MLS on their sites... Not to mention realtor.com redfin.com and the hundreds of MLS direct sites....
Here's what makes BLS such a stand out in the stupid category...
The idea is to make a site where sellers can find buyers to make them an offer... Hate to break the news to the sellers, but IT’S A BUYERS’ MARKET....
Quoting an article the BLS website....
“NationalBLS is the first national listing service of pre-approved residential real estate buyers. It's a marketplace where buyers anonymously post their requirements to the web and receive offers from eager sellers. It's real estate in reverse.”
Seems to me real estate has been working fine in forward, why go in reverse?
Not only are the folks at National BLS under the impression it’s a sellers’ market, they also believe finding a real estate agent is a challenge....
Even better the company charges for its services....
Here’s a link to the article, but if you’re looking for a good agent, give me a shout I know plenty of them...
Better yet, just call Nick Cooper with McGuire Real Estate (415.233.2911), he can hook ya with someone he trusts, or Nick himself... Nick Cooper is the new black, just ask the folks at C.A.R.
I've been saying it for months... We've hit bottom and things will be picking up... I think it was June that I predicted the big turn around... The June numbers are out today, and here are the highlights from the S&P Case-Shiller report...
San Francisco/Bay Area up 3.8% May to June - still down 22% over one year
Of the twenty cities the report tracks, only Detroit and Las Vegas we still looking at declining prices
Dallas and Denver have reported four consecutive months of positive returns
The top twenty cities combined has a price increase from May to June of 1.4%
Highlights of C.A.R.’s resale housing figures for July 2009:
. C.A.R.’s Unsold Inventory Index for existing, single-family detached homes in July 2009 was 3.9 months, compared with 6.9 months (revised) for the same period a year ago. The index indicates the number of months needed to deplete the supply of homes on the market at the current sales rate.
. Thirty-year fixed-mortgage interest rates averaged 5.22 percent during July 2009, compared with 6.43 percent in July 2008, according to Freddie Mac. Adjustable-mortgage interest rates averaged 4.82 percent in July 2009, compared with 5.24 percent in July 2008.
. The median number of days it took to sell a single-family home was 39.9 days in July 2009, compared with 47.8 days (revised) for the same period a year ago.
Regional MLS sales and price information are contained in the tables that accompany this press release. Regional sales data are not adjusted to account for seasonal factors that can influence home sales. The MLS median price and sales data for detached homes are generated from a survey of more than 90 associations of REALTORS throughout the state. MLS median price and sales data for condominiums are based on a survey of more than 60 associations. The median price for both detached homes and condominiums represents closed escrow sales.
In a separate report covering more localized statistics generated by C.A.R. and DataQuick Information Systems, 23 of the 398 cities and communities reporting showed an increase in their
respective median home prices from a year ago. DataQuick statistics are based on county records data rather than MLS information. DataQuick Information Systems is a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates. (The lists are generated for incorporated cities with a minimum of 30 recorded sales in the month.)
Note: Large changes in local median home prices typically indicate both local home price appreciation, and often, large shifts in the composition of housing market activity. Some of the variations in median home prices for July may be exaggerated due to compositional changes in housing demand. The DataQuick tables listing median home prices in California cities and counties are accessible through
Statewide, the 10 cities with the highest median home prices in California during July 2009 were: Los Altos, $1,425,500; Palo Alto, $1,363,000; Saratoga, $1,350,000; Newport Beach, $1,300,000; Manhattan Beach, $1,257,500; Burlingame, $1,250,000; Palos Verdes Estates, $1,132,000; Los Gatos, $1,085,000; Cupertino, $952,000; and Rancho Palos Verdes $945,000.
Statewide, the cities with the greatest median home price increases in July 2009 compared with the same period a year ago were: Laguna Hills, 40.5 percent; Newport Beach, 13.5 percent; Moorpark, 11.2 percent; Poway, 10.8 percent; San Marcos, 8.6 percent; Emeryville, 7.6 percent; Santa Barbara, 6.3 percent; Arcadia, 5.8 percent; Big Bear Lake, 5.5 percent; and West Hollywood, 5 percent.
Have we hit bottom in the San Francisco real estate market? We explore the state of the real estate market in the San Francisco Bay Area: where are the hot areas? Are we trending up or down?
This video includes interviews with San Francisco and Marin County real estate agents, as well as footage from San Francisco, Mill Valley, Noe Valley and the East Bay.
For years I've had to listen to Marin residents tell me Marin County was the most expensive real estate in America... Sort of a nutty story, but one they love to spread...
So today America's magazine of lists, Forbes put out their list of America's most expensive ZIP codes... Yep, nothing from Marin in the top ten... So lets put the story to rest today...
Here are the top ten, but the articles (click here) goes through the top 100
If you like the idea of reading, and reading something somewhat related to what you do for a living, my choice of the month is “Busted”
It’s told first person by the NY Times financial writer who got himself caught up in the mortgage mess...
The book is surprisingly good consider how bad the reviews are.... It offers good insight into how the mess began and who someone, in this case the writer, got caught up in the whole mess...
Here’s a synopsis from Publishers Weekly
Starred Review. As I write in February 2009, I am four months past due on my mortgage and bracing for foreclosure proceedings to begin. Thus begins this cautionary and critical examination of the housing crisis, a story that turned personal when New York Times economics reporter Andrews got caught up in the housing bubble after falling in love with a woman and a house. Bringing in $120,000 a year in salary—most of which went to child support and alimony to his ex-wife, Andrews says he was able to get a don't ask, don't tell mortgage with the assumption that his new wife, Patty, would be able to get a job to keep them afloat, an expectation that didn't work out as planned. Because of his economics journalism background, Andrews says he should have avoided the mortgage catastrophe, and he castigates himself as well as fellow borrowers, the financial industry that took advantage of them and a government that didn't put the brakes on the crisis that many economists warned about but that Alan Greenspan, the Bush administration and others ignored. This deeply personal exposé is timely and sobering in its candor.
Online real estate broker Redfin today
announced the availability of the Redfin App on the App Store. The app lets
iPhone and iPod touch users view homes for sale on the Multiple Listing
Services (MLS) and upload photos and notes from a home tour to Redfin's
real-estate search site.
A Fast, Full-Featured Real-Estate Application for iPhone and iPod touch
Built by the team that coded Redfin's search website, the Redfin App delivers
a complete search experience built from the ground up to run fast and work
well on the iPhone and iPod touch. Users can locate nearby listings or open
houses using location-based services or search any neighborhood by name or
postal code, filtering the search by property type, square footage or the
number of bedrooms and bathrooms.
The Redfin App displays listings quickly using Google Maps, and includes every
photo and feature of the listing, all in a native format that loads quickly
and supports easy, gestured-based navigation using Apple's Multi-Touch user
interface.
Another reason as a real estate agent you to do more than offer MLS access...
