Now before any of you call me a Trulia fanboy, I just want to point out that anyone is welcome to email me with information of ideas worthy of mentioning here... Trulia's just good at what they do...

The folks at the San Francisco based company recently added to the Voice's section help for those dealing with the not so great real estate conditions of late...

have a look, you just might find some answers

I have to say here in the City there is one website I can find no supporters of... that being Zillow.

Agents always have reasons why they hate the site from misleading prices to bad information about homes.

But if you’re looking for a reason to celebrate Zillow, the folks over at San Francisco based CNET, the tech website have chosen Zillow as one of the most likely to collapse in the economic fallout...

Here’s what CNET had to say...

“The real-estate site's revenue model is advertising. Real estate and bank advertising. Unless the real-estate research site starts charging for foreclosure listings, I don't see it doing too well in a hunkered-down economy, in which people are trying to hold on to their homes for dear life, not upgrade.”

It seems no matter the agent, whenever I tell ‘em about Zillow’s potential woes, they always respond with the same answer... “Good!”

Love to hear the other reasons everyone dislike the site so much...

Payton vs John

47 Liberty, Sausalito, California from Jeff Brooks on Vimeo.

Found a press release this morning for a new websites called Homethinking that allows potential buyers moving from one city to another to compare neighborhoods. In my test of the site here's the single best thing I learned about San Francisco.

If I was moving from the Downtown North neighborhood in Palo Alto the closest match here in the City would be one of three places.... Haight-Ashbury, Downtown or the Marina... Now if someone could tell me what Haight-Ashbury, Downtown and the Marina have in common I would be thrilled.

The site also allows offers up basic information about agents with the click of a button.
For David Bellings of Coldwell Banker here’s what Homethinking had to say...

Have a look at the site and let me know what you think...

The California Association of Realtors or CAR announced today prices here in San Francisco along with the rest of the state wide will continue to fall... CAR also expected the volume of homes sales to climb to 12.5%... Nothing wrong with that...

California Realtors forecast lower home prices, rising sales in 2009

Home prices across the state will continue to drop next year, even as sales, spurred by the low prices on foreclosed properties, will keep rising in 2009, according to a California Assn. of Realtors forecast slated to be released today.

Doubts about the stability of the nation's financial markets are likely to linger through the middle of next year, compounded by worries about the difficulty of obtaining mortgages for homes in the state's higher-priced areas.

"We're not in a 'happy days are here again' scenario," said Leslie Appleton-Young, CAR's chief economist.

The trade group expects the economy will reach its weakest point during the next three quarters, then begin a turnaround in the second half of next year. The pace at which foreclosed properties sell will be a key factor in the rebound.

The volume of home sales is expected to climb 12.5% to 445,000 units in 2009, an uptick from the 12% increase expected this year. Sales tumbled 26% in 2007, the lowest level since the market slide began.

Home purchases in the Inland Empire -- which increased 143% in August from the year before -- are driving the improved sales picture. Much of that inventory was foreclosed properties.

CAR projects that the median price of an existing California home will decline 6% to $358,000 in 2009. That's a smaller drop than the association is anticipating for this year, which looks to bring a 32% decline. The median price -- the point at which half the homes sell for more and half for less -- peaked in 2007 at about $558,000.

Click here for the complete story

Home Prices Seem Far From Bottom

The American housing market, where the global economic crisis began, is far from hitting bottom.

Home prices across much of the country are likely to fall through late 2009, economists say, and in some markets the trend could last even longer depending on the severity of the anticipated recession.

In hard-hit areas like California, Florida and Arizona, the grim calculus is the same: More and more homes are going up for sale, but fewer and fewer people are willing or able to buy them.

Adding to the worries nationwide are rising unemployment, falling wages and escalating mortgage rates — all of which will reduce the already diminished pool of would-be buyers.

“The No. 1 thing that drives housing values is incomes,” said Todd Sinai, an associate professor of real estate at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. “When incomes fall, demand for housing falls.”

Despite the government’s move to bolster the banking industry, home loan rates rose again on Tuesday, reflecting concern that the Treasury will borrow heavily to finance the rescue.

On Wednesday, the average rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages was 6.75 percent, up from 6.06 percent last week. While banks are moving aggressively to sell foreclosed properties, the number of empty homes is hovering near its highest level in more than half a century.

Click here for the complete story...

Classic Victorian single family home- just listed!

Single family home just listed in Lower Pacific Heights. Great retreat for those who enjoy being in the city but need some quiet time too. It’s a two level luxury Victorian with a top floor view of the city. This gorgeous home comes with three bedrooms and three full baths. Home is decorated with Brazilian cherry hardwood floors. My fav! And last but not least, finished off with marble and granite
materials.

click here for the complete listing...

Housing starts and permits for new home construction fell sharply again in September, with requests for new building permits falling to levels not seen since the recession of the early 1980s.

The slump in the housing and real estate industries is a central component of the global financial crisis, with falling home values and rising default rates leaving banks worldwide saddled with bad or questionable loans. It has also helped contribute to a broader decline in economic activity.

New monthly data released by the federal government today indicate that the housing downturn continues to deepen.

Housing starts fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 817,000, a 6.3 percent decline from the month before and more than 31 percent below September of a year before.

It is the lowest monthly rate for home starts since January 1991.

I wanted to introduce today's guest blogger, Nick Cooper...
He is without question one of the most ethical and respectable real estate agents you'll ever meet...
He works in Marin and offers his perspective on the Marin market...
He's with Vision Real Estate in Corte Madera and can be reached at 415.233.2911

(guest bloggers are always welcome)

State of the Marin Market:

At every social gathering I attend, people ask me the same question - How is the market? In Marin, it is very difficult to give a one line answer. I sell in Marin from the south to the north and from entry level to high end. Each sector of the market is completely different and appears to be changing by the day. You can look at numbers all you want, but what's really driving these specific markets is the word on the street, which I will give you now.

- Now, more than ever, price is king - Doesn't matter how 'gorgeous' your property is; it has to be priced right.
- Buyers and agents have finally realized the real deals are REOs and short sales - Those priced under 200K (In Novato and San Rafael) are receiving multiple offers and going very quickly - We are hoping this 'frenzy' is a sign that we have hit the bottom of the market in the entry level sector in Marin.
- High end has slowed down and we are seeing lots of price reductions.
- High end in Novato is dead.
- It is a difficult time to be selling a basic 3/2 home in Novato and San Rafael, because they are in competition with short sales and REOs, meaning you can now find a house in Marinwood for less than 700K and house in Novato for less than 600K.
- No such thing as a 30 day COE - Close dates are rarely honored, because of banks taking more time and buyers wanting to wait for their stocks to go up (how long will that be??).
- Now more than ever a celebration should not be had until the loan has funded and title has transferred and been recorded - Every deal is shaky these days.
- Everyone is stressed out - Mortgage brokers, agents and title officers so watch out!

Of course, remember - If you are a buyer you have all the power - Ask for what you want, within reason.

Nick

Last week I talked about problems at Zillow connected to the downturn in real estate... Rumors were that the economy was not only effecting agents, but some of the big real estate related websites... Over the weekend Zillow announced it would be laying off 25 percent of its staff... today I read that Redfin is laying off 20 percent of its staff... I don't care how anyone feels personally about Zillow, and I know its not popular amongst agents, but it sucks when anyone loses their job... no doubt more industry related layoffs are coming...

Layoffs at Zillow, Redfin: ''We're headed for a big dip.''

Zillow.com and Redfin.com, rapidly growing web-based real estate companies, both announced major layoffs this week amid a weakening housing market and what Zillow says could be a "prolonged recession."

Zillow, the Seattle-based website that estimates home values, said it will slash its workforce by 25% in hopes of surviving what it calls "a major economic storm." From a blog post by Zillow CEO Rich Barton:

The unprecedented economic events that are playing out on a global stage began in our own industry and have made a prolonged recession likely, in our judgment. We are a young company that is not yet making a profit. Despite having sizeable cash reserves, we deemed the responsible course was to meaningfully reduce expenses, so that Zillow emerges from the other side of the recession in a very strong position, even if the recession lasts many years.

Earlier in the week, Redfin, the discount brokerage and listings website featured frequently on this blog as a source of information, announced it was laying off roughly 20% of its employees. From a blog post by Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman:

Today Redfin laid off roughly 20% of our employees.

click here for the complete story...

photo credit:Real Estate Convergence

Who hasn't had a conversation with a friend outside of California where you aren't asked to explain why for 1.2 million dollars you get a house with no yard and a roof that leaks.. most of my friends in Denver love to point out for what I paid I could buy an entire city block in Denver...

This week though the NY Times has taken the sting out of the process for me with their weekly installment of, "What You Get for..."

The NY Times looks at, What do you get for 1.2 million... they compare San Rafael, West Stockbridge, Massachusetts and Gulfport, Mississippi.

Have a look...

When it comes to the housing collapse there's a lot of blame to go around... An no one person or group to hold responsible, but when folks are picketing the Mortgage Banker's Convention here in the City I get the feeling there's a lot of misplaced anger... If the point of the protest was to get some press coverage, mission accomplished, but probably not much else....

Protest greets mortgage bankers meeting in S.F.

In a city that beckons and thrives on tourism and conventions, mortgage brokers may be San Francisco's least popular visitors in recent memory.

A noisy but contained protest greeted delegates to the Mortgage Bankers Association's 95th annual convention, which began Monday at Moscone Center, as the real estate finance industry is tarred by association with a housing market that's collapsed like a deck of cards along with the financial strife that followed.

A wave of financial grief has spread across the United States and far beyond as homeowners are unable to pay spiking variable mortgages and are losing homes to foreclosure. Financial institutions, as a result, lost their shirts on bundled toxic mortgage investments. And stocks have plummeted, retirement accounts losing 35 percent of their value and counting.

Add it all together, and you have some unpopular tourists in San Francisco this week.

The resulting consumer anger was palpable Monday morning when about 40 protesters greeted some of the early attendees of the mortgage bankers' gathering. Marching before the conference center, they carried signs saying "Jail them, don't bail them" and "Grand theft bailout." A steady stream of slogans and chanting accompanied the signs, laying blame at the gathered industry.

Around downtown, as the conference got under way, passers-by said they thought that greed is the root of the crisis, which has spread globally.

click here for the complete story...

I always like to look at the Los Angles housing market to see how the other half lives... According to the LA Times homes sales are booming but, prices are down 33 percent from a year ago... At least they're buying and it's a good indication money is changing hands.... Agents I've spoken to here in the Bay Area tell me the only thing really selling these days is foreclosures, short sales and all cash deals... if you have a second feel free to leave your thoughts on what's selling...

Southern California home prices continue to slide

Don't count on that housing recovery any time soon.

Southland home prices tumbled again in September, according to data released Monday, continuing a trend that began 14 months ago and bringing median values down 39% below their peak last year.

What's more, the September sales figures reflect many homes that went into escrow in July or August -- before the financial crisis rattled nerves, depleted the investment savings of millions of Americans and cast fresh doubts about the economy's strength.

"Buying a home is a big decision, and it's not one you want to make when you're not sure where prices are headed," said UC Berkeley economist Thomas Davidoff. "Now a lot of people are facing unemployment, so there's the risk they'll lose their income and not be able to make their payments."

The median Southern California home sale price was $308,500 in September, down 7% from August and 33% from a year ago, according to real estate research firm MDA DataQuick.

More homes were trading hands, with last month's sales total 65% higher than a year ago. But MDA DataQuick President John Walsh noted that the figures were recorded "before the dramatic worsening of the nation's economic crisis in recent weeks."

click here for the complete story...

In my ongoing effort to find good news about the real estate market I turn today to Reuters via Forbes magazine and the Wall Street Journal... I know I've said it before, but for me it doesn't matter why a home sells as long as it sells... Yes, there's no getting around it, foreclosed properties are hot, but getting the excess inventory off the market is nothing but good... read for your self

San Francisco-area home sales jump 45 pct in Sept

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Home sales in the San Francisco Bay area rose 45 percent in September from weak levels a year earlier, as home prices sagged and buying surged in lower-priced communities, a report released Tuesday said.

MDA DataQuick, real estate information service, said it was the best year-over-year gain in six years. Sales in September 2007 had hit the lowest level for any September since 1988, when MDA DataQuick began keeping records.

A total of 7,271 new and resale houses and condominiums sold last month in the nine-county region, marking a 0.5 percent uptick from August. The median sales price fell 36 percent from a year earlier to a five-year low of $400,000, MDA DataQuick said.

Nearly 42 percent of all existing homes sold in the region last month had been foreclosed on at some point in the prior 12 months, up from 36.1 percent in August and from 6.9 percent a year earlier.

click here for the complete story...

California Home Sales Revive, But Not Without Intense Pain

LOS BANOS, Calif. -- In this California city, one of the hardest hit in the national housing crash, there's good news: Homes are starting to sell again.

Investors and first-time home buyers are snapping up foreclosed houses here, with the number of local sales up almost fivefold from this time last year. While the volume of existing-home sales across the U.S. fell 10.7% in August from the previous year, according to the National Association of Realtors, there are signs that the most damaged of markets are starting to heal themselves. Across hard-hit California, sales volumes rose 65% in September compared with a year ago, said MDA DataQuick, a San Diego-based real-estate information service.

click here for the complete story...

WASHINGTON (AP) — Sales of existing homes rose by the largest amount in more than five years in September, a real estate trade group said Friday. The data is a possible glimmer of hope that the housing slump could be starting to bottom out.

The National Association of Realtors said Friday that sales of existing homes rose by 5.5 percent in September compared to August, the best showing since a 5.6 percent increase in July 2003, during the five-year housing boom.

Even with the gain in sales, prices kept falling. The median sales price has dropped to $191,600, down by 9 percent from a year ago.

Inventories of unsold existing homes dropped by 1.6 percent in September to 4.27 million units which would be a 9.9 months supply at the September sales pace, still a historically high level.

Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the Realtors, said a sales turnaround first seen in California was beginning to broaden to other regions of the country including Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri and Rhode Island.

He said housing may be starting to find a bottom but the turnaround could be aborted by the near-certainty that the country has fallen into a recession. For that reason, he said it was important for Congress to pass a second stimulus package including measures that would bolster the housing market.

Click here for the complete story...

Spanish Mediterranean home just listed!

Just listed in SF- luxurious Spanish Mediterranean home! Great for
single families. Comes with 3 bedrooms and 1.5 baths along with bonus
room, den, laundry room and a huge pantry. And if you love to cook,
they've got a huge kitchen with dishwasher, double oven (self-cleaning),
garbage disposal and a trash compactor! Doesn't that make things a lot
easier? Come take a look today! Just listed right below $1.4 million.

click here for the complete listing...

WASHINGTON (AP) — Sales of new homes recorded an unexpected increase in September as median home prices dropped to the lowest level in four years, the Commerce Department reported Monday.

Sales of new single-family homes rose by 2.7 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 464,000 homes, Commerce said. Economists had expected sales would drop from the August level.

The median price of a new home sold in September declined by 9.1 percent from a year ago to $218,400, the lowest price level since September 2004, a period when home prices were rising rapidly as the country experienced a five-year housing boom.

The surprising increase in September sales still left them 33.1 percent below the level of a year ago as the country is battered by the worst slump in housing in decades.

The report on a rise in new home sales followed news last week that sales of existing homes rose in September by 5.5 percent, the largest monthly gain in more than five years.

Analysts are not convinced that the sales increases are signaling a bottom for the housing market. They note that the September gains came before the latest upheavals in financial markets which have raised new worries about the overall state of the economy.

click here for the complete story....

As if anyone didn't already know, housing prices in the Bay Area continue to fall. I wouldn't call it a free fall, but it has slowed. Bargain hunters and investors are starting to pick up the extra inventory and can only be considered a good thing.

Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Fell From Year Ago

Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- House prices in 20 U.S. cities declined at the fastest pace on record as foreclosures climbed before the credit crisis deepened this month.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index dropped 16.6 percent in August from a year earlier, as forecast, after a 16.3 percent decline in July. The gauge has fallen every month since January 2007, and year-over-year records began in 2001.

The decrease in property values, which helped boost sales last month to the highest level of the year, will probably intensify in coming months as the latest tightening of credit markets threatens to dry up mortgage financing. Prolonged price declines may push even more houses into foreclosure, weakening consumer spending and the economy.

``There's still quite a bit further for prices to go down, even though the volume has probably bottomed out,'' William Cheney, chief economist at John Hancock Financial Services Inc. in Boston, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. ``Prices will probably find a bottom sometime next year.''

Stocks rallied after yesterday's declines drove the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to the lowest level since March 2003. The S&P 500 rose 22.2, or 2.6 percent, to 871.2 as of 9:32 a.m. in New York. Treasuries fell, pushing yields higher. The benchmark 10- year note yielded 3.77 percent, up 9 basis points from yesterday.

Home prices decreased 1 percent in August from the prior month after declining 0.9 percent in July, the report showed. The figures aren't adjusted for seasonal effects so economists prefer to focus on year-over-year changes instead of month-to-month.

As Forecast

The economists forecast for the 20-city index was based on the median of 27 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Projections ranged from declines of 15.9 percent to 17.1 percent.

For a fifth consecutive month, all areas showed a decrease in prices in August compared with a year earlier, led by 31 percent declines in Phoenix and Las Vegas.

click here for the complete details...

Heading into the slower holiday months of November and December things are shaping up for a better next year... Less homes on the market, lower prices and if the experts are right, a lot of folks here in the Bay Area withdrew a ton of cash from the markets and might be looking for somewhere to invest... Obviously, hard to say... the City agents I've been speaking with confirm that cash is still king...

So where has all the excess inventory gone, ask the Wall Street Journal...

Bargain Hunters Help Shrink Housing Glut

Lower home prices are luring some buyers back into the U.S. housing market, but foreclosures and a weakening economy are likely to keep downward pressure on prices for at least another year, economists say.

A quarterly Wall Street Journal survey of housing data in 28 major metro areas shows that the glut of unsold homes listed for sale is shrinking in most of them. In many cases, sales have been stimulated by investors who are grabbing what they see as bargains on homes that can be turned into rentals. Metro areas with the biggest drops in for-sale signs include Sacramento and Orange County in California and the Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C.

The recent headlines give a mixed picture. On Monday, the Census Bureau reported that new home sales in September were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 464,000 units, down 33% from September 2007. The median sales price for new homes in September was $218,400, down 9% from a year earlier. Last week, the National Association of Realtors said sales of previously occupied homes in September edged up 1.4% from the depressed year-earlier level, the first such rise since November 2005, largely reflecting sales of foreclosed homes.

Click here for the complete story...

Once again Zillow is out with another survey that asks homeowners about the value of their homes... And somehow seventy five percent of Americans DON'T believe their home's value has decreased in the past year.

The best finding in the survey was that those who planed to voter for John McCain on Nov. 4 "were slightly less realistic about their own homes' values." Zillow's words not mine.

I have no explanation for how any of this possible, but here's Zillow's version of events...

Months of government bailouts and stock market volatility brought Americans' perception of the values of their own homes closer to reality than it was last quarter, but surprisingly half of U.S. homeowners still believe their home is insulated from the nation's home value declines, according to the Zillow Q3 Homeowner Confidence Survey.

This quarter, 49 percent of homeowners said they think their own home's value has increased or stayed the same over the past year. However, nearly three-quarters (74 percent) of homes have lost value in the past 12 months, according to preliminary analysis of Zillow's Q3 Real Estate Market Reports, which will be released Nov. 12.

Perception-Reality Gap Shrinks in Third Quarter, but Many Still Show "Not My Home" Sentiment

Homeowners are not quite as confident as they were in the second quarter, when 62 percent said their homes either increased in value or remained the same, but a significant gap between the reality of home values and homeowners' perceptions persists. This is despite the timing of the survey - it was fielded from Oct. 7 to 9, during the worst week in stock market history.

Zillow's Home Value Misperception Index(2), which measures homeowners' perceptions of their home's value over time, shrank to 16 in the third quarter from 32 in the second quarter. An index of zero would mean homeowners' perceptions were in line with actual values.

Homeowners in the South and West had the most accurate perceptions of home values. In the South, where 67 percent of homes decreased in value, the Misperception Index was 13. In the West, where 85 percent of homes declined in value, the Misperception Index was also 13. Northeasterners' perceptions were most out of line with reality: 71 percent of homes there lost value, and the Misperception Index was 20.

Click here for all the survey results

Whether you’ve notice or not, Forbes.com loves lists... Their almost daily effort to attraction attention to their website has once again paid off... Today they released, “Real estate markets most likely to rebound.”

San Francisco came in second for commercial real estate. Seattle took the top spot.

Quoting Forbes.com...

“San Francisco comes in second with a 6.12. The City by the Bay learned from the tech crash of 2001 not to overbuild. There is a reasonable supply of office and apartment space, which should limit vacancies. San Francisco's port is also expected to help the city during the downturn as Americans continue to rely on Asian imports.”


Click here if you’re looking for the complete story...

Oceanfront home in SF!

This just listed on Trulia a few days ago. 3 bed, 1 bath single family home in the outer sunset. A brief hip and a hop over to the beach. No one will block your view of the sunset except for the fog itself! Built in the late 40s, this home not only has breathtaking ocean views, but also hardwood floors, brick fireplace for those upcoming chilly nights and a kitchen with great lighting. Also a great location if you enjoy long, frequent walks on the beach. Come take a look today!

Click here for all the details...