Photos have become in my mind the single biggest factor in getting folks out to see a property... Your photos wind up on websites, the MLS, your flyers, Realtor.com and Craig’s list....
I’ll be the first to admit you’re not going to sell a home based on the photos, but I can tell you for a fact you can convince someone NOT to see a home based on the photos...
So if you insist on doing it yourself, promise me you’ll take these two tiny steps...
Stop taking photos in the bathroom where I can see you and your flash in the mirror.
Stop taking photos of toilets.
Ever wonder where all the housing figures come from these days? You
know the ones: prices are down, things are selling and the market is
headed this way or that way...
Seems the source of the info is the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices.
The is a site packed with facts and figures about the top twenty
housing
markets, including San Francisco.
It's a site worth checking out... It includes plenty of charts, podcasts,
and video reports you can download or watch on your iPod. Most of the
information you'll want will be on the right side of the main page. Just
click on the "index news button" and you'll find the housing information.
If anyone has any other good sites, I'd love to hear about them
According to CNNMoney.com THE seismic shift has occurred...Yep, all is well in the housing market. And CNNMoney has even declared now the best time to buy in four years, making it a buyer’s market...
Is it official?
Who does get to decide if it’s a buyer’s market or a seller’s market... I guess we could all wait around till the papers declare a winner, but it’s long been on my list of things to do...I want to be that person who gets the decide! Why not, after all?
So for now I feel comfortable saying stating it’s not a sellers’ market.
Certainly there hasn’t been much good news about the real estate market of late, but if prices are really continuing to fall, and the much talked about interest race do come down, will it be a buyer’s market?
So I’m turning to those of you who work the trenches to see if there is any sense where things are headed.
Our Editor in Chief Bill Quick dropped me a note with a release he thought the readers might find of interest...
Somethings are best left to the messenger... In their own words, Tech CU’s that is...
“There's been so much negative press about ARMs that one would think they're poison, but there are lenders out there that have successful loan portfolios, which include ARMs. And, they're still offering them.
Tech CU (a $1.3 billion credit union with a loan portfolio size of approximately $732,000,000 here in the Bay Area) for example, has just raised their conforming limit to $850K for the 6-month, 1-year and 3-year ARM (no one else has done this that we’re aware of).
Tech CU's loan portfolio has remained strong throughout the last year because the credit union didn't delve into risky loans and though the Tech CU is approved by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to sell loans in the secondary market, in the past few years they have kept most mortgage loans for their own portfolio.
With so many consumers being affected by the further credit tightening, many people think that they simply can't get financed on a new mortgage or re-financed on their existing one. That's just not the case.
There are still community banks and credit unions that are aggressively lending both on first mortgages and HELOCs here. The fact that they are local (with local underwriting decision-making affects the speed and flexibility they have for making loan approvals, etc.)
(Tech CU has also introduced an aggressive HELOC with an introductory rate of 5.5%.)
So, there are lenders out there who are continuing to offer both ARMs and refinancing (on jumbo loans). It's just a matter of finding who they are. Of course, with companies like Tech CU, the buyer/borrower must hast a good FICO score and credit history.”
We've all seen and read the news... Foreclosures have hit an all time
high, home sales are slowing and property prices continue to slide...
No getting around it, things are a mess... Now the government is
coming up with endless plans to slow foreclosures, keep folks in the
homes and, without saying so, prop up housing prices.
Consumers spend when they feel wealthy, and nothing makes a consumer feel
better about finances like rising home prices.
But I am a firm believer in free markets and Darwinism so I wonder should we
be rescuing the housing marketing? Because isn't the government interventions
really just a short term solution that will do more harm than good?
Part of what brought the government involvement, not only in San Francisco,
but elsewhere was that housing prices were at the point were more buyers were priced
out... Yes, adjustable rate mortgages take some of the blame, but it
was buyers desperate to make any deal to get into an overpriced home
they thought would never go anywhere but up....So now prices are
falling... Whether that's through foreclosure or short sales, it seems
it's the market's way of naturally correcting itself.
So I ask you, does the real estate market need a hand out or a does of
tough love?
Sure, there are pockets of pain around the US, but it's not as if most Americans are losing their homes. More than 99% of homes aren't in foreclosure.
There's a bleakly humorous saying to the effect that a recession is when your neighbor loses his job, and a depression is when you do.
A similar equation is at work in the real estate biz: for those of us who are either in, or threatened with, foreclosure, or who have seen our next-door-neighbor's foreclosure drop our own home's value by 25-30% (my particular situation) this may feel like a crisis.
But for the vast - and i do mean vast - majority of homeowners, the crisis doesn't exist in any meaningful, personal way. And many of them aren't aware of any crisis at all.
If you believe everything you read, then you might believe a story the
Chronicle just published. The paper pointed out the real
estate market here is the city was just fine. "Superstar cities defy
downturn" was the headline...That's an odd thing to say considering
the only stories I can remember in the past year in the Chronicle have
talked about the
slowing sales, dropping prices and how much worse the market can get in the
Bay Area.
So along the lines of truth in reporting, let's talk about how much worse
the market can get in Los Angeles...
According to the L.A. Times, "The median listing price in greater
L.A.slipped by $500 a day. Over the past week... "
"The inventory of unsold homes and condos slipped over the past week,
to 41,838. Inventory is still pacing 32.3% ahead of year-ago levels."
Not much need for clarification.... The facts speak for themselves
A few days back, Jeff wondered if specializing in niche properties was a good strategy for brokers and sales agents. I commented that I couldn't speak broadly, but that Rene Adelman of Marin Modern, which specializes in mid-century modern and modern homes, especially classic Eichler properties, seemed to be doing pretty well.
Marin, CA (PRWEB) March 10, 2008 -- Marin Modern Real Estate, an independent residential real estate brokerage and leading authority on modern and architectural homes in Marin and San Francisco County, announced the addition of Sandi Bowman and Erika Davito to their sales team.
Now, I could be wrong, but I don't think very many SF Bay Area agencies are currently expanding their sales teams.
LOS ANGELES (AP) -- Median home prices plunged in many of California's most populous counties in February, with Southern California leading the slide with an overall drop of 17.9 percent compared to a year earlier, according to new housing data released Thursday.
The drops reflect a deepening housing crisis in the state, which saw home values soar during the housing boom then decline sharply in most areas.
Median home prices fell this year in 15 major counties, DataQuick Information Systems said.
...In the nine counties of the San Francisco Bay Area, the median price fell 11.6 percent to $548,000 compared to a year earlier and 17.6 percent from the region's peak median price of $665,000 last summer. Bay Area prices were essentially flat from January.
...
The nine San Francisco area counties saw a similar slowdown, as sales dropped 36.7 percent last month from February 2007.
Some 3,989 homes were sold in San Francisco, Marin, San Mateo, Napa, Alameda, Sonoma, Contra Costa, Santa Clara and Solano counties. That was up 11.2 percent from January.
I wouldn't get all hot and huffy over that month-to-month increase in sales, either. Go look up the term "dead cat bounce."
For those of you who get your news and information solely from the San
Francisco Chronicle it must be tough. Just a few days ago, I said on this
blog:
"If you believe everything you read, then you might believe a story the
Chronicle just published. The paper pointed out the real
estate market here is the city was just fine. "Superstar cities defy
downturn" was the headline...That's an odd thing to say considering
the only stories I can remember in the past year in the Chronicle have
talked about the slowing sales, dropping prices and how much worse the
market can get in the Bay Area."
In classic Chronicle style the paper returned with this story
Thursday...
"Bay Area homes sales experienced another sluggish month in February
and the median price dipped. Both were hammered by the credit crunch
and an ongoing game of chicken between buyers and sellers, according
to a real estate information report released Thursday.
The total number homes sold in the nine counties that border the bay
dipped below 4,000 for the second month in a row, according to
DataQuick Information Systems, a La Jolla research group. In February,
3,989 new and resale houses and condos changed hands, down 36.7
percent from 6,305 from February 2007.
The median price was $548,000, down 11.6 percent from $620,000 a year
ago, an a 17.6 percent drop from the peak median of $665,000 last June
and July."
Now that I'm done patting myself on the back, I ask you, who can you
believe? =
At 8 a.m. Feb. 6, some 60 people gathered on the steps of City Hall. They were there to protest an annual event, about to be 25 years old, that determines their future as San Francisco homeowners, an event that TIC owner David Silva calls "lottery hell."
The TIC lottery, which began at 9 that morning, is the city's method of controlling how many tenancies in common are allowed to convert into condominiums. Each year, 200 units (which corresponds to about 50 buildings) are picked.
For Silva and his wife, Elizabeth Pepin, who have lost for the past five years, the lottery is an annual reminder of their TIC status. "We're treated like second-class citizens," Silva said. "The city makes us jump through hoops to own a fraction of a house. You'd think the city would be encouraging people to buy property and put down roots."
Mike Sullivan of Plan C, the homeowner-support group that helped organize the protest, agrees with Silva. "Homeownership is inherently good for San Francisco. It's not fair that TIC owners are penalized for wanting something that should be their right."
The lottery was created in 1983. Its original purpose was to slow the conversion of rental properties into condominiums. The hope was that by placing TICs into a sort of holding pattern, real estate speculators looking to flip a property quickly would be discouraged. During the holding pattern, which lasts until the TIC owner wins the lottery, there's little incentive for selling.
I just wanted to point out things could be much worse in San Francisco.
After all, the real estate in Los Angeles continues to tank.
The Median listing price of a home in the greater Los Angeles area slipped by $600 this past week.
Comparatively speaking we have it good. In Marin, while we don’t have weekly numbers to compare apples to apples, the monthly figures indicate home prices are rising here, up $109,571 from December 07 to January 08 (the most recent figures available.)
The Marin County residential adjusted* average selling prices look like this...
Jan 08 $1,238,152
Dec 07 $1,128,581
*Adjusted average does not include the high and low sales data
Inman news is reporting that home sales in both San Francisco and LA are up from huge declines from a year ago... In short that's good news no matter how you look at it...
On the flip side I'm still hearing there are still problems getting jumbo loans. Love to hear from anyone out there who knows otherwise.
One mortgage broker I spoke with this morning said he expected to see things come around in the next couple weeks.
My daily check of 30 year fixed jumbos looks like this...
Bankrate.com puts the average national interest rate for a 30 fixed jumbo at 7.05 percent...
The folks at wellsfargo.com have their 30 year fixed jumbo listed at 8.00 percent...
While they are both on the high side, they are down from a week ago...
SAN FRANCISCO, March 20 /PRNewswire/ -- Trulia.com, the best place to start a real estate search, released a study today indicating that purchasing a home with excellent local schools helps buffer the home from industry downturns. Trulia has analyzed its proprietary real estate data and newly incorporated information on over 125,000 schools and 14,000 districts and found that despite the economic downturn in the real estate market, homes with highly rated local schools across the nation generally maintain or increase their value.
In addition, Trulia has leveraged that data and has solicited on-the-ground feedback from experts on Trulia Voices, Trulia's Real Estate Q&A community, to uncover several cities in major metropolitan areas throughout the U.S. where relative bargains can still be found in cities where the schools receive an education rating of 9 or higher on a 10 point scale, based on standardized test scores as reported by the Department of Education for each state.
"In this uncertain economy, people are really searching for ways to ensure the big purchases they make are going to be sound," said Pete Flint, co-founder and CEO of Trulia. "Despite the tough housing market, there are still areas throughout the country where potential buyers can purchase a home with confidence that not only will their home maintain or grow its value, but their family will also receive a top-notch public education."
Trulia identified nine markets that are a representative cross section of the U.S. that combine high quality public elementary schools and a history of maintaining or increasing value despite a weak economic climate with relative affordability.
Included below is a list of the markets, along with median list prices for the major city within each market, as well as three "educational value" areas that are within 50 miles of the core city. The first alternate city in each list is the Trulia Pick -- the city with the best combination of value and local elementary education in a given market. Median list prices are for March 2008, and year-over-year change is from March 2007 to March 2008.
Here’s a question for you...
What does every kid in San Francisco get for their 5th birthday?
Answer..
A new address in Marin...
It’s a familiar refrain...
“Hello Realtor... My son/daughter will be going into kindergarten next year, and after reviewing the price of private school, it seems to make more sense to use to put the money in a home in a better school district.”
This conversation happens every day in the city, in countless ways, in numerous coffee shop. Every time I walked into a coffee shops in the Marina there is always a group of moms sitting around at table, each pushing their baby stroller back and fourth absentmindedly.... And in this group of Marina Mommies one of them is usually breaking the news to her friends that she’ll be moving the family to Marin...
So I thought it might be interesting to see how well the moving-to-Marin-housing market is doing... I picked three homes coming on the market Monday...
So here are the candidates
Tiburon - $2.900,000 - 4,000 sq. Ft, swimming pool and a perfect view that stretches from one end of San Francisco to beyond the Golden Gate
Mill Valley - $2.900,000 - A near flawless home. Wooded setting and an interior so perfectly crafted it’s been the setting for Pottery Barn catalogs.
Mill Valley - $1,700,000 - Nestled in Mill Valley’s favorite neighborhood, Sycamore Park... Nice yard, wonderful master suite and walking distance to town.
So let’s conduct a test on this blog. Let’s track these three homes and see how quickly they sell. After all, the moving-to-Marin market is hot and supposedly the market for homes above $1.5 million is hot.
I put out a round of phone calls and emails to agents this evening to get some reaction to the good news... yes, it's good news no matter how you look at it... even if it only lasts a month, you're going to at least for the next 30 days stop blaming the press for real estate woes in San Francisco.
Enjoy it for what it is, a brief break in the storm.
I hope to hear back from folks Tuesday, and would love to hear what everyone one else is thinking.
as the emails roll in, i'll post them to the site.
I just got this note from Leah Karp with http://sf2marin.com in response to my request for feedback on the news...
The immediate reality is we have just seen the sharpest drop in housing prices on record. We have a surplus of houses coming through foreclosure that will be hitting the market over the next year and continuing to keep the inventory up. 1/3 of home sales were foreclosed properties and with unemployment increasing, and the bulk of mortgages resetting this year, we will continue to see an increase of foreclosure activity. I believe we will continue to see prices drop this year, nationwide, but we will then, slowly start seeing the inventory decrease, as most new construction has slowed.
From Eva Stoyanov & James Shinbori of http://thesfteam.com
So, here is the bad news. For first-time home buyers who want to get in the market, there are not a lot of "great deals" in SanFrancisco's sought-after neighborhoods. The other bad news is that nice homes in outlying neighborhoods are having a hard time appraising because of slowing sales and dropping values. So, if you are looking for a good deal, you might find one there, but you should plan on holding onto those properties for at least 3 to 7 years.
If you find a below market priced property in a great neighborhood, more than likely it has an odd floor plan, tenants or grossly underpriced to get attention. Last week an underpriced house in the Sunset District received 49 offers. Yes, 49!
We are also noticing that a lot of people from the Peninsula and the East Bay are now interested in moving back to San Francisco. We are also seeing more families staying in the city to raise their children. As a result, homes with 3 bedrooms or more are in high demand, especially in sought after neighborhoods.
Additionally, fixers with great potential are going fast and getting overbid. Most buyers who have been looking and waiting for a deal are still looking.
So, if you're looking in areas with a lot of inventory, be aware that homes are having a harder time appraising. If you are a first time home buyer or hoping to move back to San Francisco, get ready to compete for desirable properties.
In the latest edition of the S & P Case Shiler Home Price indices, something I’ve talked about on this blog before, home prices in San Francisco were down 2.9 percent in January and down 13.2 percent for the same period year over year.
Now this has got to be confusing for folks buying or selling homes. Why you ask?
Only two weeks ago the headline in the Chronicle was “Superstar Cities Defy
Downturn.” A story I pointed out was probably a bit misleading...
On March 09th Carol Lloyd for the Chronicle wrote:
“As the real estate market continues to behave like a folded paper "cootie catcher" with radically divergent fortunes depending on which flap you open, I've been scratching my
head that places like San Francisco, Albany and Sausalito are not following the downward trend with the rest of the dirt patches we call home.”
Don’t worry I’ll have my buddy Bob over at the Wall Street Journal send Carol a complimentary subscription first thing in the morning. Certainly can’t hurt.
Even with all the seemingly bad news, I just got of the phone with one of the top agents in the City and they tells me things are wonderful. One of their listings yet to come on the market, already has offers lined up... I should mention the list price is going to be above 5 million.
I don’t know what to believe anymore. But I am closer to declaring it a buyers market. I’ve always dreamed about about making my first proclamation. This could be it...
But I want to hear from those of you in the trenches... Is it a buyer’s market yet?
Just called the three agents with the listings I spoke of on Monday (seeing posting and photos below), and here is the latest...
Tiburon 2.9 million
Goes on brokers’ open this week... No calls or viewings...
Mill Valley 2.9 million
Nothing to report.. On brokers’ open this week...
Mill Valley 1.7 million
The house was open on Sunday, and as expected had a good crowd... There have been plenty of calls about the property and a couple showings. It’s on brokers’ open this week...
After yesterday’s proclamation of a real estate market gone bad, I got a few calls from agents offering evidence to the contrary...
photo credit: McGuire Real Estate
According to those in the know, Neal Ward’s (McGuire Real Estate) listing at 2939 Divisadero (see photo above) went on $3,850,000 and Wednesday wrapped up a very short run on the MLS with 10 offers... According to sources, the final price will be North of $4,500,000.
Another example I was told of was a loft in SOMA... Came on at $699,000, went for $15,000 over asking...
Now I’m hearing that this Friday Malin Giddings will be the agent listing for 2848 Union... Asking price: $5,000,000...
Agents are also telling me there are a lot of private deals going on... Plenty of sellers trying to “Stay off the MLS ”... That’s because the buyers for the good properties don’t want to be caught in a bidding war while sellers don’t want to go through the process of prepping their homes for sale...
____
I was told there is a lot of stuff in contract that never made its way to the MLS... Private deals are all the rage...
A top agent in Marin on tour in the city said agents were “begging” to write an offer for a $3,500,000 million dollar property only hours after it went on the market.
Here’s a sampling of what else I heard..
1. San Francisco is no place for new agents
2. Agents with the best negotiating skills are in demand
3. Money is tough to come by
4. It’s all about who you know
5. And the good agents are plenty busy
If you have any tips, news or know something about the next big deal, feel free to drop me a line...
i can be reached at jeff@realestateconvergence.com
The owners of the Chronicle have cut a deal to seek out other uses for not only the current site of the City's hometown paper, but the adjoining land as well.
Commissions are rising. That's the word on the street at least.
In fact, I spent time today with an office manager who
works for a multi-office brokerage. She's eyed several of the contracts that
have passed through the office recently and says for the first time in two
years agents are getting a full three percent on both ends of the deal
again...
This goes against everything we've been hearing and this could be the
beginning of a welcome change. Because we've all been told the internet,
discount brokerages and competition would drive down commissions.
So I asked around. While not everyone agreed commissions were rising, some
Realtors are seeing the tide turn. They say: Agents are having to carry
houses longer, which means picking up the expenses for longer staging longer and more marketing...They need to cover those costs, so commissions are higher.
According to a new study, "Redfin customers in Seattle and San
Francisco paid less for their homes than those who purchased homes
through other brokers in those regions, according to a report released
today by the Seattle online real estate company."
For those of you who don't remember, when Redfin Real Estate arrived
in town there was a lot of talk, and a lot of worrying about how it
would change the face of real estate in San Francisco... The company arrived
with a brilliant track record from its home town of Seattle, and a
lot of cash on hand. San Francisco was described as the perfect place
for Redfin to set up shop with a highly educated and tech-savvy population
and a red hot real estate market where it seemed anyone could sell a home and a tech
savvy populous.
In the words of Redfin, "Redfin is an online real estate brokerage
that puts you in charge of buying or selling your home... We combine
listings direct from every broker with data on past sales &
days on market... Our local agents guide you on a price and negotiate
the best deal... Our online tools make the paperwork easy."
The study is an interesting read, but one highlight of the Redfin paid
for report... Redfin only sold 31 homes in San Francisco between
February 2007 and February 2008. Not a huge test sample.
Last Friday I posted, (see below) that real estate agents in San Francisco are again asking for six percent... Three days later the NY Times is making the very same point I did... To be more exact I wrote:
“Agents are having to carry houses longer, which means picking up the expenses for longer staging longer and more marketing.”
The NY Times wrote...
“Brokers say that the current market is requiring them to be more creative, to spend not only more money but also more time and effort to make a sale.”
Doing my best to keep the readers of this blog out front..
Everyone wants to be number one... The entire foundation of March Madness is built upon being number one... But out this week is the list of Riskiest Real Estate Markets in America... Now you understand what I’m talking about... It’s the list no one wants to top...
The good folks at Forbes Magazine assembled the list...
10. Phoenix
9. Tampa
8. Denver
7. Sacramento
6. Las Vegas
5. Miami
4. St. Louis
3. Cleveland
2. Orlando
1. Detroit
The coordinators of Sunday's auction of 41 units at the new Eight Orchids condominium midrise in Oakland billed the event as a means of finding the actual market value for such homes. If true, the results may be bad news for developers and great for buyers.
Among the dozen transactions recorded by The Chronicle, sales prices ranged between 25.3 and 34 percent off the original asking price. That's well below the 16.9 annual percent drop in median resale condo values or the 21.2 percent decline for all new homes in Alameda County, according to a February report from DataQuick Information Systems.
"The market has definitely humbled us," said Stuart Gruendl, chief executive officer of project developer BayRock Residential of Oakland. "But at the same time, our heads are above water and the property is succeeding."
