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February 27, 2008

The News Isn't All Bad... You Just Have to Know Who to Ask...

Bay Area home sales hit new low

I’m going to come right out and say it: there’s no real way to sugar coat the real estate news of the past 24 hours.

According to the Chronicle, here’s the worst of it...

“In the Bay Area, sales declined 39.3 percent while the median price fell 3.9 percent from a year ago to $691,390, the association said....

“Sales of existing homes nationwide fell by 12.7 percent in 2007, the biggest decline in 25 years, and are down 20 percent from their all-time high set in 2005, the final year of a five-year housing boom that saw sales and prices soar to record levels.”

Here is my take:

A 3.9 percent decline is a far cry from a disaster. Two years ago it wasn’t uncommon to find a home not selling for asking... Homes might even have sold 3.9 percent less than asking... But it wasn’t the end of the world.

If I told you two years ago your dream house was on sale for 4 percent off the asking price, would you have decided not to buy the place? No, you would have jumped all over that chance..

If this is the worst of times (avoided half a cliche) and homes have fallen a mere 3.9 percent from a year ago, I think we’re all safe in saying what we’re seeing is a mild correction. Back when the market was en fuego, everyone was saying homes were overpriced.

4. And finally... Several agents I spoke to today have told me both the numbers for San Francisco and Marin are for 2008.

So here’s is my bottom line... Is there anyone out there who didn’t expect prices to drop?

Posted by Jeff Brooks on February 27, 2008 06:44 AM |

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My condo in an iffy SF nabe has fallen from about 435k to 299k in less than a year. Foreclosures in the nabe.

That's a bit more than than 4 points, my friend. I'm not underwater, and my mortgage is solid as a rock (2003 - 30year fixie, 5.1 %). But I can hear the waves rising.

Posted by: Bill Quick [TypeKey Profile Page] | February 29, 2008 08:29 PM

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