Tidal Wave of Selling to Come?

German Property Funds to Sell $3.6 Billion of Trophy Assets

SEB ImmoInvest is seeking to sell a 50 percent stake in Potsdamer Platz, a collection of 19 buildings valued at 1.46 billion euros that includes the Grand Hyatt Berlin hotel and the Arkaden shopping center. It’s looking to sell other assets, including a San Francisco office building valued at 159 million euros.

Here’s the rub a lot of folks aren’t really looking at. If the Eurozone falls apart, taking with it (or, actually, the other way around) banks and investment companies, a lot of this sort of liquidation is going to hit the US commercial market almost immediately. San Francisco is especially vulnerable, since European investors consider the entire place a trophy property.

Island In the Storm

San Francisco Bay’s Red Rock island holds varied history

Red Rock Island is the only privately owned island in the bay.

Mostly deserted for ages though oft explored and rather storied, the curious landmass in northern San Francisco Bay known as Red Rock Island remains on the market – this time listed at $9 million. Spanning nearly 6 acres and reaching 172 feet above water at its highest point, the island straddles three counties, Marin, S.F., and Contra Costa.

I’m actually kinda surprised one of our local billionaires hasn’t picked this up as a potential trophy property. Properly developed, it could be an absolutely unique home – with all the amenities of the Bay Area close at hand

A Man, A Plan…Oh, Wait – That’s Something Else

 

Swig unloads One Beach St. for $36.5M – San Francisco Business Times

The Swig Co. and joint venture partner Angelo, Gordon & Co. have sold One Beach Street, a 97,000-square-foot office building in the North Waterfront area of San Francisco. The buyer, San Diego-based REIT American Assets, paid approximately $36.5 million for the property.

The Swig Co. acquired One Beach Street in an all-cash transaction in April 2008 with the intention of recapitalizing the asset and stabilizing the property’s cash flow before selling to an investor with a longer-term investment horizon for the building.

After forming the joint venture with Angelo, Gordon in the fall of 2008, The Swig Co. refinanced the property and negotiated long term, value add leases with the property’s major tenants, which include SKYY Spirits 




, SB Architects, and Alliant University.

“This is an excellent, high-quality brick and timber” creative office building in an exciting area of the city, and we are delighted to be able to execute on our investment strategy for the property, as planned.

Congratulations. It looks as if Swig managed to do exactly what it planned to do. And in these uncertain times, especially for real estate, that can be considered quite an accomplishment.

Here Come the Bottom Fishers!

 

Related Cos. Closes $825 Million Distressed Real Estate Fund – Businessweek

Related’s strategy is to purchase distressed debt on properties with the goal of taking ownership of the buildings “through a consensual transaction,” according to Joanna Rose, a spokeswoman. The company’s ability to handle construction, sales, management, leasing and other real estate services on its own will be a competitive advantage, Blau said.

“Our whole idea was to do all those deals that require heavy execution where there’s less competition so pricing is better,” he said today in a telephone interview. “From the investor’s perspective, they know who is doing the work and they have confidence in our abilities as an operator.”

It’s called “bottom fishing,” folks, and it’s a good sign. Really.

Nikko: Doing Well by Doing Good

 

Hotel Nikko San Francisco Awarded for Community Service by PCMA – MarketWatch

SAN FRANCISCO, Jan 09, 2012 (BUSINESS WIRE) –
The Professional
Convention Management Association (PCMA), one of the world’s leading
organizations for meeting and event professionals, has selected Hotel
Nikko San Francisco for its prestigious Annual Spirit Award. The
Spirit Award honors an organization extensively involved in helping
people in need. The award will be presented at PCMA’s 56th annual
meeting, January 8-11, in San Diego.

In its announcement of the 2011 award winner, PCMA explained its choice
of Hotel Nikko San Francisco: “The relatively small number of employees
at this San Francisco property have made a huge impact in the community,
volunteering over 1,200 hours annually…. The total number of volunteer
hours equates to nearly $50,000 a year, in company time, donated by the
hotel – a major feat for a stand-alone property.”

Congrats to the Nikko organization and the employees of the hotel!

Yes, We Are Indeed Special

Commercial real estate stalls after rebounding – latimes.com

Commercial real estate sees price hikes lose steam

Southern California office and apartment values are still weaker than most other major markets, analyst Peter Rothemund said. Above, offices in downtown Los Angeles.
(Lawrence K. Ho, Los Angeles Times / June 30, 2010)

 

 

U.S. commercial real estate values are drifting sideways after a two-year rally, analysts said.

Prices for offices, warehouses, shopping centers and apartment buildings in major cities rebounded to within 10% of their historic highs before leveling out six months ago, according to Green Street Advisors Inc. of Newport Beach.

“I think people are used to values going up or down,” analyst Peter Rothemund said, adding that it’s not abnormal for prices to be flat.

Rothemund blames the stall on a tug of war between investors’ desire to take advantage of low interest rates for buying real estate and their fear that the economy might falter and prevent them from making money on property.

Southern California office and apartment values are still weaker than most other major markets, Rothemund said. San Francisco and other cities that are home to strong business sectors such as technology are doing better at leasing up offices and driving up rents.

Yep. As usual, San Francisco is the exception that underlines the rule.

Gives “Cultural Wasteland” A Whole New Meaning

 

Retailers’ e-ticket out of real estate – MarketWatch First Take – MarketWatch

But there’s another curious trend in this mix. E-commerce is thriving.

 

While online sales are not new, they made major headway this season. IHS Global Insight’s U.S. Economist Chris Christopher estimates 2011 fourth-quarter retail sales on the Internet hit about $60 billion, a robust 13% increase over the year-ago period.

 

While there are still people who thrill at the thought of swarming into stuffy stores to do battle over the bargain bins, others will do anything to avoid it. (“I’d love to go to the mall. Just as soon as I rotate the car’s tires. Again.”)

 

More retailers understand that a slick website is the gateway to the reluctant shopper. They also realize that it gives them a good excuse to shed real estate.

 

Commercial real estate, once a solid investment, for many companies has turned into a ball and chain of costly, underutilized space. This is especially true for some of the big, traditional department-store chains.

This is a medium term trend that is only beginning to play out as a move toward technology playing an ever greater role in all aspects of our daily lives. One issue holding back the move is that a satisfactory solution to the last mile problem has not yet been formulated. But in some cases, for some industries, the solution has been found, and you can see the results right here in San Francisco. Doubt me?

Okay, how many large chain bookstores, video stores, or record stores do you see in San Francisco these days?

That’s right. Pretty much…none.

Well, I Was Right About That Part, At Least

Area still feeling effects of real estate crash | LoanSafe

(Source: By Rachel Raskin-Zrihen Times-Herald, Vallejo, Calif.) – Solano County homeowners lost about half their property’s value since the housing bubble burst, which, like elsewhere, seriously impacted the area’s economy, experts say.

Four years after the recession hit in December 2007, five Bay Area counties have lost a collective $386 billion in home value, according to the real estate information gathering firm, DataQuick. Among those, Contra Costa County was hit the hardest, followed by Alameda, Santa Clara, San Mateo and San Francisco.

As I predicted from the very beginning of the housing debacle, San Franciso was hit least hard by the crash.

Resolutions for a Happy Real Estate New Year

Resolutions for home sellers in 2012

A sale pending sign hangs in front of

Photo credit: AP Photo | A sale pending sign hangs in front of a single-family home in Brookline, Mass. The number of Americans who signed contracts to buy homes in November rose to the highest level in a year and a half. (Dec. 27, 2011)

Each year we post our financial resolutions for home sellers for the new year. With the current state of our financial system, you need to keep your financial house and home in good shape.

I know someone who sold a house this year. It took them seven months, and they had to cut their price a lot lower than they wanted, but they finally got a good offer and the property is scheduled to close by the end of the year.

Some pretty good stuff here. Read the whole thing for the detailed suggestions.

I’d Love to Wish You A Happy and Prosperous New Years, But….

Huge loss in home values cratered the Bay Area economy | LoanSafe

(Source: By Pete Carey, San Jose Mercury News, Calif.) –Bay Area homes have lost more than a third of a trillion dollars in value since the housing bubble burst about four years ago. And in the process, they have taken a big chunk of the economy with them.

During the boom, homeowners borrowed against that mountain of money, fueling a huge surge in everything from yacht sales in Silicon Valley to home heating upgrades in Antioch. Later, when home prices collapsed, their loss of money and confidence crushed those same businesses.

Adding more strain, while the equity went away, the debt remained, further hobbling those who hung on to their homes.

While the devastation of the housing crisis has been well reported — foreclosures; people stuck in homes they can’t sell; houses sold for a fraction of their value — one issue that has received less attention is the remarkable loss of housing values and its impact on the economy. Home equity loans, for example, are running at about one-tenth the level they hit four years ago.

But it’s probably not overstating the issue to say that the economy’s ultimate recovery depends on restoring stability to the housing market. “Consumer spending won’t fully recover until the housing market stabilizes and people feel that their main assets — their home — will grow in value,” said Jed Kolko, chief economist with the real estate website Trulia. And consumer spending makes up about two-thirds of the American economy.

In a reversal of the “wealth effect”

Yep, and we probably haven’t seen the worst of it yet. Between the overhang of foreclosures yet to hit the market, and the possible surge in new foreclosures as increasingly overstretched owners trapped in underwater mortgages finally give up the ghost with a short burst of jingle mail to their bankers (or whatever strange conglomerate now claims to own their property). Remember, unemployment rates aren’t falling because the number of people finding work is rising on a net basis, it is because of tens of thousands of people dropping out of the work force entirely. Those “no longer counts as unemployed” won’t be doing much to boost either the economy in general, or the housing market in particular, either.

Big California Court Decision Due on Redevelopment Funding

San Francisco revitalization money is in the hands of judges | Dan Schreiber | Local | San Francisco Examiner

Future funding for revitalizing blighted areas in San Francisco hinges on the results of a California Supreme Court ruling expected in the coming weeks.

Gov. Jerry Brown pointed to city redevelopment agencies as cash-wasting bureaucracies when he took office in January, and he signed a pair of bills last summer that allow them two options: Go away completely or rely much more heavily on financing from local governments.

The California Redevelopment Association and other groups sued the state in July over the bills, calling them a violation of the 2010 voter-approved Proposition 22, which prevents the state from “raiding” local coffers to make up for its mounting debt.

We should be getting a decision in the next half hour or so. I’ll update this post when we do.

I have a dog in this hunt, by the way. I bought my townhouse directly across the street from the Hunters Point development, back in 2003, with the expectation that the new homes – 1600 of them, supposedly – would be finished as scheduled by 2008. Here we are, three years later, and not a single unit has been built. There is nothing but a barren hill cut by a few roads. I’d like to see that change, given how far underwater I am on my mortgage….

Commercial Rental to Boom In 2012?

Multifamily’s Future in 2012 | Multi-Housing News Online

In the tightest markets in Northern California and the San Francisco Bay Area, Witten anticipates a 2 percent to 3 percent vacancy rate and rent growth in the 8 percent to 9 percent range.

A lot of the recent focus in the local housing market has been on potential SFH purchases by newly-rich dot.com kids, but for every freshly-minted millionaire, there are a dozen worker bunnies who will be looking for something to rent, even right here in The City.

Nothing New About This

The Luxury Market Is Robust Despite Troubles in Lower Income Brackets – NYTimes.com

World Class Properties

Woodhaven Manor in Woodside, with wine cellar, gym, movie theater and more. Asking $47.5 million.

By AARON GLANTZ
Published: December 17, 2011

Pierre Buljan guided his black Mercedes S.U.V. around the winding roads of the Hillsborough hills and into Atherton, where the mansions of Silicon Valley technology barons hide behind thick stone walls, wrought-iron gates and tall, manicured hedges.  “These people have essentially infinite money,” said Mr. Buljan, who has been a Realtor on the Peninsula for more than 30 years. He pointed at a sloping four-acre property that included a large redwood grove with a private creek.

“If someone falls in love with a property like this,” he said, “the price doesn’t matter.”

During the Great Depression, the extremely rich took hits, but still had plenty of money left on a relative scale, and they spent lavishly, especially on massive properties in places like Newport, Rhode Island, and the Gold Coast of Long Island.

Price “may not matter,” (of course it does – that’s how the rich stay rich – but when price is depressed significantly from what it would be in a normal economy, it stretches the buying power of those who are already wealthy.

A Crying Shame

Sonic Bringing 1 Gbps Fiber to San Francisco – Five Year Build Will Cover ‘Most’ of City | DSLReports.com, ISP Information

“San Francisco is our fastest-growing market for copper delivered Fusion Broadband+Phone service today, so we are very excited to bring our Fiber-optic upgrade process to the city,” insists Sonic CEO Dane Jasper. “There is a huge demand in San Francisco for higher bandwidth services, and fiber is the only long-term way to meet this demand.”

You might recall that AT&T has struggled with their efforts to build cabinets around San Francisco, with opponents taking issue with the cabinets’ impact on property values and overall city aesthetics. AT&T had stated they’d need to install 725 six-foot-tall utility cabinets to cover just a portion of the city with fiber to the node. Sonic says their full fiber deployment will use a more modest 188 outdoor utility cabinets to feed the city.

Sonic, one of the only residential ISPs to not only survive the U.S. CLECpocalypse but go on to build their own network, also already offers fiber services in Sebastopol, California. Customers there can choose service with one or two included phone lines, plus ultra high-speed broadband at 100Mbps for $40 or 1Gbps (1000Mbps) for $70.

The fact that San Francisco, the Queen City of the high tech revolution, has some of the lousiest broadband service in America can be chalked up to a pair of malign influences: First, the tiny cabal of “environmental critics” who oppose any technological improvements on grounds of aesthetics, and, second, a voracious board of supervisors that attempts to extort as much boodle as possible from anybody who tries to do business in The City.

San Francisco: Island In the (Real Estate) Storm

 

Real estate recovery likely to be slow

Fair warning to U.S. real estate players: Resign yourselves to “a slowing grind-it-out recovery” in 2012, as “enduring economic doldrums” continue to weigh heavily on the market.

Your best bets: a small handful of “property-wealth islands,” including San Francisco and San Jose/Silicon Valley, both seen as “primary 24-hour gateways located along global pathways,” according to a report being released today at the Urban Land Institute conference in San Francisco.

San Francisco ranks third out of 51 cities as a place to invest in and develop commercial and multifamily apartment properties and fourth in for-sale home building, with San Jose two or three rungs lower in each category, according to the survey compiled by the institute and PricewaterhouseCoopers.

Way back at the beginning of the real estate collapse, I predicted that, for a number of reasons, San Francisco would ride out the catastrophe better than most places, including most locales in the Bay Area.

So far, that is exactly how things have played out.

Millionaires and Billionaires, Oh, My!

Facebook IPO sparks dreams of riches, adventure | Reuters

Karel Baloun works on his computer at his home in Lafayette, California, December 2, 2011. REUTERS/Robert Galbraith

SAN FRANCISCO |
Fri Dec 9, 2011 5:21am EST

 SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – Travelling to space or embarking on an expedition to excavate lost Mayan ruins are normally the stuff of adventure novels.

 But for employees of Facebook, these and other lavish dreams are moving closer to reality as the world’s No. 1 online social network prepares for a blockbuster initial public offering that could create at least a thousand millionaires.

 

An interesting question will be how many of them will want to plunk down some of those millions on homes in San Francisco. My guess is more than a few will decide to choose the hellish commute in exchange for life in the big city.

Come On, You Know What You Have to Do

Zephyr Real Estate Again Sponsors Food and Toy Drives for the Holidays | California RealEstateRama

San Francisco, CA – December 5, 2011 – (RealEstateRama) — Zephyr Real Estate is once again accepting contributions for the annual Food and Toy drives to benefit those who need a little help this holiday season. As with prior years, the San Francisco Firefighters’ Toy Program and the San Francisco Food Bank are the recipients of the donations from all six offices in San Francisco. To find the nearest Zephyr office to drop off a donation, visit www.zephyrsf.com.

Folks, our business has taken horrific hits over the past several years, and some of our fellows may even need this sort of help from us. Remember, there but the grace of God….

The Numbers Come In

Fed: Commercial Real Estate Still Sluggish

Boston, New York, Chicago, Minneapolis and San Francisco indicated roughly unchanged activity while Philadelphia and Dallas indicated mixed activity. Richmond and St. Louis reported slow activity, although industrial construction had picked up. The Fed said New York and Philadelphia reported generally weak conditions.

Because of all the headline dot.com activity, it’s easy to conclude that commercial is booming in San Francisco, but…apparently not.

Rentals and Web Tech

RentJuice Unveils JuicePress, Enables Turnkey Websites for Real Estate Pros – PR Newswire – sacbee.com

SAN FRANCISCO, Dec. 2, 2011 /PRNewswire/ – RentJuice, the leading provider of rental marketing and networking tools for real estate brokerages and property managers, today unveiled JuicePress, a platform integrated with WordPress that enables turnkey websites for RentJuice customers to differentiate from competitors and connect instantly with prospective tenants.

WordPress is a website publishing platform that includes a template system and accommodates hundreds of plug-ins, both buildable and downloadable. The software is used by over 14.7 percent of Alexa Internet’s “top 1 million” websites and, as of August 2011, powers 22 percent of all new websites. WordPress is currently the most popular content management system (CMS) in use on the Internet and has hundreds of thousands of developers innovating on the platform. As a result, JuicePress users will be able to easily create comprehensive websites that are ready for immediate use, that are optimized for search engines and that enable differentiation from competitors – like RentJuice, WordPress is completely customizable.

I’ve used WordPress for years. This blog is run on the WordPress platform. It’s robust, simple to operate, and highly customizable. Putting together a purpose-built real estate package based on this platform seems like a fine notion to me.

Yeah, I’m Bummed

San Francisco 49ers, Santa Clara secure funding for stadium – ESPN Los Angeles

SANTA CLARA, Calif. — The 49ers are a big step closer to moving from San Francisco to a new stadium about 45 miles south in Santa Clara.

The team and City of Santa Clara announced on Friday that they have secured long-awaited funding for the project.

Goldman Sachs, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch and U.S. Bank have agreed to an $850 million loan with the city’s stadium authority and the 49ers.

The money will cover the bulk of the estimated $1 billion project.

Funding from the National Football League, a hotel tax and city redevelopment funds is expected to make up the difference.

Officials say the loans were the last major piece of the project. The goal is to open the new stadium in 2015.

This pretty much puts the final nail in the coffin of my hopes that San Francisco would build a new stadium for the 49er more or less across the street and down the hill (I would have been able to look down into the stadium from above and watch games from my back patio) from the townhouse I bought back in 2003. This, coupled with the failure of the city to build, as promised, 1600 market-rate pano-bay-view condos also across the street from my home has pretty much wrecked my financial plans for the future, in terms of real estate.

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