By Then It Won’t Matter

A brief note on polling and unemployment data analysis « Hot Air

That’s why people who understand data and surveys look skeptically at the result of the household survey.  It doesn’t mean a conspiracy is in place; it does strongly suggest that this month’s sample of 60,000 households threw an outlier, especially when compared with the establishment survey and other economic data.  If so, it will likely correct itself in the next report.  That’s not “trutherism” or denial, but straightforward data analysis.

Update: Just to remind everyone, the next report comes out before the election — the Friday before, actually.  And if the BLS wanted to cook the numbers, I’m pretty sure they’d have cooked the establishment survey, too, to show more than +114K.

The next survey comes out three days before election day. At that point it’s too late to make much of a difference to the outcome. If you’re going to try to influence this election, the current release is the one you have to use to do it with.

About Bill Quick

I am a small-l libertarian. My primary concern is to increase individual liberty as much as possible in the face of statist efforts to restrict it from both the right and the left. If I had to sum up my beliefs as concisely as possible, I would say, "Stay out of my wallet and my bedroom," "your liberty stops at my nose," and "don't tread on me." I will believe that things are taking a turn for the better in America when married gays are able to, and do, maintain large arsenals of automatic weapons, and tax collectors are, and do, not.

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