First, a taste of tasty Allahpundit schadenfreude:
I’m guessing Cantor takes 65-70 percent, capping a glorious night for fans of immigration reform.
VA-7 GOP Primary FieldCantor44.43% (28,603 votes)Brat55.57% (35,775 votes)
he immediate policy implications of this are clear: Immigration reform is completely dead. It was a very longshot before Tuesday night. Now, it’s 100 percent over. Cantor’s loss shows how toxic the subject is for any incumbent Republican. It doesn’t bode well for Senator Marco Rubio’s presidential ambitions as well.
You know what’s really scaring the crap out of all these pro-scamnesty folks now? They can’t trust their polling on the issue any more. According to their polling, everybody wants scamnesty, it is a winning platform, and naysayers are only a small, bitter minority of racists and xenophobes.
And then…BOOM. Cantor gets his ass stomped into mush on the issue, the first sitting House Majority Leader (the third most powerful Republican currently in government) to be defeated in a primary in more than a 100 years.
Nor was it even close, and most of the usual excuses have been kicked out from under him as well: First, he won with 80% of the vote two years ago, and lost 55-45% this year. Nor was it a matter of a minuscule turnout dominated by anti-immigration crazies. More Virginians voted this year than they did two years ago. And even his own internal polling showed him going into the election beating Brat 68-32.
That’s some Beat on the Brat, isn’t it (obligatory geezer rock reference)?
Now everybody is going to be wondering just how they could have been so badly wrong about this race, and this issue. My guess? Opposing scamnesty has been so demonized by establishments on both sides of the aisle that people are afraid to tell pollsters what they really think, lest it get out and everybody think they are racist.
Here’s a prediction: When they look at the entrails of this vote, they’re going to find that Cantor lost every single demographic – including Hispanics.
That ought to send shivers up a few spines, don’t you think? Of course, the same hacks that will tell us that a two point loss in some nothing district in a bright blue state is absolute proof that the Tea Part is dead, dead, dead will now bull-rush the morning talkers to explain how this really doesn’t mean anything, and scamnesty is still the number one goal of the GOP establishment. We’ll see how well that works for them.
In the meantime, the smoking and boozing lamp is lit. Celebrate. We don’t get to do that very often, but now is the time. And I’m cracking open a fresh bottle of The Macallan to sip while I toast marshmellows over the smoking, ruined corpse of Eric Cantor’s public political career.
Oh, don’t worry about him. He’ll to on to become a super lobbyist, probably for the Chamber of Commerce or La Raza. Not that there’s a hell of a lot of difference there.
UPDATE: Now Ace is worried about the same thing I’ve been worrying about for months now: The Big Boner Betrayal.
A lot of people are saying amnesty is now dead. Here’s an alternative theory, Boehner says screw it, this isn’t any fun and goes out in a blaze of glory by passing it with Democrat votes and retires as Speaker in January.
I’m wondering, though, if this scenario might some just a tiny bit less likely now: Boehner’s boodleboys may want him to stay in office to prevent a total conservative takeover of the House.
You know what the biggest takeaway from this is for conservatives? Hope. They just about had a lot of us convinced they had crushed us, that the people had no chance against an entrenched gang with massive powers, unlimited money (Cantor outspent Brat something like 30-1 as I recall), and connections all over the Ruling Party and the Ruling Class.
Now we know better. And so do they.
Hey, pass that bottle over here, okay?