A first-quarter contraction is looking more and more likely.
A couple weeks ago, the Commerce Departmentsaid U.S. economic output expanded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.1% in the first three months of the year. A near-stall for the economy, for sure, but at least it wasn’t worse.
That initial estimate was the government’s best guess, using the data available at the time. Based on more up-to-date figures, including the March trade data released last week, private forecasters now expect gross domestic product contracted in the first quarter for the first time in three years.
Look for stocks to go through the roof as “investors” anticipate a huge new money gusher aimed at heading off the possibilities of another “recession.” (Sneer quotes because we’ve been in a depression going on six years now).
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