Why Boehner Will Push Through Scamnesty By the End of This Summer
Bill Quick

Boehner: Oh, hey, I was just teasing my caucus by mocking them over immigration « Hot Air

Via the Free Beacon, can lefties and righties join hands and proclaim our mutual disgust at this guy for endlessly talking out of both sides of his mouth on this subject? I feel like I’ve been writing the same two posts, alternating weekly, for the past year: “Boehner vows to make immigration reform happen” and “Boehner blames Obama for failure of immigration reform.” Last week was dominated by the first type; this week, apparently, will be dominated by the second.

I’ve got a better idea, Allahpundit.  How about we talk about what is really going on here?

We know that the deep pockets GOP donors desperately want immigration “reform,” and are willing to do almost anything to get it.  We know further that many GOP strategists believe (although on little or no actual evidence) that pushing scamnesty through will help the GOP electorally.  Although some of them are realistic enough to understand that scamnesty won’t increase ethnic voting for the GOP, but they hope that taking the issue off the table for this generation will at least keep that vote from eroding.

On the other hand, the Republican conservative grass roots hates the notion of scamnesty, and looks willing to punish, at least in part, any GOP representatives who votes for it.  And this is an ominous piece of news for the party as it heads into what should be a huge win in the fall elections this year.

What to do, what to do?

I think it’s pretty obvious.

John Boehner is going to attempt to forge a bare majority, involving as few Republican Representatives as possible – and as many of them from “safe” districts on this issue, as he can.

He’s going to shove it through the House on that basis, after which it will go to the Senate sometime late this summer, where Harry Reid will let the GOP Senators scream and yell, and then hammer it through anyway, even if he has to suspend the filibuster on legislation in order to get it done.  Why wouldn’t he?  The Democrats have demonstrated a willingness to do whatever is necessary to achieve their long-term goals, and the bottom line for Reid and Obama is that as long as there is a “path  to citizenship” (scamnesty) in the bill, they believe they can count on several million new Democrat voters over the next few years.  So whatever it takes to get it on the books, that’s what they will do.

Then comes the fallout.  First, Boehner will likely either retire, or at least step down from the Speakership.  But almost all of the GOP caucus in the House will be able to run against this scamnesty.  After all, thanks to the mostly Dem coalition forged by Boehner, they didn’t have to vote for it.  

Bingo.  In one fell swoop, scamnesty as an issue dangerous to the Republicans is neutralized.  The Democrats and Boehner will take all the blame (although he might pay no bigger price than losing his Speakership).  About which they (and maybe he) could care less (he’ll bank his payoff later).  They’re already assuming they’ll get their ass kicked this fall, but if they can walk away before the election with one of the biggest prizes in three decades – scamnesty – they’ll consider the trade well worth it.  On top of that, they’ll be able to run this fall on having passed amnesty in the House against the GOP opposition.  Besides, as everybody keeps telling me, they’re going to retake  the Senate in 2016, so what’s the big deal anyway?  They’re out of power except for Backstop Barry and his Veto Pen for the next two years, but that was going to be the case no matter what happened.

Anyway, that’s what I think is going on.  Check me later to see if I called it correctly.

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Bill Quick

About Bill Quick

I am a small-l libertarian. My primary concern is to increase individual liberty as much as possible in the face of statist efforts to restrict it from both the right and the left. If I had to sum up my beliefs as concisely as possible, I would say, "Stay out of my wallet and my bedroom," "your liberty stops at my nose," and "don't tread on me." I will believe that things are taking a turn for the better in America when married gays are able to, and do, maintain large arsenals of automatic weapons, and tax collectors are, and do, not.

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