Exit question: Who’s the biggest winner from that CBS poll up top? Is it really Jeb or is it Rubio? Rubio’s supposed to be DOA because of immigration reform but neither Republican voters nor indies oppose the prospect of him running. If Jeb decides to pass, he’s potentially well positioned as a center-right alternative to Paul and Cruz.
Right. Because, as we all know, Republicans should always pick their Presidential candidates based on polling done two years before the election:
A Gallup Poll from Dec 1978 showed Carter with a huge 57-35 lead over Reagan. Up substantially from a 52-43 lead a few months earlier.
Two years later:
Popular Vote Electoral Vote Ronald Reagan George Bush Republican 43,903,230 50.75% 489 90.9% James Carter Walter Mondale Democratic 35,480,115 41.01% 49 9.1% John Anderson Patrick Lucey Independent 5,719,850 6.61% 0 0.0%