The bad news, as Rauch points out, is this means the Republicans have evolved into a party based on ideology, whereas the Democrats are held together by payoffs. “In 2010, the Democratic Party is a coalition of liberals, conservatives, and moderates … The GOP, however, has become for all practical purposes a conservative party.”
This makes for strange numbers. The Democrats can grow coalitions faster than the conservative numbers increase. The “Republicans’ problem is that core conservative constituencies … are shrinking as a share of the electorate. Core center-left constituencies — minorities, left-leaning women, professionals and socially liberal Millenial Generation voters — are growing.”
I’ve got a different theory. A lot of those new conservatives are abandoning the GOP for independent status because they’ve figured out their isn’t a dime’s worth of difference between the Gentry GOP currently running the party, and Ruling Democrats.