For there to be a deal, Boehner would have to say to the defunders: We tried it your way, it didn’t work, and now we need to move on. There are plenty of Republicans in the House, not to mention Democrats, who would vote to go along with the Senate and pass a settlement of some sort. But for that to happen, Boehner would have to abandon the very people who have been most influenced his decision-making so far. So far, that hasn’t happened.
He’d also have to renege on his word not to pass any bills without a majority of the House GOP behind him, otherwise known as the Hastert Rule. Now, I don’t trust Boehner’s words as far as I can spit a bowling ball, but if he does violate that rule in order to cave to Barack Obama, I think he’s finished as Speaker, and I think he knows it.