The stock market, which has been plunged into a sullen swoon by various recent events, rallied today on news that the redline of chemical weapons was really more of a guideline, prompting this rare short-term punt on our part, which is: buy the stock indices. I think it’s probably good for about four hundred points over the next couple of weeks.
Who knows, actually, why the market decided to halt its skid? Not me, but here my hunch is strong enough to prompt me to action. The initial momentum down was provided by the usual wishy-washy Fed nattering about rates, and that hasn’t been clarified or resolved, mostly because it can’t be, any more than the gibbering of gibbons can be made to forecast the weather. (They are more customarily used to predict climate change, but that’s another topic.)
But with no other reason than the usual suspects (“technical correction” et. al.) for the market to stop sulking than presidential pusinanimalaty (is that a word?) about Syria, we determine that:
1. The money is scared shitless that the Syrians are going to draw us into another open-ended sectarian/jihadist bloodletting.
2. The President just said “No f**king way am I going to do this.”
3. The Russians, Iranians, Saudis and everyone else with skin in the game are vastly relieved to hear it.
4. We might have found a wonderful solution to all the various questions posed by the Middle East, which are really one question, id est: “Is there any way to win this game?”
5. And that answer might well be the one offered by the legendary WOPR of “War Games:” “The only way to win is not to play.” As noted in another post, it’s kind of a “neca eos omnes” transposition into “Let them all kill themselves.”
Either way, it might be refreshing, if disappointing to the “we have to do something” crowd, if the US were to say “Hell, we give up. You guys sort it out yourselves, all of you. The only time we’re interested in you is when you try to leave home.”
So I’m bullish. If II can’t cheer for the good guys — because there aren’t any — then I may as well profit.