Recession? What Recession?
Bill Quick

“The Lid”: GDP Fell .1% In 4th Qtr 2012: Will Obama Blame Fox or Bush?

Is this the start of a recession? According to the US Dept. of Commerce Real gross domestic product (GDP) — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — decreased at an annual rate of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012.  A recession is usually defined  as two consecutive downward GDP quarterly reports.

Keep in mind that this estimate will be revised at the end of February and again at the end of March (which  means it could go down or up).

Given that government numbers are so fiddled with as to be entirely untrustworthy, I always assume that the real situation is far worse than what is being reported.  And anyway, during a Great Depression, the economy will move in and out of formal recessions from time to time.

By the way, for some odd reason, the fact that GDP is actually shrinking seems to have escaped the mainstream media entirely. Why is that, do you suppose?

UPDATE: Unexpectedly!

But hey – the stock market!

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Bill Quick

About Bill Quick

I am a small-l libertarian. My primary concern is to increase individual liberty as much as possible in the face of statist efforts to restrict it from both the right and the left. If I had to sum up my beliefs as concisely as possible, I would say, "Stay out of my wallet and my bedroom," "your liberty stops at my nose," and "don't tread on me." I will believe that things are taking a turn for the better in America when married gays are able to, and do, maintain large arsenals of automatic weapons, and tax collectors are, and do, not.

Comments

Recession? What Recession? — 6 Comments

  1. I am aghast!!

    Who could possibly have imagined this would happen!?!?

    /sarc

    (When the same – or similar – figures show up, despite all the manipulating and “miraculous receding of the Tides Of Recession”, at the end of the next couple of quarters, simply cue up and repeat the above, of course…)

    The Obamanation Recovery proceeds apace -

    Gonna be really, really tough to hang this one on Bush – though I’m sure some will try.

  2. The really bad news is that the government borrowed $1,276 billion (increased debt) in 2012, which enabled spending, which added into the GDP figures for the year.

    That borrowing-spending is 8.1% of the $15,829 billion total 2012 GDP. But GDP only grew by 2.2%. Without that borrowing-spending, GDP declined by -6.1% from 2011. That is the disaster which government blowout spending (“fiscal policy”) is covering up.

    Here is the personal parallel (numbers rounded). Fred counts his income as $50,000 in 2011, and $51,100 in 2012, up by 2.2%. He borrowed $4,140 (8.1%) of that in 2012, and considers that part of his income (GDP).

    Fred’s accountant tries to tell Fred the truth. Fred’s real income was $46,960 = ($51,100 – $4,140). That is down by $3,040 from 2011, falling -6.1% .

    The government is giving us numbers which count borrowing as income, like crazy Fred.

    - -
    Statistical Prosperity

    When government hires more workers, their pay and benefits are counted as increasing GDP no matter what they do or accomplish. Obviously, they now have a job, so the employment statistics improve immediately. This is a no brainer! It is a two’fer.

    - -
    CNS News – Total debt figures

    US Bureau of Economic Analysis – GDP Growth rate for 2012

    • You really should stop (further) confusing us with actual facts like that, Andrew -

      I mean, don’t you think we already feel bad enough, having to confront every day (as nearly all actual net tax-payers do, in one way or another) the obvious disconnect between what we see happening in our own lives, and what our Gubmint and the M(ainly)S(lime)M(ediamuggers) constantly tell us is happening?…

      BTW – don’t know which part of this is which – but the latest “good news/bad news” Gubmint dealie I know of is this: Due to being unable to totally cover up all evidence that the real, live, for-sure Cost Of Living went up in the past year for everyone in the dear, ol’ U.S.A., the Social(ist) (In)Security folksies sent out notices to all current recipients of Gubmint “entitlement” largesse, stating that a fantabulous 1.77% increase is now coming to said recipients (that being the part of the actual C.O.L. increase the DeeCee folk were unable to successfully lie out of existence); the other shoe that dropped, however, was: All such recipients who, during 2012, were so audacious as to actually continue generating income for themselves sufficient to cause their piece of the largesse to be considered “taxable” (read: subject to further Gubmint theft, in part or whole), are declared to now be required to “contribute” (read: have confiscated by Gubmint) an additional sum to the total deducted for “their fair share” (read: further Gubmint theft) for their Medicare/Medicaid (formerly supposedly “free” to recipients) coverage(s).

      Simple coincidence, of course, that the added amount they must “contribute” (see above) equals or exceeds the dollar-amount represented by that munificent 1.77% C.O.L. “increase” reluctantly admitted-to by the Gubmint economists chief economic liars.

      Resulting in – ta da!! – a net non-increase or loss in the total amount of that monthly largesse.

      Let that be a lesson to all you greedy grubbers who actually dare to continue trying to generate income beyond what your marvelous Gubmint has decreed you are permitted to be allotted…

      “We are Da Gubmint!! WE will decide what you MAY be permitted to actually earn, especially once you have accepted – based upon OUR prior decrees – the “entitlements” (read: crumbs of Gubmint welfare) that WE deem sufficient!!”

      They own it all, y’know – just ask ‘em, they’ve got rules and plans to cover it all…

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