Rosy Scenario
Bill Quick

Morgan Stanley’s Doom Scenario: Major Recession in 2013 – US Business News – CNBC

The bank’s most optimistic scenario forecasts GDP growth of 4 percent in 2012 compared to around 3.1 percent this year.

Eh? Three percent this year? This year being 2012?

What are they forecasting for US GDP growth in the 4th quarter? Ten percent?

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Bill Quick

About Bill Quick

I am a small-l libertarian. My primary concern is to increase individual liberty as much as possible in the face of statist efforts to restrict it from both the right and the left. If I had to sum up my beliefs as concisely as possible, I would say, "Stay out of my wallet and my bedroom," "your liberty stops at my nose," and "don't tread on me." I will believe that things are taking a turn for the better in America when married gays are able to, and do, maintain large arsenals of automatic weapons, and tax collectors are, and do, not.

Comments

Rosy Scenario — 6 Comments

  1. I reckon it would have to be ~5% in the 4th quarter to give an annual growth of 3% (and that doesn’t take into account pending revisions to the 3rd quarter number, which will probably go down). But I’m probably wrong since I’m just a simple engineer, and everyone knows that math like this is really, really hard.

    • So, I’m thinking if the first three quarters total 5.5, and we need 12 to come up with and average growth of 3.0/quarter, we’re gonna need 6.5 in the fourth. But hey, I’m a writer, and we’re even more stupid than engineers when it comes to that math stuff, which is very very very hard.

  2. You’re absolutely correct Bill — I said I was probably wrong, since this was a fast, off-the-top of my head estimate, and I guessed the 2nd quarter growth was 1.75% (I didn’t look it up). Either way, it will probably need to be even higher, after they revise the 3rd quarter. But we both know ALL these numbers are cooked.

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