Under the Unemployment Hood
Bill Quick

Calculated Risk: September Employment Report: 114,000 Jobs, 7.8% Unemployment Rate

The Labor Force Participation Rate increased slightly to 63.6% in September (blue line. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

Okay, I can’t make 114k “new” jobs plus an increasing labor force participation add up to a .3 drop in the unemployment rate.

Of course, I’m not a smart statistician working for the Obureau of Lies and Statistics.

And this:

Posted in Employment permalink
Bill Quick

About Bill Quick

I am a small-l libertarian. My primary concern is to increase individual liberty as much as possible in the face of statist efforts to restrict it from both the right and the left. If I had to sum up my beliefs as concisely as possible, I would say, "Stay out of my wallet and my bedroom," "your liberty stops at my nose," and "don't tread on me." I will believe that things are taking a turn for the better in America when married gays are able to, and do, maintain large arsenals of automatic weapons, and tax collectors are, and do, not.

Comments

Under the Unemployment Hood — 1 Comment

  1. Note this was the last employment report before the election.

    There were revisions upwards to the prior two months that made this a decent net gain report. However, similiar good but not great gain months with a decreasing participation rate only resulted in a 0.1 move down in the unemployment rate. So your basic premise re how did this middling number with an upward move in the participation rate result in a 0.3 move down in the unemployment rate when in the past it wouldn’t have moved the needle at all? It just don’t add up.

    Must be that New Math.