BBC News – Tables are turning on Greek debt deal

But what’s less often noticed is that the balance of power around the negotiating table has also shifted lately; against the Eurozone institutions and politicians who most want to see a deal, and in favour of the Greeks themselves.

There are three reasons for this shift.

First, the need for more debt relief for Greece has become even more blindingly apparent.

Second, it has become clear that the official sector has to contribute if it’s going to happen politely.

Finally, and more quietly, the Greek government has slashed its way to a primary budget surplus: as of now it is only borrowing money to pay off the debt. That could change things quite a bit.

That is enormous leverage in favor of Greece. What it means is that Greece can tell the Eurozone to eff off, default on all those crushing loans, and end up on balance better off. Sure, tough times and all, but the poison will be on the way to being purged, thanks to that primary surplus, and, as did New Zealand, Greece will be free to begin to rebuild their economy free of the shackles of the EU.

Of course, the damage to the EU itself in such a case would be incalulable, but the EU is doomed anyway. A Greek walkaway at this point would only hasten the inevitable.

UPDATE: This is not to predict that the Greeks won’t then continue to screw things up on a grand scale. It fact, they probably will. But at least they’ll be doing it on their own terms, not as fellow suckers enslaved in a gigantic scam designed to enrich and empower France and, to a lesser extent, Germany.